Stocks of companies involved with artificial intelligence (AI) continue to be hot this year as demand remains robust for AI-powered products and services. Companies are investing heavily into next-gen technologies in an effort to reduce their personnel and overhead expenses, and improve profitability.
One stock that generated impressive returns in 2025 is BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI +5.32%). Year to date, the data analytics company's shares are up by around 55%. And with a market cap of $3 billion, it's one of the smaller players in the growing AI world. But whether it can continue to soar higher will likely depend on whether its financial results look strong. The company plans to release its third-quarter numbers on Nov. 10 -- but should you invest in BigBear.ai before then?
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Will BigBear.ai's growth rebound in Q3?
The big question about BigBear.ai is how strong its Q3 growth rate will be. While the tech company hopes to be a big player in AI and benefit from the industry's growth, there has been a lot of choppiness in its growth recently. For example, in the second quarter, its revenue declined by 18%.
BBAI Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts.
The company experienced a considerable decline in sales in Q2, which it said was "due to lower volume on certain Army programs." That highlights just how dependent the business is on government spending. While there might be a bounce back in this upcoming quarter, the company's Q4 guidance may not be all that strong given that the government is currently in the midst of one of its longest shutdowns in history, and that alone could sink the stock.
Could another big post-earnings drop be around the corner?
When BigBear.ai reported its Q2 results in August, the stock nosedived from $7.09 the day the results came out to less than $6 the following day. While it has rebounded since that sell-off, it certainly demonstrated that this can be a fairly vulnerable stock to be holding on earnings day. Many times in the past few years, it declined notably in value after reporting its numbers.
The stock is a largely speculative buy, and its performance may depend heavily on the outlook for the business, and whether its growth prospects have improved. But given its unsteady top line and the fact that the company is nowhere near profitability (it has incurred $443.9 million in total net losses over the past four quarters), it may not be on course for another post-earnings dip.
NYSE: BBAI
Key Data Points
BigBear.ai's stock could be due for another big disappointment
Although retail investors have shown a lot of excitement about BigBear.ai's stock over the past year, its fundamentals don't suggest the stock is a good buy. Its revenue rose by just 2% last year and by 9% over a three-year period. This isn't a stock that screams growth. Instead, it's a risky and unprofitable business to invest in.
There are many companies involved with data analytics these days, and AI is making it easier for even more businesses to offer comparable services. With so much competition and massive losses, BigBear.ai faces an uphill battle to win over investors. While the stock may do well in the short term due to speculation, there's no compelling reason to invest in it today. Its upcoming quarterly numbers are likely to confirm that.
While its low market cap could make it an appealing option for growth investors thinking long term, there are much safer and better growth stocks to invest in than BigBear.ai right now.
