Just one week ago, I named Spire Global (SPIR 0.51%) as one of my top three closest-to-bargain-priced space stocks. I pointed out how, even after selling off its marquee holding, its maritime satellite data business, to Kpler last year, Spire was still bringing in $79 million in annual sales and had been pegged by Wall Street analysts for 22% sales growth next year -- and potentially positive profits in 2029.
My timing couldn't possibly have been worse.
Image source: Getty Images.
Timing is everything
Just as my article about Spire was being published, Spire itself was publishing a bit of news of its own. In an 8-K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission -- also published on April 23 -- Spire revealed that the Canadian Public Works and Government Services ministry was terminating "for convenience" a 71.8 million Canadian dollar ($52.7 million) contract it had previously signed with Spire.
Under the terms of the contract, Spire had been hired to design and build 10 CubeSats (a type of small satellite) to form a new "WildFireSat" constellation of satellites to monitor wildfires in Canada for the Canadian Space Agency (CSA). But now it appears that this is not to be -- and that Spire will not, in fact, collect $52.7 million for building the constellation.
NYSE: SPIR
Key Data Points
What it means for Spire
How bad is this news for Spire, exactly? Pretty darn bad.
According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, Spire's total revenue in 2025 was only $71.6 million. The lost CSA contract thus represents approximately nine months' worth of revenue for Spire. Assuming the contract remains terminated, that's going to set back Spire's march toward profitability by nearly a year.
Perhaps as a result of this, no analysts polled by S&P Global currently predict Spire turning profitable for years.
Admittedly, not all hope is lost. In an article on the contract loss this week, website SpaceNews observes that Spire is considering the contract "paused," not canceled outright. And Spire is actively seeking "clarity" from CSA on just exactly what is going on.
Encouragingly, SpaceNews confirms that CSA "remains committed to delivering wildfire monitoring capability from space by 2029." It hasn't lost interest in fighting wildfires. It's just not clear whether it's still interested in collaborating with Spire Global on that mission, whether the problem is finding funds in the budget or something more technical about the solution Spire has proposed.
Hope still lingers. But for the time being, until better news emerges, I'm personally removing Spire Global from my list of potential space stock buys.
