Shares of TMC The Metals Company (TMC 3.89%) rallied 20.3% on Monday, after the had stock plunged last Friday.
TMC is a highly speculative company seeking to mine critical metals such as nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese, among others, from the ocean floor in deep water.
While the stock sold off Friday after President Trump threatened to escalate the current trade war between the U.S. and China, TMC rallied hard today in a recovery, after a weekend post from the president hinted at de-escalation.
However, the tit-for-tat highlighted the overall importance of critical materials, likely adding to the rally.
NASDAQ: TMC
Key Data Points
Miners of critical materials rallied today
President Trump's Friday rebuke of China and threat of higher retaliatory tariffs came on the heels of China implementing new export controls on rare earths minerals last Thursday. China controls about 70% of global rare earths supply, which are critical metals used in a variety of industrial and military applications.
Trump's Truth Social post on Friday sent most stocks reeling, with the exception of U.S.-based rare earths stocks, which actually rallied on Friday. TMC The Metals Company doesn't produce rare earths -- actually it doesn't mine for anything yet, as it's still waiting for permits from the U.N.'s International Seabed Authority to begin operations. So it was another one of the stocks that fell hard in the aftermath of Trump's Friday post.
However, this weekend, President Trump seemed to ease back on his threat, posting that President Xi Jinping just "had a bad moment" when announcing the rare earths export controls, elaborating: "Don't worry about China, it will all be fine!"
The pulling back from a potential reignited trade war with China gave the markets a "risk-on" rally today that sent speculative and high-beta stocks soaring. TMC certainly qualifies as that type of stock.
However, TMC's rally may have been outsized due the realization that critical materials should also see a bigger spotlight in the near future amid protectionist trade wars. While TMC doesn't mine rare earths, the U.S. still needs plenty of these other minerals it mines for various industrial use cases.
TMC is a high-risk name, but it has trounced the market this year
It's a bit difficult to assess TMC's valuation after its massive 855% gain in 2025. It's certainly very risky to invest in any company that has no current revenue, requires significant upfront capital investment, and has an uncertain payoff down the road.
However, the opportunity for deep sea mining is quite large, as this type of mining hasn't been done before. A 2024 analysis by consulting firm Arthur D. Little estimated the addressable market of undersea metals could be as high as $20 trillion globally.
So TMC remains a "lottery ticket" type of investment today, and should be treated as such.
