The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has sparked a frenzy well beyond the technology sector. While the intersection of hardware and software remains largely dominated by semiconductor stocks, a new opportunity at this juncture is beginning to emerge: quantum computing.
In 2025, quantum computing stocks soared. Shares of the Defiance Quantum ETF surged 35% -- nearly double the performance of the S&P 500. One popular quantum computing stock that was relatively muted last year, however, was IonQ (IONQ 3.47%) -- which gained a pedestrian 7%.
Read on to find out what's fueling IonQ's current price action and understand where the stock could be headed in 2026.
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IonQ is putting on a masterclass in financial shenanigans
Between January and mid-October, shares of IonQ gained a jaw-dropping 73%. As referenced above, though, the stock finished the year with a mundane single-digit percentage increase. What drove the sell-off during the final months of 2025? In my eyes, it all boils down to IonQ's financial profile.
Despite the allure of quantum computing, investors may not realize that this technology is not yet applicable in commercial settings. In other words, quantum computers are not moving the needle for businesses at the enterprise level. Rather, the technology primarily remains a function of research and development.
Nevertheless, IonQ has done a stellar job of marketing its trapped ion technology as some sort of next-generation application on the brink of a breakout. Through the first nine months of 2025, IonQ generated $68 million in revenue -- handily beating management's guidance.
Given quantum computing's limited traction in the broader sense, wouldn't investors be enthusiastic that IonQ is growing at all? Well, the answer is far more nuanced than that.
Over the last year, IonQ spent $2.5 billion on acquisitions. Since the company's technology is still in development phases, IonQ has padded its top line by acquiring tangential businesses in the quantum AI arena. This illusion of robust growth ignited a prolonged rally that is only now beginning to reverse course.
IONQ Shares Outstanding data by YCharts
In order to fund these acquisitions, IonQ has been issuing stock. Over the last year, the company's outstanding share count has risen by almost 60% -- significantly diluting shareholders in the process.
My intuition is telling me that more investors are waking up to the fact that IonQ is a stock that, for quite some time, was trading on narratives and hype. But when analysts take a thorough look underneath the hood, smart investors understand that the company's approach of issuing stock to raise capital and augment its product pipeline is not sustainable in the long run.
History is clear on which direction IonQ stock is headed
While IonQ stock didn't move much last year, shares are still up by nearly 1,200% throughout the entirety of the AI revolution. Over the last three years, IonQ stock has risen from penny stock levels to its current price of roughly $51 per share.
While these figures are interesting to look at in isolation, they don't reveal much about IonQ's true valuation. Right now, IonQ trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 158. For reference, Cisco's P/S multiple peaked at about 33 during the height of the dot-com bubble -- only to later plummet by 60% by the end of 2000, once the euphoric sentiment around the internet had faded.
IONQ PS Ratio data by YCharts
Is IonQ stock a buy in 2026?
Here's the ironic thing about comparing Cisco to IonQ: During the dot-com era, Cisco actually had products that it was selling to large corporations all around the world. By contrast, IonQ is still vying to prove its technology deserves a leading position within the broader AI ecosystem.
NYSE: IONQ
Key Data Points
Should IonQ stock drop by 60% -- mimicking Cisco's decline -- shares would trade in the range of $20.
However, not only do I think IonQ stock is on a crash course with history, but I think shares could be headed for a much steeper decline than what Cisco witnessed in the aftermath of the internet bubble given that IonQ has little in the way of a marketable value proposition at this time.
Against this backdrop, I see IonQ stock cratering well below the $20 range by year-end 2026. I see the stock as nothing more than a speculative vehicle for day traders. Investors with long-term horizons seeking to build durable wealth are likely best avoiding IonQ until the company can prove it has legitimate potential in the AI world.
