Digital advertising specialist The Trade Desk (TTD +1.75%) isn't getting much Wall Street love nowadays.
As of Jan. 20, the stock has been setting new 52-week lows regularly. Actually, scratch that -- The Trade Desk is trading at multi-year lows with prices not seen since June 2020.
Earnings reports added to the gloom in 2025. The company missed Wall Street's and its own revenue targets in last February's Q4 report, and after that, the stock fell even after great quarterly reports.
The first earnings season of calendar year 2026 just started, and The Trade Desk's report should drop in early February. Will this report break last year's gloomy pattern, making The Trade Desk a good stock to buy in January?
Here's what you should expect in a couple of weeks.
Image source: Getty Images.
The numbers matter, but the narrative is more important
Here's the thing about The Trade Desk's upcoming report: the numbers almost don't matter.
I mean, they do -- analysts want roughly $841 million in revenue (up from $749 million) and $0.34 per share in earnings (down from $0.59). Management guided for revenue of at least $840 million. But this stock fell after strong reports all 2025 long. The market is in a mood, and even solid numbers are no guarantee of a bullish Street reaction.
So yes, check the numbers. But pay closer attention to the narrative signals:
- Is the leadership overhaul working? The Trade Desk remodeled its financial management team in 2025, choosing a new COO, CFO, and CRO (chief revenue officer). That's three people in three top roles, not one person in several chairs. Investors will want hints that the transition is smooth and maybe even energizing.
- Is Kokai's adoption real traction or just migration? 85% of clients now default to the AI-powered ad-buying platform. But are they spending more in this system? Is The Trade Desk winning new accounts as a result?
- International expansion is a growth engine, but is it humming or sputtering? Overseas deals account for 13% of total revenue, and this segment is growing faster than the domestic sales. This juncture is where the long-term expansion story can get exciting, as long as the results keep popping.
- The walled-garden contrast: CEO Jeff Green has built his brand on being the anti-Alphabet (GOOG 0.50%) (GOOGL 0.47%) alternative. The company's Unified ID 2 (UID2) framework offers advertisers a way to target users across the open web without relying on Google's ecosystem or third-party cookies. Does that message still resonate when ad budgets are tight?
One more thing: the company added $500 million to its buyback authorization last quarter. At these prices, that's management putting money where their mouth is. Whether the market rewards that confidence is another question.
The bottom line for investors
So, should you buy The Trade Desk stock before the Q4 report?
I won't pretend I know what the market will do in February. The Trade Desk's stock dropped after good earnings reports last year. Management set a top-line target they couldn't meet in the last Q4 report, and investors haven't forgiven them a year later. Moreover, Wall Street is in a de-risking mood, and moods don't always respond to the cold, hard logic of strong financial results.
If you already own shares, you might just want to hold tight. The thesis hasn't broken. The business is growing. Let it play out, for better or worse.
But if you've been eyeing The Trade Desk from the sidelines, waiting for a better entry, this could be your entry point.
NASDAQ: TTD
Key Data Points
Starting a 2026 position at 2020 prices
The stock is back to 2020 prices. The company is not back to 2020 fundamentals, though. It's miles ahead. New leadership, Kokai humming along, fast-growing international markets barely tapped so far, and a CEO who won't stop explaining why The Trade Desk is better than the walled gardens of traditional online advertising. There's a lot to love here, with or without generous stock returns along the way.
And you noticed the $500 million addition to the buyback budget, right? At these prices, that's not a defensive move -- that's opportunism. Management seems to think their own stock is a better use of cash than acquisitions or new projects right now. Following their lead makes sense.
Will the Q4 report fix everything? Probably not. One quarter is never the whole story. But if you're investing for years, not weeks, you should consider starting a small position now. Buy a little, see what happens, and keep some dry powder in case the market throws another tantrum.
