Lithium Americas (LAC +7.14%) stock, one of a handful of lithium mining start-ups featuring zero profit and zero revenue, gained 8.2% through 11:55 a.m. ET this morning on positive news out of China for the lithium industry.
As Reuters reports, Ganfeng Lithium Group chairman Li Liangbin is forecasting 30% to 40% growth in global lithium demand in 2026.
Image source: Getty Images.
Lithium glows green
Lithium carbonate contracts on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange surged 9% in response to Chairman Li's comments, closing at 95,200 yuan ($13,401.28) per metric ton Monday. This is the highest price per ton for this electric battery metal since June 2024.
But actually, the news for lithium miners could get even better. Following up on the Reuters report, Mining.com reports that Chairman Li thinks lithium per-ton prices could rise as high as 150,000 or even 200,000 yuan. Thus, a 30% to 40% rise in demand could translate into a surge in lithium prices ranging from 58% to 110%.
And assuming costs remain mostly fixed, the increase in profits for lithium stocks could be even greater.
NYSE: LAC
Key Data Points
Is Lithium Americas stock a buy?
Of course, for Lithium Americas to capitalize on the rising demand for, and rising price of, lithium, it must first start mining and selling some lithium. Luckily, according to analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence, Lithium Americas isn't too far away from doing just that.
While revenue-less today, S&P estimates Lithium Americas will begin generating revenue in 2027 -- less than two years from now. Still, earning profits from this production may not happen before 2030, and by the time 2030 rolls around, it's anybody's guess where lithium prices will be.
Until Lithium Americas both starts producing lithium, and begins booking profits from its sales, I consider the stock speculative at best.
