Investors who have bought into Rivian Automotive's (RIVN 2.27%) vision to perhaps become one of the next young electric vehicle (EV) makers to strike it big and wiggle its way into the market knew that 2025 was going to be a slow year for the automaker. There were no vehicle launches, just immense behind-the-scenes work to get production of the R2 ready for mainstream volume.
Despite a slow news year for the stock, and multiple headwinds thanks to changing trade policy, tariffs, and the end of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, hype for the upcoming R2 helped drive Rivian stock nearly 50% higher in 2025 -- and now the moment is finally near with recent news out of Rivian.
Validation is here
As of last week, Rivian has officially begun rolling out validation units from its Normal, Illinois, factory that was updated and expanded to initially produce the R2 during the first half of 2026. Rivian's Illinois plant was modified to introduce the new assembly lines for the dedicated R2 platform and had tooling installed in record time to meet its deliveries target for the first half of 2026.
Image source: Rivian.
The decision, made over a year ago, to pull production ahead and delay its Georgia factory was a move that saved the company over $2.25 billion but last week's potential "Model 3 moment" should have investors excited about the company in the near term.
Investors have closely followed the development of the R2, a critically important vehicle designed to be higher-volume and lower-cost that will open doors to a much larger addressable market and expand beyond the higher price points of its premium R1S and R1T markets.
What to watch
Validation production units are generally the automotive industry's final stage before "saleable" production begins, but these initial vehicles are built on the real production assembly line with production tooling, rather than being assembled by hand as prototypes. These units are used for certifications, crash testing, and EPA range estimates.
NASDAQ: RIVN
Key Data Points
Here's what investors can initially expect, with deliveries likely to start at the end of the first quarter or beginning of the second quarter. The R2 base trim is expected to start around $45,000 but generally automakers put premium trims in production first, which will come with a higher price tag initially.
Over the next year, however, investors can obviously expect an uptick in sales, deliveries, and revenue, but what investors need to watch in the coming quarters is the impact to Rivian's gross margin.
Data source: Rivian SEC filings. Chart by author.
While the company has made consistent progress, and even achieved positive gross profits to unlock additional investment from its joint venture with Volkswagen Group, the profitability of Rivian's R2 will have a sizable impact on how the stock trades going forward. The R2 will be a huge step forward for Rivian, and thankfully after a slower 2025 the moment is very near. If it can help drive gross profitability higher in the near term it will be a huge leap forward for investors.
