Nvidia (NVDA 0.25%) currently stands as the lone member of the $4 trillion club. The huge chipmaker could be joined in the near future by Microsoft (MSFT 0.81%), which is knocking at the door with its market cap of $3.8 trillion.
However, there's another supercharged growth stock that could be headed to $4 trillion over the next 12 to 18 months, according to one Wall Street analyst.
Google it?
A quick Google search should reveal the most likely next member of the $4 trillion club after Nvidia and (presumably) Microsoft. Apple's (AAPL 4.20%) market cap of nearly $3.7 trillion makes it the third-largest company. However, the iPhone maker's performance this year couldn't even charitably be described as supercharged. But the stock with the fourth-highest market cap could.
Google parent Alphabet's (GOOG 1.14%) (GOOGL 1.08%) market cap of a little over $3 trillion puts it within striking distance of $4 trillion. Its stock has been sizzling hot in 2025, skyrocketing more than 30% year to date.
Scotiabank (BNS 0.41%) analyst Nat Schindler recently raised his firm's 12-month price target on Alphabet to $310. That's more than 23% above the current share price, enough to propel Alphabet's valuation to around $3.75 trillion. From that point, the stock would need a gain of less than 7% to reach $4 trillion. Based on Schindler's bullish view of Alphabet, this goal seems to be attainable within the next 18 months.
Schindler likes the renewed strength in Google's advertising revenue. YouTube is a key part of this success, with its "Shorts" short-form videos delivering monetization similar to other YouTube videos in some areas. Scotiabank also thinks that Alphabet's newest version of its Ironwood tensor processing units (TPUs) could compete better with Nvidia's GPUs.
Image source: Getty Images.
Gemini rising
Not everyone on Wall Street is as bullish about Alphabet as Schindler. Several analysts have "buy" or better ratings for the stock but set price targets that reflect little to no growth over the next 12 months. However, I believe Schindler's take is justified. And I suspect that Alphabet could join the $4 trillion club within the next 18 months.
Google Cloud is already the fastest-growing major cloud services provider. Revenue for the unit soared 32% year over year in the second quarter of 2025 to $13.6 billion. Unsurprisingly, generative AI was a key growth driver.
I expect Google Cloud's momentum will continue. One key reason behind my confidence is that Google's Gemini 3.0 large language model (LLM) will launch soon, according to Alphabet and Google CEO Sundar Pichai. Some industry observers speculate that Gemini 3.0's release is imminent.
Gemini 2.5 Pro already topped 26 rivals, including OpenAI's GPT-5 and xAI's Grok, in a blind ranking of AI tools for software coding, emotional reasoning, logic, and math problems. Gemini 3.0 reportedly will take multi-step reasoning capabilities to a new level of sophistication.
The better Gemini is, the more appealing Google Cloud will be to AI developers. And the stronger Google Cloud's growth is, the faster Alphabet could reach a $4 trillion market cap.
What could derail Alphabet's path to $4 trillion
Is Alphabet a slam dunk to join the $4 trillion club over the next 12 to 18 months? No. Several obstacles could derail the company's path to $4 trillion.
Advertising is still Alphabet's biggest revenue source. If the economy weakens, advertisers could tighten their spending and dampen Alphabet's growth. This is a real possibility, especially with the full brunt of the Trump administration's tariffs yet to be felt by consumers.
Even if the economy chugs along, a slowdown in AI infrastructure spending could hurt Alphabet's Google Cloud business. Also, should Gemini 3.0's capabilities disappoint developers, they might turn to other cloud providers.
However, I'm confident that Alphabet's market cap will top $4 trillion sooner or later. The long-term trends working in the company's favor are simply too compelling to think otherwise.
