Investors have finally realized SoFi's (SOFI 4.48%) value. It has almost doubled this year after having a single-digit stock price for a few years. Revenue has surged and profit margins have expanded, resulting in a win-win scenario as the digital bank gains momentum.
Can investors expect a repeat performance next year, or is it best to take a pass on the fintech stock? These are some predictions for SoFi stock that can shape its returns in 2026 and beyond.
Crypto transactions will accelerate SoFi Invest revenue
Image source: Getty Images.
SoFi Invest is a big part of the business that helped the fintech company increase its revenue by 38% year over year in the third quarter. This segment should experience rapid growth in 2026 amid SoFi's reentry into crypto.
NASDAQ: SOFI
Key Data Points
Crypto trading has been hot, with other fintech companies delivering strong gains in the area. For instance, Robinhood Markets delivered more than 300% year-over-year growth in Q3 crypto transaction revenue. Robinhood first rolled out crypto trading in 2018, so it shows that even with almost a decade of being in the market, Robinhood can still deliver superb crypto-transaction revenue growth.
Robinhood has 27.9 million investment accounts compared to SoFi's 12.6 million members. Robinhood's Q3 crypto revenue came to $268 million, so it is possible for SoFi to exceed $100 million in quarterly crypto revenue by the end of the year. SoFi's total revenue came to $961.6 million in Q3, so a $100 million boost would be meaningful. SoFi even announced a stablecoin this month, further committing to crypto as a revenue source.
SoFi will once again outperform the S&P 500
Crypto will be a major catalyst that increases SoFi Invest revenue and trickles to other parts of the business. The digital bank should attract crypto enthusiasts who eventually discover the fintech company's additional products.
Investors may not be fully pricing this scenario, especially if SoFi can achieve the types of revenue growth rates that we have seen with Robinhood. SoFi's credit cards, bank accounts, and loans present additional opportunities, especially as member sign-ups increase due to crypto trading.
The S&P 500 is up by 17% this year, which is much lower than SoFi's one-year return. The famed index fund leans heavily on big tech stocks that have large market caps. For instance, Nvidia is the largest member of the S&P 500 with a $4.4 trillion market cap. The artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker would have to reach an $8.8 trillion market cap to double. Meanwhile, SoFi only has to go from a $34.3 billion market cap to a $68.6 billion market cap to double.
This isn't to say that SoFi will double next year. However, it takes less capital and effort to generate significant price movement for companies with smaller market caps due to differences in liquidity and trading volume.
SoFi will drop by 20% at some point in 2026
Although SoFi has a good shot at outperforming the S&P 500 in 2026, it won't be drama free. You can't expect any growth stock to avoid volatility, but it is likely that SoFi drops by 20% at some point in its market rally.
SoFi may become overheated due to a strong earnings report, or some bad news may come out about the economy that causes people to sell. A 20% drop isn't random either. It's happened more than once since SoFi went public.
SoFi became a publicly traded company thanks to its purchase by a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in June 2021. After a brief run-up, SoFi lost more than 30% of its value in a matter of weeks starting from mid-June 2021. SoFi enjoyed another rally and lost more than 30% of its value between mid-November 2021 to the end of the year.
SoFi and other growth stocks had a miserable year in 2022. The fintech lost roughly 70% of its value. That type of loss hasn't happened again, but there were still instances in 2023, 2024, and 2025 when SoFi lost more than 20% of its value.
Investors shouldn't be scared if SoFi repeats this historical trend and exhibits a 20% decline within a matter of weeks. While those dips were scary at the time, SoFi managed to recover from each one. Investors should focus on the fundamentals and long-term tailwinds instead of zooming in on current stock price movements.
