No two ways about it, Oklo (OKLO 2.27%) investors have had a very bad month.
A developer of small modular nuclear reactors that can power artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, Oklo has benefited mightily from investor enthusiasm over AI stocks, anticipating there will be great demand for Oklo's brand of nuclear power to keep the AI revolution humming.
Oklo stock hit an all-time-high price of $166 in mid-October, up ninefold in 12 months' time. The past 30 days, however, have seen Oklo's share price slide 40%. This, despite the fact that Oklo announced in October it has been awarded a contract from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to build and operate three fuel-fabrication facilities as Advanced Nuclear Fuel Line Pilot Projects -- additional to its previous win of three DOE awards to build actual nuclear power plants.
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Oklo Q3 earnings point to the need for patience
Why have investors suddenly become disenchanted with Oklo? I suspect it has less to do with the company's success in winning DOE contracts and more to do with the fact that none of these contracts have yet resulted in Oklo generating any revenue for its business.
Reporting earnings for Q3 2025 last week, Oklo didn't even bother to add a revenue line to its income statement. There simply wasn't any need for it, nor will there be for years to come -- according to analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence, Oklo won't generate its first revenue before 2027, and it will be 2030 before the company has enough sales coming in to begin to offset its costs.
Speaking of which, Oklo's report showed the company spending $82.2 million so far this year on operating costs, of which $36.3 million were incurred in Q3 alone. That's 44% of total costs, in just 33% of the quarters that have passed so far this year -- meaning Oklo's costs are rising, even as its revenue sits stagnant at precisely zero dollars, zero cents.
NYSE: OKLO
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Can Oklo stock make you a millionaire?
Now, the situation isn't entirely without hope. Oklo's financial report also showed that the company is sitting on a cash and equivalents hoard worth $923 million. And the company's current cash burn rate is at least a little better than its reported net losses. Oklo's burned $55 million so far this year, implying its annualized burn rate is only about $73 million a year.
At that rate, Oklo can continue burning cash for more than a decade and still remain solvent. The problem is that Oklo may need to do precisely that. Analysts who follow the stock don't see Oklo turning profitable before 2030, nor free-cash-flow-positive until 2033.
Now, is it possible that Oklo will deliver on its promises, begin generating revenue two years from now, turn profitable five years from now, and begin generating enough cash on its own that it doesn't need to sell shares or borrow money to remain in business eight years from now? I suppose anything's possible.
Still, investors will need rock-solid faith in management and the patience of investing saints to wait the several years it will take to know any of this for certain. In the meantime, any investment in Oklo stock is going to more closely resemble speculation than investing.
