If you're thinking about investing in XRP (XRP 0.64%), there's good reason to be nervous. The world's fifth-largest cryptocurrency is down 22% to start the year and has declined a whopping 60% from its 52-week high of $3.65. Currently, XRP trades for just $1.47.
If XRP is going to make a move higher, the time is now. Unfortunately, that doesn't appear likely, especially with market bellwether Bitcoin (BTC 1.30%) down big. Far more likely is the prospect of XRP dropping below the psychologically important $1 price level.
CRYPTO: XRP
Key Data Points
XRP's historical track record
For much of its history, XRP has been a sub-$1 crypto. That's the painful reality. Just take a look at a long-term chart of XRP. Yes, there have been a few spikes above the $1 mark. But there have been long stretches when XRP traded for less than a buck.
In the early years, this was due to a lack of institutional adoption. Big financial institutions and Wall Street banks simply were not using the XRP blockchain ledger, and there wasn't enough demand to push XRP higher.
Later, it was due to a regulatory haze hanging over Ripple, the company behind the XRP token. Back in 2020, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decided that XRP was a security and not a crypto, and that put the kibosh on Ripple's U.S. expansion plans for more than four years.
Image source: Getty Images.
Long story short, it's actually a bit of a novelty that XRP is trading for more than $1 right now. In its entire history, dating back to 2013, XRP has never traded higher than $3.84. And as late as November 2024, XRP was still just a $0.50 crypto.
XRP's massive coin supply
The other factor weighing on XRP right now is its enormous coin supply. The total circulating supply of XRP is 60 billion, and the lifetime maximum supply of XRP is 100 billion. There simply isn't enough scarcity to put upward pressure on the price of XRP. By way of comparison, the total lifetime supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins.
For the sake of argument, let's assume that XRP drops to the $1 mark in 2026. It would still have a market cap of $60 billion. That would still make it the sixth-largest cryptocurrency in the world. XRP would still be bigger than the following top 10 cryptocurrencies: Solana (SOL 1.67%), Cardano (ADA 1.70%), Tron (TRX +0.76%) and Dogecoin (DOGE 1.31%).
In other words, XRP falling in value is a very plausible scenario. For now, I'm convinced that XRP has further to drop in 2026, and that includes a plunge below the $1 mark.
