Standard Lithium (SLI +2.59%) stock, a lithium mining start-up with zero profit, and zero revenue, exploded 13.5% higher this morning on some positive news for the lithium industry out of China.
As Reuters reports today, Ganfeng Lithium Group chairman Li Liangbin is forecasting 30% to 40% growth in global lithium demand in 2026.
Image source: Getty Images.
Lithium glows green
Lithium carbonate contracts on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange surged 9% in response to the news, closing at 95,200 yuan ($13,401.28) per metric ton, Monday, the highest since seen for this electric battery metal since June 2024.
But the news for lithium miners could be even better than that. Following up on the Reuters report, Mining.com reports that Chairman Li is forecasting prices as high as 150,000 yuan or even 200,000 yuan a ton. If those are the correct numbers, then the 30% to 40% rise in demand could translate into anywhere from a 58% to 110% surge in lithium prices.
And assuming fixed costs remain mostly, well, fixed, then the increase in profits for lithium stocks could be even greater.
NYSEMKT: SLI
Key Data Points
Is Standard Lithium stock a buy?
Of course, in order for Standard Lithium to capitalize on all this good news, the company must first actually start mining and selling some lithium! And according to analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence, the first year in which Standard Lithium is expected to do this isn't until 2028.
It's anybody's guess where lithium prices will be by the time that happens. For this reason, I fear an investment in Standard Lithium stock today remains mere speculation -- not investing.
