Nvidia (NVDA +1.63%) has created incredible profits for its shareholders over the past few years by providing the foundations for the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution. It has transformed over the course of a few decades from a relatively obscure chip company focused on making graphics processing units (GPUs) to improve the performance of video games into the leading maker of high-end parallel processors that make AI applications possible, and lately, it has been unveiling new products and technology at a blistering pace.
Nvidia stock has gained nearly 24,000% over the past 10 years, demonstrating the power of the buy-and-hold investing model. But where will it be in another 10 years?
Image source: Nvidia.
Leading AI forward
The company has become a household name thanks to its position in the AI industry, and its results and size demonstrate how important it is. Today, it's the world's most valuable company.
Naturally, as it gets bigger, its growth -- on a percentage basis -- is slowing down. But it's still impressive: Sales were up 56% year over year in its fiscal 2026 second quarter (which ended July 27). It has deals with all of the major hyperscalers, which rely heavily on its chips for their data centers. All of these companies, including Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms, have said they plan to increase their AI infrastructure spending in 2026, and that means more sales for Nvidia.
While Nvidia is still in the process of rolling out its latest architecture, Blackwell Ultra, it's already preparing for the launch of its next GPU line, Vera Rubin, in 2026.
It has expanded into several other important products that are the next level in generative AI development, specifically its vertically integrated products, like GPU-embedded workstations, that simplify complex workflows. Its Dynamo product optimizes large-scale inference platforms, and its CUDA software platform helps accelerate app development.
It's also announcing new partnerships with large clients like Oracle and Uber Technologies at a rapid clip, cementing its central role in AI and tech development. As it inks more deals and grows its presence, it seals its competitive edge.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
Risks and competition
Let's be clear that trying to predict any situation a decade into the future is a mostly futile effort. Consider this more of an exercise to try to envision Nvidia's long-term opportunity. It's easy to paint an optimistic picture of the company's outlook for 2035, considering how well Nvidia is performing today, but no one can know until we get there. In fact, no one can accurately and reliably predict where stocks will be one year from now.
Nvidia does enjoy a wide lead in the data center GPU segment, but its competitors keep developing new products intended to grab some of its market share. Any number of things could happen over the next 10 years that could inhibit Nvidia's trajectory. Here are some of them:
- Jensen Huang could step down as CEO.
- A competitor could develop better technology.
- AI might not deliver the results at scale that clients want, and demand for it could stagnate -- or implode.
Even today, Huang recognizes the risk of competition from China. He was quoted in the Financial Times last week, warning that "China is going to win the AI race" -- an assertion that caused Nvidia's stock to drop. And while he later backpedaled on that statement somewhat, suggesting that what he meant was that the U.S. would need to act to prevent that outcome, it's clear that he's aware of the threats from foreign competitors.
A massive opportunity
Considering Nvidia's dominant position today, combined with its rate of innovation, I'd be confident in Nvidia's ability to sustain its momentum over the long term. Think about the top tech stocks today: Companies like Microsoft and Apple have been tech leaders for decades despite lots of innovation and competition. Nvidia definitely has that kind of lead, and it's likely to maintain its position.
However, I wouldn't expect Nvidia stock to deliver anywhere near the returns it has over the past 10 years. Nvidia's revenue has increased 2,500% over the past decade. That's not likely to happen again. It's just too big at this point. Larger companies like Amazon and Apple typically report revenue growth in the low-teen or high-single-digit percentages. Eventually, Nvidia's growth rates will moderate into that range, too.
Still, I envision Nvidia being in a great place in 10 years from now, bigger and better, with a stock price that's a lot higher.
