Joby Aviation (JOBY 7.93%) stock has had a hot run in 2025, roughly doubling through market close Oct. 13.
The company, which is designing an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicle, has been riding on a combination of tailwinds, including an executive order from the White House to accelerate the deployment of eVTOLs.
As it inches toward full FAA certification, Joby is looking less and less speculative, though, to be sure, it has a long way to go to reach profitability. The stock has tumbled roughly 20% from recent highs. Is now the time to buy before Joby takes off?
Joby eVTOLs. Image source: Joby Aviation.
What's been proven versus what's been priced in
Joby is a forerunner in the eVTOL industry. Indeed, its first conforming craft is now in final assembly for FAA flight testing, which is a huge step toward certification that could finally turn all the hype into commercialization.
Right now, Joby is still in its development stage. It doesn't have regulatory approval to put paying passengers in the air, nor does it have the aircraft on hand to do so. It's not expected to generate significant revenue until at least next year.
At the same time, its total addressable market could be worth the effort. Morgan Stanley, for instance, estimates that urban air mobility could hit $9 trillion by 2050.
As cities become more congested, Joby's selling point could also become more persuasive.
But before the question of whether Joby's aircraft can change urban transportation is the question of whether it can stay in business long enough for its thesis to play out.
At the end of June, the company had about $991 million in cash and an annual burn rate of about $500 million. On Oct. 7, it raised about $514 million through a stock sale, which gave it a cash injection but also diluted shareholders.
At today's valuation, optimism runs high. Aggressive investors may feel comfortable with the risk, but those with a conservative approach may want to wait for more concrete results.
