Novo Nordisk's (NVO 0.29%) shares have lagged the market over the past couple of years. However, the Denmark-based pharmaceutical specialist remains one of the undisputed leaders in the GLP-1 drug market. And analysts predict this niche will grow at a good clip over the next decade.
Could Novo Nordisk ride the GLP-1 wave in the next 10 years and turn $100,000 into $1 million along the way?
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What would it take?
Novo Nordisk should be at the forefront of the GLP-1 boom over the next 10 years. The company's semaglutide, marketed under brands such as Wegovy, Ozempic, and Rybelsus, is one of the best-selling GLP-1 therapies. Novo Nordisk also has several pipeline candidates in this niche that should receive approval soon.
But even assuming near-perfect execution -- and granting that this market will reach the heights Wall Street expects -- the GLP-1 gold rush over the next decade is highly unlikely to lead to the kinds of returns needed to turn $100,000 into $1 million -- that's a 25.89% compound annual growth rate, something very few companies can achieve over long periods, even if they are performing well.
What's more, Novo Nordisk isn't exactly in the best of shape right now. It has been losing ground in the GLP-1 space to its biggest competitor, Eli Lilly. And even its next-gen weight loss medicine, CagriSema, failed to prove as effective in a phase 3 study when pitted against Eli Lilly's Zepbound, so the latter should keep its lead intact. Novo Nordisk's revenue will decline on a year-over-year basis in 2026, based on the company's projections.
NYSE: NVO
Key Data Points
The pharmaceutical leader could bounce back. It has a deep pipeline, the cash to pursue shrewd licensing deals and acquisitions to bolster it, and proven expertise in developing GLP-1 products. And although CagriSema did not match Zepbound, it still showed strong weight-loss results. Even so, more competition will likely mean less clinical differentiation and lower pricing power for the company -- something that will limit its upside. So, it's not realistic to expect Novo Nordisk to achieve the $100,000 to $1 million goal (or anything close) in the next decade.
Is the stock a buy?
Novo Nordisk has been a leader in the diabetes drug market for decades. The company is likely to remain so, and that's an area where there is still plenty of work to be done.
Novo Nordisk has also been looking to diversify its lineup, something it should gradually succeed in over the next five to 10 years. The stock might be struggling right now, but after the beating it took in recent years, it might be worth investing in, given its leadership in diabetes and weight loss and its deep pipeline. And for investors willing to hold the stock for a long time, the dividend can help boost returns over the decade and beyond.
