In the same way artificial intelligence (AI) completely revolutionized computing technology, quantum computing promises to revolutionize AI. That's because quantum platforms can process unthinkable amounts of digital data. Problems that would take modern-day platforms decades to work out can now be solved in a matter of minutes.
This is why shares of the nascent industry's companies -- like Quantum Computing, IonQ, and Rigetti Computing -- have performed so well (even if erratically) since 2024, when the tech graduated from being mostly theoretical to legitimately commercial.
What if, however, investors are overlooking a hugely important detail about quantum computing's commercial future, and overlooking its best opportunity as a result?
Image source: Getty Images.
Well, that seems to be the case. The quantum revolution's biggest beneficiary may actually be hiding in plain sight, positioned perfectly to capitalize on what Precedence Research believes will be average annual growth of more than 30% through 2034, when this tech could be providing up to $2 trillion worth of net collective value for its users (according to Bank of America).
That company? Software giant Microsoft (MSFT 2.17%). Here's why.
Microsoft is in the game
It might be a surprising pick to anyone keeping tabs on the quantum computing industry. Microsoft is working on the tech to be sure. As of the middle of last year, however, it didn't have anything near ready to monetize. And what it did have was ... questionable.
Its flagship quantum computing chip (called Majorana 1) is a topological qubit platform designed to be more immune to errors than more conventional quantum computers. But no one outside of the company has ever actually seen it demonstrated to work as described.
That may not mean much -- at least not yet. Alphabet's impressive "Willow" quantum chip also remains uncommercialized, and while IBM may be generating actual quantum revenue thanks to its sizable head start, it's not exactly a game-changing fiscal success. It may offer more computing power than most of the market actually needs just yet. Or, perhaps, would-be customers don't yet see the value.
The point is, Microsoft wasn't merely seeking publicity when it touted Majorana a year ago. It just doesn't need to prove its quantum computing prowess to anyone yet. The company is simply confident that it will be able to do so when the time is right, and its chip is ready for monetization.
"The next big accelerator in the cloud"
Great. But how does any of this make Microsoft a better quantum bet than a pure play like Quantum Computing?
In simplest terms, Microsoft already enjoys established relationships with many of the same companies and organizations that will eventually choose to tap the power of quantum computing when it's fully ready for commercial use.
Case in point: NASA is currently leveraging Microsoft's Azure AI to help it figure out how to handle healthcare on deep space missions. This is still just the beginning, though. It's not inconceivable that quantum computing platforms could be utilized to develop whole new kinds of space propulsion systems. The London Stock Exchange Group, meanwhile, is utilizing Microsoft's cloud-based AI offerings in a completely different way. It's using its trove of digital data to help customers and clients to create predictive financial models. Then there's credit card giant Mastercard. It's working with Microsoft on next-generation AI-powered identity verification solutions, protecting consumers from a growing number of risks they face when shopping online.
And this is just a sampling. Microsoft says 85% of Fortune 500 companies are now using one of its AI solutions, which fluidly extend the productivity software the company is already well known for.
NASDAQ: MSFT
Key Data Points
So what? When the time comes, Microsoft's already got a lengthy list of quantum computing prospects.
It's also a reasonably safe bet the company will make its own quantum computing solutions easy to use by offering access to Majorana 1 as an option from within Microsoft's Azure cloud computing interface, as it already has with Rigetti's and IonQ's quantum platforms. It doesn't get much easier than that, particularly for clients who are already Azure customers.
Investors might not have to wait much longer to find out, either. Although he wasn't pressed to make the comment at the time, during August's quarterly earnings call, CEO Satya Nadella still was confident enough to say "the next big accelerator in the cloud will be quantum, and I'm excited about progress." Separately, Microsoft Executive Vice President Jason Zander suggested early last year that the company's quantum chip could be commercialized through Azure before 2030.
For now, the general idea is compelling enough on its own
The chief challenge here is the lack of specificity with any of Microsoft's plans, and uncertain reliability with the company's developmental work (or for that matter, any of the industrywide forecasts). At the end of the day, everybody's just guessing -- a dynamic that doesn't exactly fuel robust bullishness.
Not every bullish nuance needs to be numerical in nature, though. Sometimes, the qualitative stuff with potential that won't even begin to become clear for several years is still enough. That was certainly the case for Tesla, or for Amazon when the e-commerce powerhouse took the surprising step of getting into the then-young cloud computing business in 2006. Now Amazon Web Services is the company's biggest moneymaker, accounting for nearly two-thirds of Amazon's operating profits. Microsoft's foray into the quantum computing market could be similarly successful, spurring similar bullishness from Microsoft's stock.
Bottom line? Even if you don't have all the details yet, sometimes investors can afford to have faith in a premise, like a proven technology company's ability to create something fruitful out of a new science like quantum computing.
