The Motley Fool's Bill Barker and Matt Argersinger take the stage with Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner. From Bubble Wrap and sidewalk robots to semiconductors, ski resorts, biotech pipelines, and online commerce platforms, the matchups span the familiar and the delightfully unexpected, with plenty of raucous banter along the way.
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A full transcript is below.
This podcast was recorded on Dec. 24, 2025.
David Gardner: Price per share of a stock tells you almost nothing. It's one number, but how many shares exist? In math, you multiply two factors, price times shares outstanding. Without the second, you can't do meaningful math or understand much of the market. Fools with a capital F know that price times shares equals market capitalization, a company's actual price tag. To make that lesson stick, we invented a game. On August 9, 2017, the Market Cap Game Show was born. We've played it every quarter since and you're playing too against my guest stars, your spouse, your kids, your dog. Can you outscore my talented contestants? Well, it's that time again 10 new stocks, three guest stars, longtime Motley Fool advisors Bill Barker, Matt Argersinger, and you only on this week's Rule Breaker Investing.
Speaker 1: It's the Rule Breaker Investing podcast with Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner.
David Gardner: Welcome back to Rule Breaker Investing. This is the Market Cap Game Show played here for the 38th time now in December 2025. Joining us this week are Bill Barker and Matt Argersinger. Two longtime Motley Fool advisors, stock pickers, personalities. Is that a fair term, guys?
Matthew Argersinger: Makes sense to me.
Bill Barker: Hope so.
David Gardner: Sure. I would say, at this point, yeah. Two Motley Fool personalities known well by our Motley Fool members, readers, and fans over the last couple of decades. Bill and Matt will be competing for the final seat in our March Market Cap Madness final four, joining with returning world champion Emily Flippen, past world champion Andy Cross, and the upstart, the dark horse, Lauren Hurst. Emily, Andy, Lauren, and one of these two gentlemen. Of course, the third player to us the most important is you. That's right. You, our dear fellow Foolish listeners. Just a quick reminder to you as we play along, the market cap is a simple way to measure the value of stocks of public companies. You simply multiply today's share price by the number of shares outstanding, and that gives you the market cap. These days, market caps range from $4 trillion at the high end, companies like Nvidia and Apple right down to well, it can be quite a low number in some cases, and no spoilers, we might have one or two of those today. As my producer, Bart begins to crank up our signature market cap game show music, let me just remind especially new listeners, new players how this game works. I'll be mentioning a stock. Neither Bill nor Matt knows what stock is coming. I'll turn to one of them and ask that Fool to state a numerical range within which the market cap falls. His best estimate. The other contestant and you playing at home will simply say, I agree, meaning it's accurate, the stock's value falls inside that range or I disagree. I think it's outside that stated range. So you simply agree or disagree and if you get it right, give yourself a plus one. That's the Market Cap Game Show. We're focused on the real market caps of real stocks. Nobody knows the next stock that's coming a perfect score would be 10. Matt Argersinger helped initiate the Market Cap Game Show, having been there with me in 2017 as we debuted the show. He is the OG. Matt currently works on The Motley Fool's Dividend Investor, Ultimate Income, and Supernova Services. You can also catch him regularly on the Motley Fool Money podcast. He enjoys traveling, collecting vintage comic books, and most of all, spending time with his wife and 6-year-old son. Welcome back, Matt.
Matthew Argersinger: Thank you, David. Happy holidays.
David Gardner: Happy holidays to you, sir, and to all listening, let's proceed to stock number one. Matt, if you had to start a side hustle. This weekend, what would you sell? I feel like I may have just read it.
Matthew Argersinger: I just read it. I think if I had to, because I just know the business a little bit, and I have some experience in it, I'd probably start selling comic books online.
David Gardner: For the fun of it, Matt, what are some of your favorite or most valuable vintage comic books?
Matthew Argersinger: Well, I have a growing collection of if you're a DC comics fan, Adventure Comics, Action Comics from the World War two era is my bag nowadays. I've got a few valuable ones within that era.
David Gardner: That's awesome. Have you ever sold some?
Matthew Argersinger: I have. I have sold.
David Gardner: You are a trader. You're in and out.
Matthew Argersinger: A little bit, I would say I'm a very limited trader, more of a long term holder of comic books.
David Gardner: I think we can appreciate that.
Matthew Argersinger: Yeah.
David Gardner: Matt, if you did do this side household this very weekend, would you want to sell it on someone else's platform or on a site that's yours?
Matthew Argersinger: Probably on someone else's platform just because any site that I would build up probably wouldn't have enough of an audience to get a great value.
David Gardner: I think that makes a lot of sense, and that choice points us to Shopify. Ticker symbol SHOP. Shopify provides the software infrastructure that lets individuals and businesses set up and run their own online stores, handling payments, inventory, and logistics. I think it's a lot easier to do this with them than by yourself, these days. Sellers can own their storefront and customer relationship rather than relying on a marketplace. It is a Canadian company. I think a lot of us who follow this company, a lot of people listening right now owns some Shopify, I think. Founded by Tobi Lütke, a lifelong programmer and gamer who originally built the software simply to sell snowboards online. It has since grown into one of Canada's most valuable enterprises. Matt Argersinger, what is your stated market cap range for Shopify, ticker symbol SHOP?
Matthew Argersinger: David, I think I'm going to go with between 150-190 billion.
David Gardner: Alright, 150-90 billion. Bill Barker, turning to you, are you a Shopify customer? Have you used their services?
Bill Barker: I have not. Not that I'm aware of.
David Gardner: How about, like, the Shop Pay? Do you ever use Shopify to pay for things on other people's online stores?
Bill Barker: No, no.
David Gardner: Do you buy things online, Bill Barker. Are you familiar with E-commerce?
Matthew Argersinger: He's on eBay like me, probably.
Bill Barker: There's a lot of Amazon, a few other niche places.
Matthew Argersinger: It is particularly helpful this time of year, I will point out.
Bill Barker: Oh, yeah.
David Gardner: I think you know that. I know my wife is a regular Shopify buyer, so she knows it. Bill, Matt said 150-190 billion. Players at home. Bill Barker, do you want to agree or disagree?
Bill Barker: I am going to disagree with that. And if you agreed with Bill that you disagreed with Matt, give yourself a plus one. It is a little bit bigger. That was a generous range, Matt, and not a bad call, but Shopify it's worth pointing out these prices are all as of noon, Wednesday, December 17, a week before this airs. That's because we all have something else to do, I think, on December 24, probably. So we're recording a week ahead. The market cap, as we speak, is 216.79 billion, but who needs an extra decimal? So $217 billion outside Matt's stated range. I feel good about that. Not that I would have had a better range. I was disagreeing, but on the low end, right for the wrong reasons.
Matthew Argersinger: Yeah, in my head, I was thinking it was somewhere in the high 100s. That was for some reason in my head. But just short.
David Gardner: It was recommended first in Motley Fool Rule Breakers by Carl Teal. The date was February 24, 2016. The cost base is $2.10 a share. It has been a mega winner, not just for Rule Breakers, but for many other Motley Fool services, and many Motley Fool members. This is one of our most broadly held stocks. It has been a huge winner. How about Tobi Lütke, with the whole I'm trying to sell my snowboards online. Let's just start something.
Matthew Argersinger: I love it.
Bill Barker: That's similar to the eBay origins.
David Gardner: You're right.
Matthew Argersinger: Yeah. Even the Bezos story.
David Gardner: Yeah. Maybe we should act on those instincts more often. Matt, have you thought maybe this weekend it's time to start, finished comic book business?
Matthew Argersinger: I think I might have to get on that.
David Gardner: Why not?
Matthew Argersinger: Use Shopify.
David Gardner: Alright, I count it as Bill Barker one, Matt Argersinger zero. Let's move on to stock number two. Bill Barker has been with the Fool for 26 years in between stints as a trial lawyer and federal terrorist asset investigator. That's for real. But it's mostly known and Fooldom for inflicting sporadic episodes of apropos of nothing on unsuspecting podcast listeners during the days of market foolery. He plays a little tennis and other racket sports, roots for the Yankees, and by his own reckoning, sings and dresses about two standard deviations below the median. Back from helping to start up Motley Fool Asset Management, over a decade ago, Bill now writes again for the Fool, working on hidden gems and firecrackers. Bill, great to have you back. Among your many talents and exploits in this world, yes, you are a serious racket sport athlete. We've talked about that in the past. You're a past winner of the court tennis championships for your age group. Am I right?
Bill Barker: That is correct. It's a very small pond that I get to be a big fish in.
David Gardner: Yeah.
Bill Barker: It's still something I enjoy doing.
David Gardner: Fantastic, Bill. Let me tweak that question a little bit. Do you have another sport that you ever turn to? Maybe one that doesn't use a racket that maybe uses a completely different muscle set?
Bill Barker: I personally? No, no, no. It's all racket sports.
Matthew Argersinger: It's constant tennis.
Bill Barker: There are enough racket sports to keep me entertained. But I understand that others try some different sports.
David Gardner: Yes, there are other sports outside of racket sports. By the way, court tennis, which some people call real tennis. I don't know if they do so with attitude, but that was how the game was founded. Give us a little bit more on court tennis.
Bill Barker: Well, for several hundred years, it was the only game known as tennis and the origins are I don't know the 14th century French monastery, something like that. First racket sport, all racket sports are descended from it. Eventually, the game that most people think of as tennis was created and patented. It didn't even really evolve. It was a single individual who saw the need for a simpler game or saw the money that might be available from creating a simpler game. For, I don't know, 100 years or so, that game was known as lawn tennis. Then it was not always played on lawns, and eventually it just became known as tennis.
David Gardner: Thank you for a little bit of history. Have you ever skied?
Bill Barker: I have skied, not well.
David Gardner: That line of thinking brings us to Vail Resorts. I didn't really get my transition. I just figured, Bill, I thought you played some other sport. Like, you've skied some.
Bill Barker: I have skied some, but because of, as I pointed out, the fact that I don't ski well and don't know how to ski properly, and yet do not take those two things into consideration when I ski. I think, well, I can try the harder slopes. Why not? My friends are doing it.
David Gardner: Yeah. It can be dangerous.
Bill Barker: My friends who do ski.
David Gardner: You can get hurt, probably worse in skiing than in court tennis. Anyway, Vail Resorts is the stock we're talking about here. Ticker symbol MTN. Vail Resorts owns and operates destination ski resorts across North America, Europe, and Australia, making its money from lift tickets. Of course, season passes, lodging on mountain spending all tied to a highly seasonal but deeply habitual sport. The company's leaned into that seasonality through its epic pass, encouraging skiers and riders to commit upfront and then return again and again across its network of mountains. Bill Barker, what is your stated market cap range for Vail Resorts ticker symbol MTN?
Bill Barker: It's going to be a wide one.
Matthew Argersinger: He's staring me down. You can't see it, but he's staring me down. I'm trying to think, What's going to trip up Matt over here?
Bill Barker: Eight billion to 21 billion.
David Gardner: $8-21 billion. Matt, do you ski?
Matthew Argersinger: I ski. I love skiing.
David Gardner: You love skiing. In fact, I think I saw a picture of you on social media or maybe on Slack in Motley Fool headquarters. I think you're dressed up as a skier.
Matthew Argersinger: That's right. It's actually up on Park City, and I'm pointing to a sign that says dividend, which is one of the runs that you can do at Park City.
David Gardner: That is awesome. Park City owned by Vail Resorts. You know that. Seems like Matt might have an edge here. Down one, nothing. It would be awfully nice to make this point. Matt, Bill said $8-21 billion, if I remember it right. Do you want to agree with that or disagree with that range?
Matthew Argersinger: I'm going to disagree with that range. I think it's a lot bigger, Bill.
David Gardner: Players at home? What do you think? I'm going to give you 3 seconds. Three, two, one, say it. Alright, you said it. If you, along with Matt, also disagree, give yourself a plus one because sure enough, Bill, despite according himself a somewhat generous range, nevertheless missed it, Vail Resorts has not been a great stock in recent years. It's down to a market cap right now of $5.54 billion, 5.5 billion, which lower than Bill's rather generous range. Matt, your jaw dropped a little bit. Are you surprised to hear that?
Matthew Argersinger: I am surprised. I thought it was bigger, actually. I thought even though Bill had a high number on the high side, I actually thought it was bigger than that.
David Gardner: Yeah, this is a company that owns 42 mountain resorts, Vail, Whistler, Blackcomb, Park City you mentioned. It makes money, not just from Epic Pass, even or Lift tick. It's lodging, dining, retail. Matt, I see your dividend investors service. If I see this right, I think you have had Vail Resorts on the scorecard and maybe put it on hold last year. Do you know, is it still sitting there on hold or not?
Matthew Argersinger: It's not on hold. It's a quirk with our site that looks like it's still on hold. It is back to an active recommendation, but we did put it on hold for a few reasons about a year and a half ago.
David Gardner: Clearly, you know this company probably better than most. I actually initially recommended this for Motley Fool Stock Advisor at 47 in 2013. It's now over 160. You'd think I'd be pretty happy with more than a triple, but the market has actually more than quadrupled. This has been an underperformer. Now looked back 12 years later. I trust it will return to days of out performance Matt, who knows that's not the purpose of the market cap game show. We're just trying to nail the market caps, and you just did by disagreeing. Players at home, if you also disagreed, give yourself a plus one. I count Bill one, Matt one. Let's move on to stock number three. Matt, here's something that I have noticed. Some of the more important technology companies in the world are run by leaders that most consumers have never heard of. They seem perfectly happy that way. Not everybody is an egotistical king of capitalism trying to take over the world. What do you make of that?
Matthew Argersinger: Well, I mean, I think that's reality of how the market is. It doesn't always have to be the king of anything.
David Gardner: When you encounter a company that's been executing steadily for many years, without much noise or hype, and if you were to mention the company name, most people wouldn't be able to name the CEO. What are the first things that you would look to to understand more about that company or business beyond just who's sitting in the executive seat?
Matthew Argersinger: Well, I think, where it stands within its industry, if it's been doing what it's been doing for a long time and successful, it probably has a significant market share, and it probably doesn't have a lot of competition chasing it down. Probably has high profit margins, those kind of things.
David Gardner: That brings us to Arista Networks. Ticker symbol ANET, Arista designs high performance networking equipment used inside large data centers, helps Cloud providers and enterprises move massive amounts of data quickly and reliably. Work that most end users, of course, never see, like its female CEO Jayshree Ullal, one of the longest tenured leaders in enterprise tech, and Arista, by the way, has been a long time Fool holding across multiple services by just quietly doing one thing extremely well. Matt Argersinger, what is your stated market cap range for Arista Networks, ticker symbol ANET?
Matthew Argersinger: David, I am going to go with a range of 65-90 billion.
David Gardner: Sixty five billion to 90 billion. Bill, is this a stock that you maybe own or have ever looked at?
Bill Barker: It's not a stock I've owned. It's something that was on a watch list at one time for my days in the asset management, but it was never really something that ended up getting bought at least while I was there. Don't know what they're buying these days.
David Gardner: You mean you don't know all stocks and research all stocks? We don't do that at the Motley Fool? I thought everybody would know something about anything.
Bill Barker: Now with AI, you can do it. But back in our day, it was harder.
David Gardner: You actually had to research things.
Bill Barker: You actually had to read things. You had to mail away.
David Gardner: If we're really going to go to the back in our day line here, you had to find the number for investor relations, call them, probably not toll free to have them send you their annual report paper.
Bill Barker: That's true. You had to make a long distance phone call, which cost more. There are people out there who won't understand what we're talking about.
David Gardner: Till these days.
Bill Barker: It's a long distance phone call.
David Gardner: Bill, Matt has said 65 billion to 90 billion. Players at home? Bill Barker, do you want to agree or disagree with Matt's 65 billion to $90 billion range?
Bill Barker: I'm going to disagree.
David Gardner: In that case, Bill Barker, give yourself a plus one. That was the right call because JSitel and Arista Networks, Matt, just quietly cranking and growing well beyond your own expectations, 65-90, this company is now up to $154.74 billion for its market cap as of Wednesday, December 17th, smoking.
Matthew Argersinger: I tried to say my range was such confidence that I thought I could trip up, Bill, but I didn't really know any.
Bill Barker: At least this time for the first time, I was right for the right reason. I did think that was low.
David Gardner: Most consumers, I would say, probably have never heard of Arista. If you survey the proverbial man on the street, I'm thinking maybe they know Cloud services. They stream some video. They probably rely on AI workloads increasingly, but there's a good chance even though their data has traveled through Arista built networks, they would really not know the name Arista. Am I right?
Bill Barker: Am I wrong in thinking that, again, back in our day, and I'm looking more at David than that, this was a record label name for some reasonably well-known.
David Gardner: I think that's probably right.
Bill Barker: That feels good.
David Gardner: You guys have your Internet turned off, so you can't look that up right now. But yes, we have a lot of knowledgeable listeners who who right now are nodding their heads going. Bill called it, even though neither David nor Bill can really give any of the artists. Unless, Bill, you're about to throw Lionel Ritchie.
Bill Barker: I don't know. In our era, I think I'm going to go with Captain and Toneil to really date myself.
David Gardner: This stock, by the way, first picked for the Motley Fool In Rule Breakers by David Kretzman of Gardner Kretzman Continuum Fame.
Bill Barker: Yes.
David Gardner: The date was November 25, 2014. Stock was at $4.61, so 11 years later, thank you, David Kretzman. This stock is a 27-bagger for Motley Fool Rule Breaker members. I would just say Awesome. Speaking of awesome, the company has been led since 2008 by CEO Jayshree Ullal, one of the longest tenured CEOs, as I mentioned, in Enterprise Tech, really one of the few women thus far to found and scale a major networking company. A phenomenal story, ticker symbol, ANET, and I'm counting it as Bill two Matt one. Let's move on to stock Number 4. Bill, think about the things that you own that actually get better over time. Can you name one?
Bill Barker: Things that I own that get better over time.
David Gardner: That actually get better.
Matthew Argersinger: Got that amazing Brandy collection that you always tell me about.
Bill Barker: That theoretically would be one if I actually did have an amazing Brandy collection. I have a few fairly cheap bottles of wine that I suspect don't get better over time, but there's hope, given how little I spent on them.
David Gardner: Matt, would you say your vintage comic books get better over time, or they just get older?
Matthew Argersinger: Some can get more valuable over time, but if you don't take care of them, they can get old and brittle, and the content never changes. The content never change. The art. The funny lines. The stories. They're always don't change.
Bill Barker: There are some things I've planted in the backyard that get better over time.
Matthew Argersinger: There you go.
David Gardner: That counts.
Bill Barker: Is that where we're going? I don't suspect. I don't know where we're going here yet.
David Gardner: What about apps on our phones? You download the app off the App Store, and then, my God, it just got patched. Three weeks later, it got patched. Again, they added content. Would you say that technology, Bill Barker, technology can get better. You buy the stuff, but it gets better. AI might be getting better. It's supposed to with every passing day.
Bill Barker: I think it is getting better. I don't own it, though. I would like to own AI. That would be fun. Then I would have everything one of these days.
David Gardner: How about cars? Do you have a car that occasionally gets updates?
Bill Barker: They do not get better over time. My experience with my car is I've never owned one that got better over time.
David Gardner: Some people who bought a Tesla at any point in the last 10 years probably initially bought something that was designed and manufactured in a certain way, but then, through software updates, it unlocked or did something new, and it was just still your car. I'm guessing you don't own a Tesla, Bill?
Bill Barker: I do not know. Are you offering one? Because I'm willing to accept one and experience it getting back.
David Gardner: I believe that if some of our listeners come together in a kumbaya moment after this, if you were to win, there's a chance there might be one of those crowdfunding pages that might start, and Bill Barker ends up with a tale.
Bill Barker: I thought your listeners were smarter than to do something like that, but I'll take your word, Bill Tesla.
David Gardner: Come on, everyone. While Tesla, the company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, but also energy products, perhaps one day robots. It's always going to be a controversial company because I won't say what the market cap is. I'm going to let Bill do that, but it's always traded at a real premium, and some people say, This things just a car company. What's going on here? Bill Barker, what is your stated market cap range for Tesla, ticker symbol TSLA?
Bill Barker: It's been moving up in the last couple of days, so I'm going to say 1.1-1.4 trillion.
David Gardner: $1.1 trillion to $1.4 trillion. Matt, have you ever ridden in a Tesla?
Matthew Argersinger: I've written in a Tesla. I've driven a Tesla. I actually own we bought a Ford Mach-E Mustang, which is the Ford electric SUV. The Tesla, software upgrades have made it a little bit better.
David Gardner: It's funny because it would have sounded bizarre 30 years ago, but when you really just think about downloading an app on your phone and how a lot of apps, if they maintain do get better. That's just been increasingly true of more and more cars these days. Bill said 1.1 trillion to $1.4 trillion. Matt, players at Home, do you want to agree or disagree?
Matthew Argersinger: I am going to agree with Bill. I think he gave just enough of range where I think it's inside there.
David Gardner: If you also agreed with Bill with Matt, you don't get a point. Because, unfortunately, while Bill made a good call, they whispered askance, he said something along lines of it's been going up the last few days. As it turns out, it has, at least the week before Christmas, as we record, and it's now up to 1.58. Three trillion dollars, but who's counting, which is very close. In some ways, it sounds very close. In other ways, you missed that by over $100 billion, Bill and Matt.
Bill Barker: I think if you go back like day before yesterday or something like that.
Matthew Argersinger: Come on guys.
Bill Barker: I'm very happy to be wrong here.
Matthew Argersinger: I was going to be at the high end of your range, but I thought you had it.
David Gardner: It's volatile, and it's had quite a volatile 2025. And obviously, CEO Elon Musk is often in the headlines, and some people really don't like him these days, and some people may think he's the next coming, and he wants to die on Mars. There's a lot that we could say about Elon Musk. I will say that he came to FoolHQ. I was checking it, guys, September 29, 2011. Were you there that day?
Matthew Argersinger: I will never forget it.
David Gardner: He came to FoolHQ and he just gave a stump speech. He was interviewed by Bill Mann, our colleague, and I was just sitting there going. He just said, "His company, Tesla emergent. The model *** hadn't shown up yet." He was saying, we're the third most shorted stock on the NASDAQ. At that point, the contrarian, the capital Fool M was like, I think I'm going to make that my next stock pick because the guy helped found PayPal. He's pretty bright. He's got a good vision for the future, and he just told me they're heavily shorted. I'm very happy that it came to Motley Fool Rule Breakers, and 218 times later, it's been a fantastic investment for a lot of people, and there are still a lot of doubters, and I understand it. I think a lot of Tesla's valuation is premised on what will come next, not what is. Whether that works out or not, we can't really know, so it's a fascinating company. It's also a pretty valuable company these days. This company's now worth $1.5 trillion. Phenomenal story.
Matthew Argersinger: Amazing.
Bill Barker: I would say that in comparison to other car manufacturers, 90, 95, 98% of the value is from things beyond cars priced into the stock at the moment.
David Gardner: Tesla does design its own batteries, by the way, writes much of its own software, builds its own factories, even operates its own charging network, which is an unusually integrated approach in the auto industry. Let's move on to stock Number 5. Now, Matt, I don't want to put any pressure any more than you're already feeling on you, but you're down three to one.
Matthew Argersinger: I've got some ground to make up.
David Gardner: We're in an inflection point right now. You probably need this one.
Matthew Argersinger: I do.
David Gardner: Let's go to stock Number 5. Matt, you've owned and managed rental properties over the years. What surprised you most about being a landlord once you were actually in it?
Matthew Argersinger: That, no matter what you do, you can't account for all contingencies. Something always unexpected is going to happen.
David Gardner: Can you tell a brief story, anecdote, throw something our way?
Matthew Argersinger: There's the midnight HVAC goes out, the tenant gets locked out, all those things that just pile on and will drive you crazy, and then you try to build systems and processes to guard against. But they're never good enough. Something always happens.
David Gardner: Am I right that you're no longer doing that as much? Are you out of that game or are you still in it?
Matthew Argersinger: One remaining rental property in DC. We're probably going to be selling that this year, hopefully, but that's almost out of the game. I used to have a lot more.
David Gardner: Matt, so. Based on your experience, let me ask this. Where do you think most value in housing really gets created? Is it in owning and operating existing homes or in building new ones the right way from the start?
Matthew Argersinger: I'm going to go with the former owning and operating existing assets only because of the era we're in, where it is so much more expensive to build and so much more capital-intensive, whereas an existing property, as long as it's got good bones and relatively newer systems, it probably has less money to operate that and make it profitable than it is to build new.
David Gardner: I'm going to ask you for a tip. We have many a landlord listening right now. I think so, so I'm going to ask you for a tip, based on your experience for aspiring or present day landlords. But this conversation is taking us to Dream Finders Homes. Ticker symbol DFH Dream Finders is a homebuilder focused primarily on entry level and first move up buyers, operating with an asset light model that emphasizes lot options rather than heavy land ownership, which helps keep capital needs lower and returns more flexible across the housing cycle. National Builder of the Year 2025. It says on its website homepage, which I just checked a couple of days ago. Matthew Argersinger, I believe it may even be an active rec in dividend investor. Am I right?
Matthew Argersinger: It is, so if I don't get this.
David Gardner: But the thing is, here's where we get into the Princess Bride mental game of the Market Cap Game Show, because Bill now knows that this is an act of recommendation on your scorecard as do our listeners at home. Sometimes you might not want to be fully honest with your response, otherwise, too predictable. Am I right?
Matthew Argersinger: I think you're right there. I need a point.
David Gardner: Then, Matthew Argersinger, what is your stated market cap range for Dream Finders Homes? Ticker symbol DFH.
Matthew Argersinger: David, I'm going to go 750 million to 1.5 billion.
David Gardner: Seven fifty million to $1.5 billion. This is a small to micro-cap company, Bill Barker, according to Matt. Have you ever come across Dream Finders Homes, Bill?
Bill Barker: I have, yes, not as much as Matt, so he does have the advantage over me on this one.
David Gardner: Did you come across it from a stock research standpoint, or are you just a dreamer?
Bill Barker: It's from a stock research standpoint, but more looking over the lists of stocks that I might research more, rather than the list of stocks I actually did research on.
David Gardner: The company, by the way, has grown largely across the Southeast and Texas quietly scaling by staying disciplined about where and how it builds. I don't mean to be swaying listeners or bill at all with that. I just want to give a little bit more info. Bill Barker, listeners at Home, do you want to agree or disagree with Matt's stated range, 750 million to $1.5 billion?
Bill Barker: I'm going to disagree with it.
David Gardner: Bill just disagreed. Listeners at Home. What about you? Bill was right to disagree.
Bill Barker: It's a little higher?
David Gardner: Just a little higher. $1.7 billion. For our own accounting, it's now Bill four, Matt one. Again, Matt, chin up. You know this company pretty well. You were awfully close on the market cap range, but just not quite enough.
Bill Barker: Not quite enough.
David Gardner: How closely do you follow as fellow advisors, Motley Fool over the years, we know some of our stocks better than others. Is this one that you really know well, Matt?
Matthew Argersinger: I don't know as well as some of the analysts who have worked on Diwan Investor. By the way, what's interesting is Dream Finders Homes doesn't actually pay a dividend, even though it's on the Diwan Investor scorecard because it came over from our old real estate winners service, which was merged into Dividend Investor a couple of years ago. We carried over because we like the company and we like the management team, and we thought, at some point, a lot of homebuilders, probably will pay a dividend, so we kept it on the scorecard.
David Gardner: Dream Finders Homes was founded in 2008 by Patrick Zalupski, who still runs the business today, so we've got a founder-led company that scaled through multiple housing cycles. That means, by the way, Dream Finders Homes was founded during the global financial crisis. That couldn't have been easy.
Matthew Argersinger: Probably not. But it's worked out really well.
David Gardner: It has grown steadily coming out the other side. The company concentrates on high growth sunbelt markets like Florida, Texas, the Carolinas, Tennessee. It seems like that's where people are moving these days, strong population growth. The company is $1.7 billion today, ticker symbol DFH. Some people actually listen to this show for stock picks, and this might be one of them. Let's go ahead and push it forward to half time. Now, I mention we have a new form of halftime entertainment. We've done many forms of halftime entertainment, Market Cap Game Show over 38 quarters. But recently we've settled on tell a joke. I'm going to turn first to Bill cause Bill, you're leading, and I'm going to ask you for our listeners benefit, and maybe Matt's and mine, too, would you please tell a joke halftime.
Bill Barker: Sure, and I will confess that I don't carry a backlog of jokes on hand. I try to come up with them in the moment.
David Gardner: Beautiful.
Bill Barker: You get what you pay for there. But so I went to AI, and I just said, what are the five best jokes?
David Gardner: Sure.
Bill Barker: This is Gemini.
David Gardner: Is this one of them?
Bill Barker: I won't inflict all of them on you. Actually, this may have been from Round 2, where those were good, but they're not going to translate quickly enough. But I'm going to tell you a standard joke, courtesy of AI. I don't know actually, whether it made this joke up or just came up with the old stuff, but it amused me. A monk, joins a monastery and takes a vow of silence. The vow specifies that he can only speak two words every 10 years. After the first 10 years, he goes to the head, Abbott, and he says, bed hard, Abbott nods and sends him back to his cell. Ten years later, the monk returns and says, food cold. The Abbott nods and sends him back. Another 10 years pass. The monk returns and says, I quit. The Abbott looks at him and says, I'm not surprised. You've done nothing but complain since you got here.
David Gardner: That definitely works for me.
Bill Barker: That's AI, getting I don't know, maybe I actually, since I was asking it for great jokes, I think when I asked it to come up with its own jokes, it didn't do as well.
David Gardner: I will just say, when I imagine that the Market Cap Game Show halftime should have jokes told, you outperform my personal expectations as to what we would produce. Thank you, Bill Barker.
Bill Barker: Again, I can take no credit. I want to be very upfront.
David Gardner: I think you can take a little bit of credit because you prompted in such a way. Like, part of our future as humanity is prompting, and getting good at prompting and better at prompting, you have agency. You have a role to play. You did play a role, Bill Barker.
Bill Barker: That is true. I feel like I am at least a BB plus at prompting. I've gotten there.
David Gardner: Allow me to underperform this.
Matthew Argersinger: Matt, a joke, please. David, have you heard the joke about the roof?
David Gardner: I have not.
Matthew Argersinger: It's OK. It's over your head.
David Gardner: There it is.
Matthew Argersinger: That's a terrible dad joke, and the reason I love telling it is because my son, when he was three, he heard that joke, and he told his grandparents, and he somehow just nailed it as three-year-old and the comedic timing was perfect.
David Gardner: My God. That's a shocker from a 3-year-old.
Matthew Argersinger: Grandparents were belly laughing with it, and so ever since it's been my favorite show.
David Gardner: Thank you.
Matthew Argersinger: He tries to tell it all the time when you meet someone new.
As we now move into the second half of the game, Matt, I had said to listeners, I was promising a tip that you would provide landlords to be and present landlords. Throw some out.
Matthew Argersinger: Sure, I would say you cannot do enough due diligence on your tenant. Get to know your prospective tenant I should say, as best you can, whether that's doing the credit score or even just having a nice conversation, getting to know them why they want to move into your house, why they're coming to this neighborhood, all those things. The more you know, the better experience you're probably going to.
Bill Barker: Keep going on this. If I'm not a landlord and hope to never be one, but what would the three aspects of what you have learned you must do before having a tenant?
Matthew Argersinger: Well, I would say, then, do they have a good job prospects? Are they friendly? That sounds just interesting. I think the friendlier the person is, the less likely they're going to potentially do damage or not care about your property while they're living there. Then there's things you can do, like Zillow has a great application process that you can have tenants go through that gives you interesting information, credit score, job history, recommendations from previous landlords, all that stuff. I just think the more information you have, the better.
David Gardner: The score as we enter the second half is Bill four, Matt one. Turning now back to you, Bill Barker. Bill, you spent a lot of time reading company websites, am I right?
Bill Barker: Too much time.
David Gardner: How much weight do you put on the words the companies use to describe themselves?
Bill Barker: I'm cynical, so I would say it's 7/twenty.
David Gardner: 7 out of twenty.
Bill Barker: Yeah.
David Gardner: When a company tells you, and I quote; technology is our how, and people are our why. What goes through your mind as an investor?
Bill Barker: They probably aren't as zen as they think they are [LAUGHTER]
David Gardner: I'm wondering if you recognize that line from any time in your past, Bill Barker.
Bill Barker: Was this from the last show that we did together? [LAUGHTER]
Matthew Argersinger: It sounds really familiar.
David Gardner: I randomize what shows up every Market Cap game show. Amazingly, this small-cap spoiler company has now reappeared with Bill Barker here in front of me, and we were making jokes about this a year or so ago, because this company's tag line is technology is our how, and people are our why. I was laughing, because to me, that's a little too generic. The reason it got even funnier was that Bill himself was writing it up as a stock pick for Motley Fool members and couldn't comment on that in the Market Cap Game Show in respect of our members. We actually had to not even air that part of the show, and back comes and Endava. Ticker symbol, D-A-V-A. Bill. It's back, so totally randomly, once again, and it's just perfect. Now, and Dava is a technology consulting and services company that helps large enterprises design, build, and modernize software, often working behind the scenes on complex digital transformation projects rather than selling a product that you can point to the stock while I'm about to turn back to Bill, except [NOISE] it's throwdown time.
Pencils out, fools. Bill and Matt are now going to write down their best market cap range for Endava, ticker symbol D-A-V-A. Once they share their ranges, players at home, you're just going to pick the contestant that you think made the better guess. You simply say Bill or Matt. If you're right, score a point. Now, if only one of them gets the market cap range right, of course, the correct guess is going to get that person and you the point, but what if both are right? Well, then the contestant with the tighter range takes the point. What if both of them are wrong? That obviously would never happen on this show. I don't ever remember that even happening once, ever. Anyway, supposing this ever should happen, whoever is closer to the actual market cap with one of their parameters gets the +1. We do this twice every show. Let's do it. Throw down stock Number 1 is stock Number 6, Endava Ticker symbol D-A-V-A. Bill, I'm turning to you first.
Bill Barker: I did happen once. It happened with me, where we were both wrong. [LAUGHTER] I'm glad you've specified what the tiebreaker was.
David Gardner: Yes. We did have a bit of a dispute. I remember. Archetap Game show Low Pass. You were disputing.
Bill Barker: One parameter was closer. I wanted to change the rule.
David Gardner: I say game show, we're all about ratings, and our ratings were getting killed for about 30 seconds there. As we had a little bit of dispute. Yes, if both of you are wrong, whoever has their parameter that's closest to the actual market cap will get the point. Bill, what is your range?
Bill Barker: I'm going $300 million-$600 million.
David Gardner: Three hundred million to $600 million. Matt, what did you write down?
Matthew Argersinger: I wrote down $600 million-$900 million.
Bill Barker: It has been on a tear lower.
Matthew Argersinger: I feel like I knew that. I didn't think it had gotten this far.
Bill Barker: I don't know if it has.
David Gardner: Well, I know the answer, and we're all about to hear the answer. Players at home, do you want to go with Bill, who said $300 million-$600 million or Matt, who said $600 million- $900 million. Say it. You just did. If you said, Bill, give yourself a +1. Now, Bill is holding up his arms in victory, but I will also say, unfortunately, this has not been a great pick for Motley Fool members, so in a lot of ways, we're all a little sheepish on this.
Bill Barker: Yes I'd like to point the finger anywhere but at myself and find it impossible to do so. I've never raised my arms in victory over something that has gone as badly as this has.
David Gardner: Do you want to share a little bit more there Bill?
Bill Barker: I want to move on. I don't want to think about this. It's some vague sense, positive reward that there has been from suffering through this.
David Gardner: At least you got a little redemption. I will say that and I regret to say this, as well. It's not just Bill. A number of Motley Fool services have taken a shine to this one. I see over 20 picks of this stock including some humdinger prices like November 2021, it was literally at 166. Today, the stock is around six. This has been an incredibly, unfortunately bad pick. Now, I am the king of bad picks at The Motley Fool, so nobody can pick more bad stocks than I did over my years at the Motley Fool. I don't fear loss in a society where I feel like people too much fear loss and don't enough recognize that our great gains wipe out our losses. Bill, what is happening at Endava?
Bill Barker: It keeps saying that this backlog that it sees is going to be the commitment of new contracts is blaming its customers for being too cautious, and the market is really tired of that story.
Matthew Argersinger: I can't imagine a winning business model is to blame your customer.
Bill Barker: I don't want to say it's blame, but it's like, we feel everything's going really well. Our customers just decided to take another quarter before they adopt a higher contract.
Matthew Argersinger: David you might have said it.
David Gardner: I never did. I neglected to say, Thank you, Matt, and players at Home. The market cap today is $300.75 million. It's just inside the very lowest end of Bill's range, $300 million-$600 million. It's basically a $300 million microcap at this point.
Bill Barker: Let's move on.
David Gardner: Yet, it is point number five for Bill Barker, who now has a commanding lead. In fact, Matt, we're at a point now where you're going to need to win out as we go forward to claim that final four seat in March. We are cheering you on though. I'm cheering you on. I love the underdog.
Matthew Argersinger: There's a chance.
Bill Barker: What are the slaughter rules in this game?
David Gardner: We always play out.
Matthew Argersinger: Doesn't tennis have a skunk rule?
Bill Barker: We're just going to lean into some unnecessary trash talk here, and everybody will now root for Matt. There's no question about that.
David Gardner: Four more stocks to talk through, and we're going to have fun with it. Matt, you're up next. Let's go to stock number 7, Matt. In medicine some companies try to be everything to everyone. Others focus deeply on a narrow set of problems. Do you favor either of those approaches over the other?
Matthew Argersinger: I think finding companies in any industry or sector that do one thing really well and focus on that thing generally works out better, at least in my experience.
David Gardner: What makes you confident that focused approach can still support a durable business?
Matthew Argersinger: I think if it's a big enough market, a big enough product, and it's the company's main bag, that's the key. You got a passionate management team and culture behind it. That's when it can all come together.
David Gardner: Very well said, Well, I don't know if you've ever looked at Incyte Corporation.
Matthew Argersinger: I have not.
David Gardner: Figure simple INCYTE apparently, they didn't get the patent or trademark or intellectual property around the proper way to spell the word insight with an s and a gh. They're going with I-N-C-Y-T-E. Incyte Corporation, a biopharmaceutical company focused primarily on oncology and inflammation. Its business is built around discovering, developing and commercializing prescription medicines with revenue driven by a mix of wholly owned drugs and partnered therapies that generate loyalties, but they do have one big dog drug that tends to dominate its results. This is not a company I know well at all. Looks to me, Matt, body language. It's not a company you know well at all.
Matthew Argersinger: Definitely not.
David Gardner: It's tag line, by the way, guys. Speaking of the words we choose to define ourselves, solve on. I think there might be a pun with oncology. I'm thinking. Solve on. Bill, before we go to Matt, have you ever looked at Incyte Corporation?
Bill Barker: I'm not 100% sure that you aren't just making this all up. [LAUGHTER]
David Gardner: We're all going in a little blind here on Incyte Corporation, but since I, as the Alex Trabak figure who's done all the homework, already know all the answers, even though I wouldn't have known this unprompted, unaided, I actually know the truth here, and we're all about to learn it. Matt I was going to say, what is your stated market cap range? You need this one, Matt. You need this one for Incyte Corporation ticker symbol I-N-C-Y.
Matthew Argersinger: Go ahead.
Bill Barker: I'm tempted to just tell you ahead of time that I'm going to disagree.
Matthew Argersinger: You're totally wrong.
David Gardner: You should not give Matt that information.
Bill Barker: I'm tempted, but I understand how I would be hurting myself by doing so.
Matthew Argersinger: I'm going to say $10 billion -$30 billion.
David Gardner: Ten billion dollars to $30 billion inside corporation. Bill, I don't know if you're a man of your word or not. You said you were tempted. You didn't put it forward. I'm going to turn now to players at home and Bill Barker. Matt said $10 billion-$30 billion. Do you want to agree or disagree with Matt's assertion?
Bill Barker: I think it's good range, and I'm going to disagree.
David Gardner: Well, in that case, it keeps the suspense going because +1 for Matt, it was within his rather generous range. Well done, Matt I was going to say here the market cap for Incyte Corporation $19.31 billion, guys, its largest product. I'm never good at pronouncing drug names that I've never looked at before, but I'm gonna go with Jakafi J-A-K-A- F-I.
Matthew Argersinger: Couldn't do better myself.
Bill Barker: Continue to believe he's making all up.
David Gardner: It's a drug used to treat rare blood cancers. For years, it's generated the majority of the company's revenue, making Incyte unusually dependent on a single medicine. Then again, it just reported Jakafi net product revenue last quarter, third quarter 2025 at $791 million, so we're talking about a pretty substantial business. By the way, our biotech breakthroughs service at the Motley Fool first recommended the stock in February of 2022. It was at 68 then. It's at 98 today. Not bad.
Matthew Argersinger: Considering how biotechnology companies have done over the last few years, that's not a bad result. It's been a tough time for the industry.
David Gardner: I've not done particularly well in any of my biotech companies in the last few years, so I get it. Now, what is it like to fly blind, hands off the driver's wheel. Your destiny is basically fully connected accounted for by what you're going to say, and yet you don't know what you're going to say.
Matthew Argersinger: That means there's really no pressure. I just can sit here and try to confuse Bill the rest of the game.
Bill Barker: I think there was a little hint that it had a drug that was doing well.
David Gardner: I was trying to help you guys a little.
Bill Barker: Before that moment, I was like, I don't know, zero to 2 billion?
David Gardner: Well, it keeps the game interesting. Let's move on to stock Number 8. Turning back to Bill Barker, Bill, think about how much of your life runs through your phone now compared to 10 or 15 years ago. What's the biggest change you've noticed, Bill Barker in Bill Barker? Over the last 10 years or so with his smartphone. I'm asking you to go third person in case you're not figuring that out.
Bill Barker: Got it.
David Gardner: As an athlete.
Bill Barker: Barker seems to spend too much time on his smartphone and is no longer willing to suffer boredom, even for microseconds.
David Gardner: I remember, and again, this is a little bit of back-in-the-day talk, but before there were smartphones. Obviously the iPhone, 2007, but I had my Palm one, two, three, 90s, but before that, I remember going to Best Buy. and there'd be like the line to buy your thing. It would be eight people long. You would just sit there and wait for people to check out one at a time with no entertainment. If there's somebody fun next to you in line, there's a conversation. We were standing in lines doing nothing for long periods of time for decades.
Bill Barker: Think about how productive we are now in those microseconds where we're staring at our phones and like did anybody send me an email in the last eight seconds? I better check again.
Matthew Argersinger: I will say there are some great articles and videos you can watch about trying to embrace boredom because that's tend we have more creative thoughts. I just remember standing in line or waiting for a train your bus. You go through mental exercises that you don't do these days because you're constantly just stimulating yourself with important things, usually.
David Gardner: It is true. I am noticing an increasing number of people writing books about things like digital exhaustion phrase that I think is a little bit oucurnt these days. We are constantly stemmed, maybe over stemmed, and we're doing it to ourselves. Back to this company, though, which I don't think we can really blame this company for that necessarily, but Qualcomm does design and license its semiconductor technology sitting at the core of modern wireless communication, including the standards that enable smartphones to connect to cellular networks. This is not a company that sells finished consumer products. Qualcomm's economic power comes from its intellectual property and its licensing model earning revenue when others build devices that rely on the standards that Qualcomm helped create. Now, this is a company I've never recommended or picked this stock, but this is a pretty big dog. Spoiler alert. I think we all know that. This is a company a lot of us have heard of. There was a San Diego Stadium, if you're a sports fan that had Qualcomm's name on it, and yet really the business is a little bit opaque. This is intellectual property lawyer Bill Barker.
Bill Barker: Yes, I don't want to let Matt know how much or how little I know about this great company that I have followed closely at times in the past.
David Gardner: Well, since you're mentioning it Bill Barker, what is your stated market cap range for Qualcomm, ticker symbol Q-C-O-M.
Bill Barker: One hundred and fifty billion dollars to $230 billion.
David Gardner: One hundred and fifty billion to $230 billion now. Matt, I probably don't need to remind you, but a single misstep here, and you will not advance to our final four. You're on a comeback here, Matt. You said initially, you're liking the range.
Matthew Argersinger: I am liking the range. It's where I was thinking about going, if I had to guess or if I had to create the range. With that said, I think I'm going to agree with Bill.
David Gardner: Players at home, Matt has agreed. What are you going to do because we're playing this game for you not ourselves. Are you going to agree with Bill $150 billion- $230 billion or disagree? You're locked in, and if you with Matt agreed with Bill, give yourself +1 because, sure enough, it was almost right at the median of Bill's range. $186.87 billion Qualcomm these days. That's pretty big.
Bill Barker: That was pure luck. I think I would have disagreed with my range because of how little information about its market cap I was bringing into the equation.
Matthew Argersinger: I was locked in on $200 billion as the market cap. If that was going to be in your range, I was going to agree with you, so it was.
David Gardner: Do you guys know where the name of the comedy came from? It's short for something. Not queludes.
Bill Barker: Quality communications?
David Gardner: You nailed it. You're on fire Bill. Well done.
Bill Barker: Do I get half a point it.
David Gardner: I'll give you another half point. I couldn't have done this myself to be clear. Qualcomm's played a foundational role in developing what the world calls CDMA wireless technology. Bill, give yourself another half point if you can give me the acronym CDMA stands for. Can you give me the four words underneath CDMA?
Bill Barker: Control digital methodological Associate.
David Gardner: I'm going to go with O for four. Nice try. But what's funny is, and I think a lot of us at the Motley Fool may do this. I've done this before. I say things like CDMA technology. But I'm the person likes to know what the acronym, what the words are. Yet, I couldn't have nailed this, and I've said CDMA a lot myself. It's Code-Division Multiple Access. There you are, people. That is responsible for huge value creation for Qualcomm shareholders. Over the decades, this has been a monster winner, Qualcomm Stadium. Ever been San Diego, California, guys?
Matthew Argersinger: Love San Diego, I've never been to the stadium.
Bill Barker: No, I haven't been to the stadium.
David Gardner: It was built in 1967. It was San Diego Stadium back then. Then they renamed it Jack Murphy Stadium. Baseball fans may remember that. From 1997-2017, it was Qualcomm Stadium. It was demolished in 2021 and yet, built on the same site. The new stadium is Snapdragon Stadium. I'm not keeping up. I needed to research this Snapdragon, by the way, one of Qualcomm's brands. Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, California.
Bill Barker: I was thinking it might be a brand of popcorn or something.
David Gardner: Probably is, too. Let's move on to Stock number 9. Matt, you are on your horse right now, Barker 5, Argersinger 3. How are you doing at home? Let's move on to Stock number 9. Matt, can you think of a company that has an iconic product, and yet the company has not taken that iconic product name as the company's brand name? Can you think of a company like that?
Matthew Argersinger: I can, and it's one that drives me crazy, but there's a company called Kenvue, which has a horrible name I think but has some of the most iconic product and brands that we use almost every day.
David Gardner: Like Tylenol.
Matthew Argersinger: Tylenol. Band Aid.
David Gardner: They should just call it Band Aid.
Matthew Argersinger: I agree.
David Gardner: Why Kenvue?
Matthew Argersinger: I have no idea.
David Gardner: I don't either. How about a company or stock that just has a really dull, literal name?
Matthew Argersinger: I don't know, something like Mueller Industries comes to mind, which I think makes hydrants.
David Gardner: That is dull, and yet, what I was looking for here is a literal meaning of a word, not a name.
Matthew Argersinger: I see.
David Gardner: Not someone's name.
Matthew Argersinger: I see.
David Gardner: But like ACME blank, a thing. Can you think of a company like that?
Matthew Argersinger: Illinois Tool Works.
David Gardner: That's pretty good. Bill, anything come to mind?
Bill Barker: That's pretty good. Canadian Railways.
Matthew Argersinger: There we go.
David Gardner: Sure. Pretty straightforward. This is not the stock we're about to talk about, but I was thinking about Pool Corporation. Ticker symbol POOL. The largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies and equipment, Pool Corporation. This company is like that. The company's original breakthrough product was Bubble Wrap, which works, by the way, by trapping sealed air inside plastic bubbles, creating cushioning. When Alfred Fielding and his pal, Marc founded the company in 1960, the core idea was that air itself, when sealed, could be a protective material. Sealed Air is the company map. The ticker symbol is SEE. This is not, by the way, a stock that the Motley Fool has ever recommended. We have very little research background on this company. I picked this one again, randomizing ticker symbols, and here we go. Sealed Air. Now, Matt, right now, you're down 5-3 as I think we all know. This is big, and we're looking for your stated market cap range for Sealed Air Corporation.
Matthew Argersinger: David, I'm going to go with 5-12 billion for Sealed Air.
David Gardner: $5-12 billion. Listeners at home. Bill Barker, Bill, before you agree or disagree, any thoughts just about Bubble Wrap?
Bill Barker: Fun. It's always fun to have some Bubble Wrap around, isn't it?
David Gardner: Crackle it. I agree. I wish they'd name themselves Bubble Wrap Corporation.
Bill Barker: The kids like it, the cats like it.
David Gardner: It's fun. This time of year, it's even more relevant, lot of packaging, lot of shipping going on.
Bill Barker: Sometimes, you get a lot of packaging, and you get those little styrofoam peanuts.
David Gardner: Those peanuts are terrible.
Bill Barker: What are you going to do with those?
Matthew Argersinger: I like the Bubble Wrap. I'm a Bubble Wrap guy.
David Gardner: I totally agree.
Matthew Argersinger: Not the peanuts.
David Gardner: Out with the Styrofoam. I don't know who's making that. I don't think it's Sealed Air, though.
Bill Barker: Not throwing this away until every single one of these bubbles is popped.
David Gardner: Come on. It's for the kids. Players at home Bill Barker. Matt said 5-12 billion. Bill, do you want to agree or disagree with Matt's assertion?
Bill Barker: I think that last time he gave a good range, and neither one of us really knew that much, and I disagreed with it, but thought the range was good. I feel I'm in the same spot here. I'm going to agree.
David Gardner: Bill is going to agree. Players at home, agree or disagree? You've locked that in. We have our final four participant for March Market Cap Madness because that was the correct decision. The market cap for this company is $6.08 billion. Matt surely, this always feels a little bit wrong about this game. You killed it, Matt. You did a good job with a good range, and yet somehow Bill and everybody else gets the point.
Matthew Argersinger: He just stole it. That's what it feels like.
David Gardner: It feels stolen.
Bill Barker: I know, I feel someday in the future, the game may be perfect, where you may say, what if you got
David Gardner: No, I think the game is perfect.
Bill Barker: The game is perfect.
David Gardner: The game is perfect.
Bill Barker: What you just said, it feels a little unfair.
David Gardner: Thirty eight quarters we have evolved at this point. Maybe we need to evolve, again.
Bill Barker: He did a better job in that moment than I know.
Matthew Argersinger: I love it. I love the game.
David Gardner: That was important. It's like AI is doing a lot of the work. Maybe Matt was your AI Bill doing the work for you. But ultimately, you chose that monk joke. You chose to bring that to halftime, and you chose to agree with his market cap range. Give yourself a pat on the back champ.
Bill Barker: I'm going to take the victory, and I feel a little bad about it.
Matthew Argersinger: Go get slaughtered by Emily Flippen in March, has it.
David Gardner: We still have a company. We're going to play this one out, but I want to mention, by the way, over time, Sealed Air has expanded far beyond Bubble Wrap, even though it's iconic product that it started with, and I think it should be called that. But they're now in food safety, protective packaging like Cryovac. But anyway, I just want to say, guys, this has not been a great stock. Company's been public for more than 40 years just to a $6 billion market cap today. That's sitting out there on the New York Stock Exchange for an awfully long time. Not really compounding. I checked it 25 years ago, year 2000. It was at $25 a share. Today, it's at 41.
Matthew Argersinger: What if it's paid a dividend over that time? Maybe that's helped a little bit.
David Gardner: Maybe a little bit.
Matthew Argersinger: But, it's not a huge recent market cap.
Bill Barker: They're really not in the business of rewarding shareholders, but of providing fun to.
Matthew Argersinger: That's true. It's all about the kids.
David Gardner: Cats.
Matthew Argersinger: Shareholder returns. Come on. It's fun to kids.
Bill Barker: Children of all ages.
David Gardner: I will say just checking it now, the yield on this stock is 1.95%. About 2% yield.
Matthew Argersinger: Probably hasn't been a huge contributor to the returns.
Bill Barker: No.
David Gardner: Also, run. But we love our Bubble Wrap. Let's move on to Stock number 10. It is Barker 6, Argersinger 3 as I often point out at this point, Matt, human beings tend to remember the last thing that happened. There's a recency bias to how you close out that could really change, I don't know, the calculus.
Matthew Argersinger: It's like when I play a game with my kid, it's whoever wins last is the winner.
David Gardner: There we go.
Matthew Argersinger: I can get this last one.
Bill Barker: Next shot wins.
David Gardner: There's a chance. Let's turn to Bill Barker here as we close with Stock number 10. Bill, here's something else I've noticed. We've gotten used to automation inside buildings. But it's still surprising when it shows up on sidewalks. Have you had one of those moments yet?
Bill Barker: One of those moments where automation is on the sidewalk.
David Gardner: Technology is moving into public spaces. I don't know whether people are resisting or accepting, robots are starting to proliferate in some of our neighborhoods, sometimes, doing last mile deliveries for even companies like Uber or other partners that are trying to ship something to your door. Have you seen one of those?
Bill Barker: Other than the driverless cars, I've seen those.
David Gardner: That is an example.
Matthew Argersinger: Bill was thinking about segues.
Bill Barker: Segues weren't kicking. I was thinking about.
Matthew Argersinger: Two years ago, they were hot. They were on the sidewalk.
Bill Barker: Those things that look like the villains from Dr. Ho that go around Heathrow, and I don't know terrorize people.
David Gardner: Have you ever looked at Serve Robotics?
Bill Barker: I have not.
David Gardner: The ticker symbol is SERV, and Serve Robotics develops small autonomous delivery robots designed to handle short last mile deliveries. Pretty much on sidewalks. The stretch between a restaurant or store and your front door. The company's focused on making local delivery cheaper, more reliable by automating simple trips that don't require human judgment while operating in public spaces where trust and safety and acceptance matter just as much as the technology itself. I think we can all picture this product, even if we haven't benefited from it yet, and whether or not it reaches full societal acceptance, only Bill Barker probably knows. Bill, what is your stated market cap range for Serve Robotics ticker symbol SERV?
Bill Barker: One to three billion.
David Gardner: $1-3 billion. Matt, have you looked at this one?
Matthew Argersinger: I have not looked at this one.
David Gardner: I don't think they're paying a dividend.
Matthew Argersinger: Probably not showing up on my radar. That's a good range, because I feel it is in the small cap range.
David Gardner: I will mention they're not making money yet.
Bill Barker: Wait, you're just helping him now. You're just helping him.
David Gardner: I think a lot of us feel a little bit for, Matt, at this moment. I'm trying to prompt something.
Matthew Argersinger: Everything I can get. I'm going to disagree.
David Gardner: Bill, you said $1-$3 billion. Players at home, Matt has just disagreed. What do you think? You thought that. If you disagreed with Bill's range, give yourself a plus one, because, sure enough, this company is even smaller than the $1 billion low end of Bill's parameter. Serve Robotics 742 million 0.23. Good range, though.
Bill Barker: If you hadn't had that helpful hint at the end.
David Gardner: This is an interesting company. Bill, I know you've done some work with Firecrackers. Motley Fool Firecrackers put in a buy last September, not 2025, but 2024 at $7 a share. I have seen our TMF Moneyball portfolio and tool on the site take a shine to the stock in the single digits throughout 2025. Stocks now 10. An interesting one to keep track of. This is a microcap company. We're talking about a sub $1 billion company as Matt now fully appreciates as he closes out with a fourth point, which I think was just one away from overtime, which would have been dramatic.
Matthew Argersinger: I feel OK about my performance today and to lose to Bill, who I think is bested me in the past, it's always an honor, Bill.
Bill Barker: What would have been the overtime stock? Maybe, Matt, gets to tighten it to 6-5.
David Gardner: I Awill admit that often I know what it is, but I had not prepped that. I was going to pause the show if you guys were in overtime, and then randomize right then in front of you, of course, you wouldn't see. We'll just have to leave that to the mists of time.
Bill Barker: In part of the multiverse, I think. It's been done. You got it. It's 6-5.
David Gardner: A better version that nailed it. I do want to note, guys, this is a little sad for me. This week, which again, for holiday listeners around Christmas time, would have been last week because we recorded on Wednesday, December 17th. This week that I'm speaking in right now, speaking of robots, my former Rule Breakers pick of iRobot announced bankruptcy, which I'm sad about. At different points, iRobot was a serious winner for our Rule Breakers members. Just didn't finish out well. Roomba, but not a lot after that.
Matthew Argersinger: We interviewed Colin Angle, the CEO and Co-Founder at gosh, it was CS 2013, 2014, somewhere in that era. That was when it was, the Roomba was on fire. It had the big market share and they were launching the Scooba and all these other products. It really felt that was their time. Since then-
David Gardner: I think they got a buyout offer. I think Amazon said, we're going to buy you out a blah to blah, and then it fell through, or it wasn't approved and that really hurt this tiny company. We'll wish better things for Serve Robotics. I realize some people may have mixed feelings about robots going past them down the sidewalk, delivering somebody their fajita. But that's the world we're moving into, guys.
Bill Barker: I look forward to actually the first time, I see.
Matthew Argersinger: I'm still waiting for the drone deliveries, too. I know we're supposed to get those at some point.
David Gardner: You're right. That's like the Scooba. When is that going to happen, actually?
Bill Barker: Do you still find it cool when there's a driverless car going by you?
Matthew Argersinger: Yes.
David Gardner: I saw an image this week of and somebody took this, a video of a Tesla that had no driver at all. It was literally out on the highway just driving itself. Perhaps a show of confidence, obviously, a test and learn for Tesla, but there was literally nobody in the car at all, and it was out there going.
Bill Barker: I've seen plenty of that in cities.
David Gardner: You're right. Waymo. They're out there mapping.
Bill Barker: Not on the highway, so I haven't seen that yet.
David Gardner: It's out. Holiday greetings to all on this holiday edition of the Market Cap Game Show. I want to thank, especially my two talented guest stars, Bill Barker and Matt Argersinger. The final accounting then is this Bill 6, Matt 4. But Bill and Matt and I know that we're not playing this game for each other. We're playing it for you. How did you score? Dear Fool, dear listener at home, we hope that you outscored all of us. The purpose of the Market Cap Game Show is to make more popular, and I'm never going to say as popular as Jeopardy, but to make more popular market caps, the real value of stocks on the market that most people don't understand. Except that you do understand because you just listened to us for an hour, and I hope you scored at least a few points this week and maybe beat one or both of our talented competitors. Bill and Matt, you both distinguish yourselves and help make the world a little bit smarter, happier, and richer this week. Bill, I will see you, sir, in March. Next week is our year end December Mailbag. I hope you're able to enjoy a lovely holiday, dear listener, wherever you are. Before we go, a last line from you, Bill.
Bill Barker: I want to just plug the most recent episode of Money Unplugged with Chris Hill, where Bill Mann and I revisited the Apropos of Nothing stupidity of the past.
David Gardner: I love that you did that. We just had Chris Hill on our besties last week, so a delight to have his name rocked again, and I've always enjoyed you and Bill Mann and Chris Hill together. That, no doubt, is worthy holiday podcast listening. Thank you for much.
Bill Barker: It's a holiday edition, of course, so that is my attempt to wish people a happy holiday is with that show.
David Gardner: Excellent. A last line for you, Matt.
Matthew Argersinger: Read David's book Rule Breaker Lesson. Read 1929 by Andrew Ross Sorkin, as well.
David Gardner: Excellent.
Matthew Argersinger: Books on very opposite spectrums, but just also so illuminating, you will absolutely get smarter, and I think richer by doing so.
David Gardner: Thank you very much. Again, Bill, Matt, thank you guys. Fool on, and to our listener, thanks for hanging with us. Hope you had fun. Happy holidays. Fool on.
