The Metals Company (TMC +11.43%) was one of the market's best-performing stocks in 2025. Indeed, if you had invested $10,000 in TMC last year, your shares would be worth about $58,600 today, assuming you held on to them.
TMC Total Return Price data by YCharts
That's a huge gain, and not one you typically see from a mining stock. Add in TMC's pre-revenue status and its lack of a commercial license, and it's clear the hype behind this company has outrun its fundamentals.
Does TMC have a future, though? A monstrous gain like this predisposes investors to expect something momentous in the near term. And when you look at TMC's current situation, it's pretty obvious what that momentous "something" is.
NASDAQ: TMC
Key Data Points
TMC has a future if it can do this one thing
Everything about TMC boils down to a single outcome: gaining a commercial license for deep-sea mining. Right now, TMC does not have regulatory approval to send its robotic vacuums to harvest polymetallic nodules off the Pacific Ocean seafloor. Indeed, the company has been waiting for years for the International Seabed Authority (ISA) to finalize a rulebook under which it can gain such an approval.
The hope is that the ISA will create this rulebook and approve TMC's operations. That would allow the company to turn its multibillion-dollar treasure trove of nodules into sales before the company sinks under the weight of its own hefty operational costs.
Image source: The Metals Company.
On that note, TMC reported a $55.4 million operating loss in the third quarter of 2025, against a net loss of $184.5 million.
Some good news, however: TMC has been pursuing an alternative path to commercialization through the U.S.' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The Trump administration has been supportive of deep-sea mining, and it could mean TMC moves into a commercial phase faster than anything the ISA could guarantee.
Still, there are a lot of unknowns, and TMC's future isn't guaranteed. Investors should tread carefully and size positions in TMC with more caution than exuberance.
