The electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) industry is in its infancy. There aren't any flying taxis transporting people in big cities in the U.S. just yet, but it's an exciting opportunity that many growth investors have been bullish on recently.
One company that's leading the charge in that space today is Joby Aviation (JOBY 4.59%), which has soared around 360% since the start of 2023. It has generated significant returns for investors already. But with 2026 potentially being the year that it commences commercial operations, there may still be more room for the stock to rise higher.
Could investing in Joby Aviation stock today double your money?
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Hype has cooled of late, but that could change quickly
Joby says it has been making progress toward certifying its aircraft, and it has been deploying test flights, as it hopes to launch commercial operations in the Middle East later this year, with the United Arab Emirates looking to be one of the first markets its air taxis may enter.
The progress, however, may be too slow for growth investors who have lost interest in the stock. Not only has the stock lost more than 5% in value over the past three months, but trading volumes are also down significantly during that stretch.
JOBY 30-Day Average Daily Volume data by YCharts
When it comes to speculative stocks such as Joby, a lot is going to hinge on the interest and excitement from retail investors. And with no big news of late, there hasn't been a compelling reason to invest.
However, if the company is able to launch air taxi services this year, regardless of where they happen to be, that could be a huge catalyst for the stock. The question is whether there is room to rise given its high price tag.
Joby's valuation is still fairly high
Joby's stock has already benefited from a lot of excitement around eVTOLs, as its market cap is at $14 billion. That's significant for a company whose business model remains unproven. Even if its eVTOLs start transporting consumers, how much demand there will be for them, how practical they will prove to be, and how profitable they will be are all important questions for investors to consider. Answers to those questions will play a big role in determining whether the stock can generate far greater returns for investors from here on out.
Analysts aren't convinced, at least not yet, anyway. The consensus analyst price target for Joby is $13.43 as of Monday, which suggests a downside of more than 10% from where it currently trades. That can, of course, change if the company obtains approval for its eVTOLs and if it commences air taxi services in the Middle East or the U.S. For now, however, this is a high-risk, high-reward type of investment to hold.
NYSE: JOBY
Key Data Points
The stock could double, but it could also crash significantly
Joby's stock is trading as if it is far and away ahead of its rivals. Archer Aviation, for instance, has a market cap of around $6.4 billion. If Joby is unable to prove that it's further along and a much safer business to invest in than Archer, there could be some significant downward pressure on its valuation in the future.
There is potential for Joby to double in value given the opportunities for eVTOLs to revolutionize travel in the long term, particularly in congested cities, but the company has by no means proven that it'll be successful and profitable.
At the end of the day, this is still a highly speculative company and one that has incurred losses totaling more than $1 billion over the past 12 months. Unless you have a high risk tolerance, you may want to take a wait-and-see approach with Joby, as there's already enough risk with eVTOL stocks as it is; Joby's high valuation only increases it.
