Shares of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS +21.44%) have risen 280% over the past year. That's incredible when you compare it to the impressive 37% advance of the S&P 500 index (^GSPC +1.18%) over the same span. It is impossible to ignore a stock advance of that magnitude.
There's just one problem. AST SpaceMobile's shares have lost more than a third of their value since peaking in January. It's hard to ignore that kind of drop, since the stock is now in its own bear market. What is a shareholder to make of the situation?
AST SpaceMobile is making material progress
AST SpaceMobile is building a space-based broadband cellular network. The system works with existing cellphone technology and is generating significant revenue. In 2025, total company revenues totaled $70 million, up from just $4 million in 2024. Service revenues rose to $26.5 million from $3.9 million in the prior year. Service revenues are the most important because they will be the long-term driver of the company's business.
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Notably, AST SpaceMobile is using a partnership approach, selling its services through telecom companies such as AT&T (T 3.96%) and Verizon (VZ 5.11%). So the company has a long list of target customers lined up and waiting. It is an attractive business model, but there's one small problem.
AST SpaceMobile has to launch a lot of satellites
Right now, AST SpaceMobile's primary focus is on building and launching the satellites it needs to support its service. It currently has enough satellites orbiting the Earth to provide limited services. It needs to get a lot more up there before its service is global. In 2026, it expects to launch more satellites every "one to two months."
NASDAQ: ASTS
Key Data Points
In other words, there are still huge costs ahead for the company. It is unlikely to be sustainably profitable anytime soon. The stock price advance is an indication of the excitement around the company's success in creating a service; the sell-off is likely at least partly driven by the realization that AST SpaceMobile still has a lot more spending to do. It is only appropriate for more aggressive growth investors with a long-term focus.
Take some money off the table?
Even after the material drawdown in the shares, you may still have sizable capital gains. In fact, the value of your shares could be double what you paid. If that's the case, it might make sense to take some profits. Perhaps withdrawing what you originally invested. That way, you are playing with house money, which could give you the emotional resilience to stick around for the long-term if the stock continues to fall in the near term.
