There's never a bad time to invest in a good company. Stepping in while its stock is down, however, is certainly a better time than the alternative.
If you're looking for a place to put some money to work for a while but are struggling to find a name worth owning at an entry price you can live with, consider a stake in Netflix (NFLX +0.37%) while the stock's priced more than 30% below its mid-2025 peak.Here's why.
Unpopular acquisition plans
Readers probably know why this might be a controversial pick. Netflix is offering $82.7 billion -- in cash -- to acquire most of rival Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 0.22%). Specifically, Netflix wants Warner Bros' streaming arm and studios, but not its cable television business.
For perspective, Warner Bros' streaming unit and studios are set to produce on the order of $22 billion worth of revenue in fiscal 2025, and roughly $3 billion of that would be turned into EBITDA. For more perspective, firmly profitable Netflix reported $45 billion in revenue for 2025, while its market cap stands at nearly $350 billion.
Given the uncertainty of an adequate payoff, the market is understandably nervous. This is an uncomfortably big bet. But what if investors are underestimating the likelihood and degree of success that awaits?
NASDAQ: NFLX
Key Data Points
The obvious strategic advantages
In a basic numerical sense, the deal's relative cost is dialed back a bit by the potential synergies in the combination of the two entertainment media powerhouses. Under the same umbrella, Netflix's management believes that Warner Bros' combined streaming and studio EBITDA could improve to $5.5 billion. Not bad.
The real upsides to this pairing, however, are the qualitative details that will eventually have a tangible positive effect on the bottom line. Chief among these advantages is what this deal gives Netflix that it doesn't already have -- at least, not in a meaningful way. That's one of the film and television industry's biggest and best studios. While Netflix has its own content-creation unit, this arm punts much of this work to subsidiaries or third-party production outfits.
Although the streaming giant initially intends to continue operating Warner Bros' business separately from Netflix, it's likely that Netflix will eventually begin using its own in-house -- and well-proven -- production capabilities.
Warner Bros brings much more to the table than its studios, however. It's also got a treasure trove of its own intellectual property that may currently be underutilized. It outright owns DC Comics (the company behind legendary superheroes like Superman and Batman), the Harry Potter franchise, and Looney Tunes, just to name a few. If this content is eventually offered by Netflix via a sub-channel like HBO Max available within the Netflix app -- as is widely expected -- Netflix's marketability improves.
That's not all that Warner Bros has that Netflix may want to utilize. Warner Bros also has existing distribution channels, including movie theaters. While Netflix has been able to inject some of its home-grown productions into the traditional film industry's revolving lineup, with Warner Bros' reach, it could do considerably more of it.
Impossible to quantify, but greater dominance is inevitable
None of these competitive advantages in and of themselves make Warner Bros' studios and streaming business worth nearly $83 billion. Even on a combined basis, they're not worth this much.
Rather, what makes this deal (which still needs to win regulatory approval) worth its steep price is more philosophical in nature. It will allow Netflix to fortify its existing dominance of the only sliver of the entertainment industry that's actually growing right now. That's streaming, of course. It's a business where size and scale matters, too.
This is especially true as Netflix's ad-supported aspect continues to evolve. While Netflix's advertising revenue more than doubled in 2025, it still only reached $1.5 billion. This figure's expected to double this year, and that's without any help from Warner Bros.
Image source: Getty Images.
Yet, this still only scratches the surface of the opportunity. Ad-subsidized or ad-supported television may well be the video industry's most important growth frontier. Imarc Group predicts that the United States' ad-supported market alone is poised to grow at an average annual pace of nearly 25% through 2033. Many advertisers may only want to use one single platform for their streaming ad campaign. The biggest one is likely to be their most cost-effective bet.
Mordor Intelligence believes that the worldwide streaming business itself is still poised to grow at an annualized rate of nearly 11% through 2031. The bigger the platform, the easier it is to capture at least its fair share of this growth.
From here, little risk and lots of reward
It's admittedly a tough call to get behind. Most of the rhetoric surrounding the intended acquisition remains pessimistic, with almost all of it focused on its sky-high cost. There's no denying that Netflix is offering quite a premium. The lack of certainty and specificity also undermines the long-term bullish argument.
Not every growth driver is quantitatively defined, though. Sometimes, investors must make an intuitive judgment call and trust that the company that essentially created the streaming industry knows what it's doing now. It's also possible that Netflix is just taking its top rival out, so to speak, thus preventing it from teaming up with another competitor.
Think about it like this. If this deal is such a lousy one for Netflix and it's either barred by the Department of Justice or topped by a competing offer from Paramount Skydance (PSKY 0.44%), some might argue that Netflix would be better off. This would -- in theory, anyway -- restore much of the value that's been lost since Netflix first announced its intentions in early December.
Despite all the recent drama, the analyst community still likes this stock. Most continue to call it a strong buy, with a consensus price target of $113.42 -- more than 30% above this ticker's present price. That's not a bad way to start out a new position.
