Microsoft is currently the world's fourth-largest company by market capitalization, with a market cap of $2.9 trillion. However, I think two companies with smaller market caps look poised to surpass it over the next decade.
NASDAQ: MSFT
Key Data Points
While Microsoft has a strong cloud computing unit and is a leader in enterprise software, where enterprise software shakes out in the age of artificial intelligence (AI) is still a big unknown. Let's look at two companies that can grow to become bigger than Microsoft.
1. Amazon
With a market cap of $2.3 billion, Amazon (AMZN 1.44%) is the world's fifth-largest company. Like Microsoft, it owns a fast-growing cloud computing unit. However, Amazon Web Services (AWS) is actually the market share leader, and I think the company has an advantage over Microsoft's Azure through its custom AI chips. While Microsoft is looking to develop its own custom chips, it is behind Amazon, which already has built a massive data center for Anthropic using its Trainium chips. That gives it a cost advantage, and Amazon has talked about using this cost advantage to start to really go after developing its own world-class foundational AI model.
NASDAQ: AMZN
Key Data Points
Meanwhile, the company's e-commerce business is seeing huge benefits from both AI and robotics, driving efficiencies and creating huge operating leverage. Amazon is also uniquely positioned in the world of agentic commerce, given the breadth of its platform. As such, I think it will become the larger company over time.
Image source: Getty Images.
2. Meta Platforms
With a market cap of only $1.6 trillion, Meta Platforms (META 2.42%) has a way to go before it catches Microsoft. However, the social media giant looks like one of the best companies to own in the AI era. While Microsoft faces increasing competition with AI assistants and AI agents, Meta has shown it can apply AI to its business to make it grow.
NASDAQ: META
Key Data Points
Meta apps have increasingly become entertainment destinations, and through the use of AI, the company has improved its recommendation algorithm to keep users on its sites longer. This, in turn, lets it serve more ads. At the same time, it has developed AI creative, automation, and bidding tools to let its ad customers create improved campaigns and to better target users. This is leading to more effective ads and thus higher prices.
This could be seen last quarter, when Meta saw an 18% increase in ad impressions and a 6% increase in price. Its overall revenue growth came in at a robust 24%, and that is only expected to accelerate in Q1 2026. With the company now just starting to serve ads on its WhatsApp and Threads platforms, Meta has a long runway for growth. And with better long-term growth opportunities than Microsoft, Meta should eventually be able to overtake it in market cap over the next decade.
