AST SpaceMobile (ASTS +21.47%), a developer of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, went public through a merger with a special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) on April 7, 2021. The combined company's stock started trading at $11.63 on its first day, but it eventually sank to an all-time low of $2.01 on April 2, 2024. Yet today, its stock trades at nearly $70.
AST initially disappointed its investors by delaying its first commercial launches and racking up steep losses. But it bounced back after securing some big telecom deals and finally launching its first satellites. So is AST's high-flying stock still worth buying today?
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Why did AST's stock skyrocket?
AST's LEO satellites transmit 2G, 4G, and 5G cellular signals back to Earth. These satellites help telecom giants like AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone extend their wireless networks to rural areas that terrestrial towers can't reach. The U.S. Missile Defense Agency also recently selected AST as a prime contractor for its Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense (SHIELD) program.
As of this writing, AST has launched seven satellites. In September 2024, the company launched its first five BlueBird (BB) satellites with 693-square-foot arrays. In December 2025, it launched its sixth BB satellite, a larger "Block 2" satellite featuring a 2,400-square-foot array that can process roughly ten times more data. This April, it launched its second BB Block 2 satellite, BlueBird 7, but it was accidentally deployed into an unrecoverable orbit.
NASDAQ: ASTS
Key Data Points
How much higher could AST's stock soar?
AST plans to expand that constellation to 45-60 satellites by the end of 2026, and to 248 satellites over the next few years. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) authorized AST's ambitious long-term plans in late April, clearing the way for it to challenge SpaceX's Starlink, Amazon's Leo, and other early movers in the LEO satellite race.
If AST achieves that expansion, analysts expect its revenue to surge from $71 million in 2025 to $1.86 billion in 2028. They also expect its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to turn positive in 2027 and more than triple to $1.26 billion in 2028.
With a market cap of $18.7 billion, AST doesn't seem expensive at 10x and 14x its 2028 sales and adjusted EBITDA, respectively. Some concerns about future launch delays, failed deployments, or competition from bigger companies are likely compressing its valuations. Still, it could be a bargain at these levels if it achieves its long-term goals. Therefore, I think this space stock is still worth buying if you can ride out the volatility and tune out the near-term noise.
