The world was stunned over the weekend by the audacious and successful U.S. raid that ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. In a Saturday press conference discussing the operation, President Donald Trump brought up how it might impact U.S. oil companies:
"We're going to have our very large U.S. oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country."
When the markets reopened on Monday, however, just three oil company stocks seemed to benefit. Here's why these three oil stocks surged after Venezuelan President Maduro's capture and whether they're likely to reap long-term gains.
Image source: Getty Images.
Overall, the market yawned
The market as a whole seemed unfazed by the weekend's events. The S&P 500 opened 0.49% higher than its Friday close, and went on to rise another 0.14% during the trading session.
In fact, it was only the three largest U.S. oil companies -- integrated majors Chevron (CVX +3.22%) and ExxonMobil (XOM +1.96%), and the largest independent oil exploration and production company (E&P), ConocoPhillips (COP +2.67%) -- that experienced price surges. ExxonMobil's shares were up 2.5% from Friday's close and ConocoPhillips' were up 3.1%, but Chevron was the big winner, with shares finishing up 5.5%.
No other oil stocks seemed affected. Shares of French oil major TotalEnergies (TTE +0.40%) slipped 0.35% during the session, while shares of Anglo-Dutch oil major Shell (SHEL +1.61%) sank 0.48%. British oil major BP (BP +1.56%) was up by a meager 0.87% at the end of Monday's trading. Even smaller U.S. E&Ps didn't see any benefit. Occidental Petroleum (OXY +5.70%), EOG Resources (EOG +1.87%), and Diamondback Energy (FANG +1.99%) saw their share prices drop between 4% and 5% at the start of the session, and all three stocks finished down between 0.6% and 2.9% by the end of the day.
So why did only the stocks of Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips surge?
NYSE: CVX
Key Data Points
Billions in Venezuela
I'm not going to bore you with a lengthy history of Venezuela's oil industry. Briefly, Venezuela is home to one of the largest oil deposits in the world, estimated to be even larger than Saudi Arabia's. Oil is the country's largest export; it produces about 1 million barrels per day.
U.S. oil companies have had operations in Venezuela for over a century. However, in 2007, Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez nationalized the country's oil industry, forcing U.S. companies to become minority stakeholders.
Chevron was the only U.S. oil company that went along with this arrangement. It still operates several Venezuelan oilfields, which collectively produce 20% to 25% of Venezuela's total oil output.
Image source: Getty Images.
ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, on the other hand, chose to exit the country instead, but they didn't go quietly. They sued the Venezuelan government in international arbitration courts, which ordered Venezuela to gradually pay ExxonMobil more than $1 billion and ConocoPhillips over $10 billion. When the U.S. put sanctions on Venezuelan oil in 2019, the Venezuelan government stopped making those payments.
Clearly, investors believed that Chevron -- as the only U.S. oil company active in Venezuela -- was the likeliest beneficiary of a more U.S.-friendly oil policy. The market also clearly thought there was a renewed chance that ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips might get additional compensation for their outstanding claims.
But is any of that likely to actually happen?
A cold shower
By Tuesday, things were looking a lot less straightforward for Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips. None of the companies publicly committed to new investments in Venezuela, and estimates began to come out suggesting that revitalizing the country's neglected oil industry would cost tens of billions of dollars over several years.
In response, ConocoPhillips' shares dropped 1.8%, ExxonMobil's tumbled 3.2%, and Monday's big winner, Chevron, was Tuesday's big loser, with shares sliding 4.2%, the stock's worst performance since April 2025.
As of Tuesday's close, the three stocks were roughly back where they'd closed on Friday: ConocoPhillips was up 0.8%, Chevron's was up 0.7%, and ExxonMobil's was down 1.1%. Ironically, all three were losing to the S&P 500, which was up 1.3% for the first two days of the week.
Image source: Getty Images.
Ultimately, it's too soon to tell how the situation in Venezuela will play out for U.S. oil companies. It's possible that new offshore opportunities might open up for U.S. oil drillers, perhaps benefiting Chevron, which already operates an offshore rig in Venezuela, or ExxonMobil, which has extensive offshore operations in neighboring Guyana. It's possible that the U.S. will be able to convince the Venezuelan government to allocate money or oil to partially compensate ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips for their claims. Increased investment in Venezuela's oil industry could also be a boon for U.S. refiners, many of whose Gulf Coast refineries are set up to process heavy crude like Venezuela's.
On the other hand, it's also possible that anti-American sentiment in Venezuela or a backlash from the Venezuelan government convinces U.S. oil CEOs that it's better to avoid the country for the long term. Until we have more clarity, smart investors won't factor Venezuela into their investment theses for Chevron, ExxonMobil, or ConocoPhillips.
