Centrus Energy (LEU +7.95%), a supplier of nuclear fuel and services, saw its stock nearly quadruple over the past 12 months. The growing demand for nuclear power, new partnerships and contract extensions, and its ambitious expansion plans fueled that market-beating rally.
Will Centrus' stock soar even higher over the next 12 months? Let's review its business model, growth rates, and valuations to determine if it remains a worthwhile investment.
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What does Centrus Energy do?
Centrus Energy is one of a handful of U.S. companies that are licensed to sell low-enriched uranium (LEU), the fuel used in most commercial nuclear reactors. It's also the only publicly listed company in the U.S. that produces high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) for advanced nuclear reactors. Those advantages make it an attractive way to profit from the expansion of the nuclear energy market and the development of next-gen reactors.
NYSE: LEU
Key Data Points
Centrus previously enriched its own LEU on a commercial scale at its own U.S. plants. However, it shut down those plants in 2013 because it became cheaper to import enriched uranium than to operate those aging U.S. facilities. That same year, the "Megatons to Megawatts" program -- a U.S.-Russia deal in which enriched weapons materials from dismantled Russian warheads were downblended into LEU for nuclear fuel -- ended.
The shutdown of its U.S. plants and the end of the downblending program led to a decline in revenue, from $1.86 billion in 2012 to $514 million in 2014. The 2011 Fukushima disaster, which prompted many countries to pause their nuclear plans, exacerbated that slowdown. Uranium's spot price per pound fell from a peak of $136 in July 2007 to a trough of $18 in November 2016.
After shutting down its own domestic plants, Centrus became a middleman that purchased large quantities of overseas LEU and resold it to domestic utility companies. It locks those customers into medium- to long-term contracts, which guarantee a set amount of LEU enrichment services, measured in separative work units (SWUs), and enriched uranium products over multiple years. It generates predictable recurring revenues from those utilities, but its year-to-year growth is still tightly tethered to fluctuating uranium prices.
Centrus no longer enriches its own LEU on a commercial scale, but it's still enriching its own HALEU for small-scale government contracts. The smaller HALEU business could become a significant growth engine in the future as more utility companies construct advanced nuclear reactors.
How fast is Centrus Energy growing?
From 2014 to 2018, Centrus' revenue declined from $514 million to $193 million as uranium prices fell, and it sold fewer SWUs. Yet from 2018 to 2024, its revenue grew at a CAGR of 15% to $442 million as the global demand for nuclear energy heated up again. Its production of HALEU for the U.S. government, which started in 2023, amplified those gains.
New decarbonization initiatives, the rapid growth of power-hungry cloud services, high-performance computing (HPC), and artificial intelligence (AI) markets, as well as the development of safer and more efficient reactor technologies, have all generated strong demand for enriched uranium. Many uranium miners, such as Cameco (CCJ +0.68%), had also throttled their production as uranium's spot prices declined, and geopolitical conflicts impacted several uranium-rich countries.
All of those factors drove uranium's spot price back to $81.55 per pound at the end of 2025. Some bullish analysts expect its spot price to rise to $100 in 2026 and $140 in 2027 as market demand continues to outstrip its available supply.
From 2024 to 2027, analysts expect Centrus' revenue to grow at a CAGR of 7% to $538 million as its earnings per share (EPS) increase at a CAGR of 2%. Those growth rates may seem modest, but Dataintelo expects the global HALEU fuel market to expand at a CAGR of 21.9% from 2025 to 2033, as more utilities construct advanced reactors and small modular reactors (SMRs). Therefore, Centrus' growth could accelerate after 2027 as its HALEU business expands.
Where will Centrus' stock be in a year?
Centrus will continue to grow as long as the nuclear market remains strong. However, excessive growth might already be baked into its current valuation. At $286 per share with a market cap of $5.2 billion, it's already trading at 72 times this year's earnings and 11 times this year's sales.
Therefore, I don't expect Centrus' stock to replicate its market-beating gains from the past 12 months. It could gradually rise higher if uranium's spot price continues to climb, but its premium valuations will likely limit its upside potential until more near-term catalysts emerge.
