Oklo (OKLO 6.25%) has become the market's favorite nuclear start-up.
After a turbulent debut on the market, it now has a multibillion-dollar market valuation. That's despite reporting zero revenue. The stock has rallied on the idea that small, modular nuclear reactors will meet high demands in the power-hungry decades that lie ahead.
Image source: Oklo.
It's a compelling vision. And yet, it's also one that cannot happen unless Oklo can clear its tallest obstacle: the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).
That's why my prediction for Oklo for 2026 is pretty straightforward. Oklo will demonstrate its Aurora technology through a federal initiative, and I think this milestone will help its NRC application move into a more substantial stage of review.
What Oklo's current NRC work suggests about 2026
First, let's take a step back and recall what Oklo has done in 2025.
NYSE: OKLO
Key Data Points
Back in July, the company completed a phase 1 pre-application readiness assessment with the NRC. In a nutshell, this step basically confirmed that Oklo's microreactor design (Aurora) is ready for a deeper regulatory review.
That might seem insignificant. After all, passing a review to set oneself up for another review seems like a bureaucratic merry-go-around. But for investors who remember 2022, when the NRC rejected Oklo's license application for insufficient information, completion of this phase is a meaningful sign of progress.
Oklo also secured support this year through two Department of Energy (DOE) initiatives: the Reactor Pilot Program and the Fuel Line Pilot Program. Neither program guarantees a commercial license. But they do show federal interest in fast-tracking the NRC regulatory process.
The Reactor Pilot Program aims to turn on at least three test reactors by July 4, 2026, with Oklo's design being one of them. That would be a major validation of its technology if it happens.
Taken together, these developments suggest that 2026 will be the year that Oklo's application advances into a more substantive stage of review. Even a single completed phase would help us evaluate whether the company is making meaningful progress toward its goal of deploying its first Aurora in late 2027.
