Oklo (OKLO 2.12%), a developer of nuclear microreactors, went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) two years ago. Its stock started trading at $15.50, reached a record high of $174.14 on Oct. 14, 2025, and now trades at about $77.
Oklo's stock experienced wild swings because it was difficult to value. While its technology seemed promising, it hadn't yet deployed any microreactors or generated meaningful revenue. Instead, it was racking up steep losses and was richly valued relative to its near-term growth. So will Oklo's volatile stock head higher over the next three years, or will it sink much lower?
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What does Oklo do?
The rapid growth of the power-hungry cloud infrastructure, artificial intelligence (AI), and data center markets is driving more countries to restart or expand their nuclear energy plans. However, conventional nuclear reactors are large, expensive, and challenging to build in remote areas. They also usually need to be refueled, in stages, every two years.
NYSE: OKLO
Key Data Points
Oklo addresses those issues with its modular Aurora microreactor, which generates only 1.5 MWe but can be linked to additional microreactors to reach up to 75 MWe. That's a lot smaller than conventional nuclear reactors, which typically generate more than 1,000 MWe, but these smaller, modular plants are much easier to deploy in remote regions.
The Aurora also uses metallic uranium fuel pellets, which offer better thermal resistance and lower fabrication costs than uranium dioxide pellets used in conventional reactors. Oklo also reprocesses and recycles those metallic uranium fuel pellets in a closed loop, enabling them to last for about a decade without refueling.
Last June, the U.S. Department of Defense awarded Oklo a contract to build a Powerhouse reactor (capable of generating up to 75 MWe) for Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska. Last September, it broke ground on its first Powerhouse reactor in Idaho. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) also recently approved the Principal Criteria Design for the Aurora Powerhouse, marking a major milestone toward its first commercial deployments.
Where will Oklo's stock be in three years?
As of this writing, Oklo has a 14 GW pipeline -- which mainly includes its 12 GW deal with the data center builder Switch and a 500 GW deal with the data center giant Equinix (EQIX 2.68%). It expects to start deploying its first commercial reactors in 2027.
Assuming Oklo sticks to that schedule, analysts expect its revenue to surge from $1.1 million in 2027 to $42.5 million in 2028. But with a market cap of $13.8 billion, it's already valued at 326 times its 2028 sales -- so it still looks too hot to handle. Oklo has a bright future, but I believe its overheated stock will either stagnate or sink over the next three years as its business gradually catches up to its valuations.
