Nvidia's (NVDA 1.21%) stock returns over the past year were healthy, but not phenomenal. Shares of the semiconductor giant only rose 27%, which can be considered an underperformance since the PHLX Semiconductor Sector index clocked bigger gains of 42.6% during this period.
The stock's 12-month median price target stands at $250, which means that analysts expect an increase of 33% in Nvidia stock in the coming year. But can Nvidia exceed the consensus estimate and deliver stronger gains?
Let's take a look at Nvidia's catalysts for 2026 and try to find out where the stock may be trading by the end of the year.
Image source: Nvidia.
Nvidia stock has the potential to almost double, according to a Wall Street analyst
Equity research firm Evercore ISI said recently that it sees Nvidia stock at $352 by the end of 2026. That would be an increase of around 86% from the current stock price. Analyst Mark Lipacis raised his price target on the stock from the earlier level of $261, stating that Nvidia's revenue growth could jump to 79% by the middle of 2026.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
For comparison, Nvidia reported a 62% year-over-year increase in revenue in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 (which ended on Oct. 26). Even better, the company anticipates its revenue growth to accelerate to just over 65% in the current quarter to $65 billion. This acceleration in Nvidia's growth can be attributed to the massive $500 billion order book the company has for 2025 and 2026, a nice chunk of which is yet to be fulfilled.
Nvidia is likely to receive more orders for its artificial intelligence (AI) chips in 2026, as management remarked on the company's November 2025 earnings conference call. Lipacis adds that Nvidia's focus on aggressively expanding its inventory to support the robust end-market demand is one of the reasons why its growth is likely to accelerate in the new year.
Moreover, Nvidia may see substantial revenue from China this year, following the Trump administration's announcement that it will be able to sell its advanced chips into that market. Reuters reports that Chinese tech firms have placed orders for over 2 million of Nvidia's H200 AI graphics processing units (GPUs) for 2026.
Reuters' sources add that Nvidia is likely to sell each H200 chip to Chinese customers for $27,000. The price point suggests that the company could generate $54 billion in revenue from China if it can indeed ship 2 million chips into that market. Of course, Nvidia will have to share a quarter of its revenue with the U.S. government, but even then, it could generate just over $40 billion in revenue from China.
Nvidia's Chinese revenue stream had stopped in April last year following restrictions imposed on the export of its chips into that market. Now that it seems poised to regain access to China, it could see a much stronger increase in its revenue and earnings this year.
Can the stock indeed double?
Analysts expect Nvidia's earnings growth to accelerate in fiscal 2027 (which will begin this month) to 61% from the ongoing fiscal year's projected jump of 57%. However, as the chart below shows, analysts haven't baked in the potential Chinese revenue that Nvidia could generate, as well as the additional revenue it may receive from new orders.
Data by YCharts.
So, Nvidia's revenue in the new fiscal year could easily exceed the 50% jump to $320 billion that analysts currently expect. As a result, its earnings growth is likely to be much stronger than the 61% bump in fiscal 2027. Let's assume Nvidia achieves a 75% jump in its earnings in the new fiscal year. In that case, its bottom line could hit $8.21 per share (up from the current fiscal year's estimated earnings of $4.69 per share).
Multiplying the projected earnings by the Nasdaq-100 index's earnings multiple of 33 (using the tech-heavy index as a proxy for tech stocks) points toward a stock price of $271. While that's lower than Evercore's price target, it still indicates that Nvidia stock could deliver 44% gains in the coming year.
Nvidia is trading at just 25 times forward earnings, making the stock a no-brainer buy right now since it is cheaper than the index's average earnings multiple. Moreover, the big increase in earnings that Nvidia is likely to deliver could pave the way for the AI stock to trade at a premium by the end of 2026, and that may be enough for Nvidia to reach the $352 price target discussed above.
