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Closing Bell
4:06 pm
April CPI came in hotter than expected at 3.8% annually, driven by a gasoline surge, pushing 10-year Treasury yields to a one-year high of 4.46%. The Nasdaq is taking the worst of it: Stock Advisor (Team HG) rec Intel (INTC 6.82%), Qualcomm (QCOM 11.61%), and Micron (MU 3.75%) are each off 4% or more, while the S&P 500 and Dow are near flat.
- Oil joins the pressure: Brent crude jumped 3.4% to $107.77/barrel as Mideast tensions show no signs of easing, adding to inflation worries.
- Chips led the rally, now lead the retreat: The semiconductor stocks that surged hardest over the past month are absorbing the steepest losses today, a reminder that high-momentum stocks carry high-reversal risk.
UPS: Down 50%, Yield 6.5%. Hmm.
3:44 pm — UPS -1.13%
Amazon (AMZN 1.19%) just announced it’s opening its legendary delivery machine to every business on the planet — and UPS (UPS 1.56%) investors are not thrilled. UPS stock is already down 50%-plus over five years, and now it has a trillion-dollar rival muscling into its lane. "I'm glad I sold all my UPS stock when I retired in 2020," yamablasterx2 wrote last week. Consider this, though: UPS has already been dumping Amazon as a customer to chase better margins. It's hard to lose a customer you were already kicking out.
- The "we broke up first" defense: UPS is slashing 30,000 jobs and tightening its belt — painful, but it’s building a leaner business that doesn’t need Amazon anyway.
- Amazon’s graveyard of grand ambitions: Remember when Amazon was going to conquer groceries? Healthcare? Logistics disruption is real, but Amazon has a habit of making big splashes that take forever to materialize.
NYSE: UPS
Key Data Points
AST SpaceMobile Craters After Earnings Miss
3:11 pm — ASTS -12.37%
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS 11.62%) fell 13% Tuesday after Q1 results that, to put it gently, were not great. Analysts wanted $0.21 in losses per share on $37.5M in revenue. They got $0.66 in losses on $14.7M. The silver lining is that revenue grew 20-fold year over year. The less-silver lining: free cash flow was negative $427.4M.
- Houston, we have a burn rate: AST’s cash bonfire is real, but so is its $3.5B war chest, and the company is racing to get 45 satellites in orbit by year-end after losing one to a botched Blue Origin launch last month.
- Don’t hold your breath: Management declined to promise consumer DTC service anytime soon, which means the part where AST actually makes money remains a future-tense situation.
NASDAQ: ASTS
Key Data Points
One Fund Took Its UNFI Profits and Ran
2:56 pm — UNFI -1.24%
Quantedge Capital just decided 85% was enough. The fund disclosed an SEC filing showing it sold its entire United Natural Foods (UNFI 2.20%) stake in Q1 — roughly 88,000 shares worth an estimated $3.37 million. UNFI has outrun the S&P 500 by nearly 60 percentage points over the past year. Motley Fool analyst Rich Greifner recently wrote, "The company is intentionally sacrificing lower-margin conventional grocery sales to focus on natural, organic, and specialty products, which carry better margins and stronger growth potential.
- The business actually looks pretty good right now: Adjusted EBITDA jumped 23% last quarter, free cash flow hit $243 million, and net leverage fell to 2.7x, the lowest since fiscal 2023. (Net leverage measures how much debt a company carries relative to its earnings; lower is better.)
- Management likes what it sees, too: The company raised full-year profitability guidance even while trimming revenue expectations — prioritizing margin discipline over chasing growth.
NYSE: UNFI
Key Data Points
Android Glitch Crashes Life360’s Party
2:26 pm — LIF -12.82%
Life360 (LIF 10.77%) crushed Q1 estimates — 38% revenue growth, raised guidance, the works — and the market’s response was to knock shares down 11%. The culprit: an Android registration glitch that dinged monthly active user growth. CEO Lauren Antonoff says demand never faded, and the company isn’t sweating the long-term outlook.
- The glass-half-full read: Paying families rose 27%, ad revenue quadrupled to over 10% of sales, and international users grew 26% — that’s a lot of green amid the red.
- Already down 40% this year: At 41 times free cash flow, the market’s expectations are high — but patient Fools may want to keep this one on their radar.
NASDAQ: LIF
Key Data Points
On Holding's Margins Hit Record Highs
1:35 pm -- ONON -2.2%
By Sanmeet Deo
Team Rule Breakers
On Holding (ONON 0.40%) just delivered one of its strongest quarters ever -- and the market's reaction tells you everything about where investor psychology sits today.
Here's what happened. On crossed the CHF 800 million quarterly sales mark for the first time, growing 26.4% at constant currency in Q1 2026. The more important story, though, was profitability. Gross margin surged 430 basis points to a record 64.2% -- achieved despite meaningful U.S. tariff headwinds -- while adjusted EBITDA margin hit 21%, up 450 basis points year-over-year. Average selling prices climbed from roughly $145 to over $170. Asia-Pacific crossed 20% of global sales for the first time, growing 61.4% at constant currency, with China expanding at high double digits and an apparel penetration rate of 30% compared to just 6% companywide. Apparel also exceeded 10% of direct-to-consumer sales for the first time. These are milestones, not noise.
So what does it mean? The margin story is the real headline. Management explicitly called 64.5% the new gross margin baseline -- not a peak -- and raised full-year profitability guidance meaningfully. That reprices On's long-run earnings power. The APAC and apparel momentum together address the two most persistent bear concerns: geographic concentration and category dependency.
Today's Lunchtime News
1:30 pm -- TSLA -4.1%
Tesla (TSLA 2.60%) shares slipped after a five-session run that pushed the stock up nearly 15%, as investors looked ahead to CEO Elon Musk's trip to China with President Trump on Thursday. The visit comes alongside meetings between U.S. and China trade delegations and a separate sit-down with President Xi Jinping that also includes Boeing (BA 0.56%) CEO Kelly Ortberg and Apple (AAPL +0.73%) CEO Tim Cook.
- FSD approval is the prize: The main point of negotiation for Tesla is regulatory approval of its full self-driving (FSD) software in mainland China. Musk previously targeted February or early spring, then pushed the timeline to the third quarter on the Q1 call. Chinese regulators have grown more cautious after Baidu (BIDU 4.01%) autonomous vehicles reportedly stopped mid-street, leading to a pause on autonomous vehicle licenses.
- China competition heats up: Tesla sold 25,956 vehicles in China in April, down nearly 10% year over year, with its share of the new-energy vehicle market slipping to 3%. Local rivals BYD (BYDDY 2.00%), Xiaomi (OTC: XIACY), and Geely (GELYF 0.10%) are pressuring Tesla, though FSD approval would be a major competitive edge.
NASDAQ: TSLA
Key Data Points
Warsh Clears Vital Senate Vote
12:40 pm
The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as a Federal Reserve governor Tuesday in a 51-45 vote, clearing the path for him to be named Chair on Wednesday. Warsh succeeds Jerome Powell, who exits Friday as inflation hits a three-year high driven by the Iran war and new tariffs. While Warsh has advocated for "regime change" and signaled that interest rates could be lower, he takes the helm of the central bank during a period of intense price pressure. Though Powell will remain on the board until 2028 to oversee an internal probe, Warsh’s leadership represents a potential pivot in monetary policy that could shift the outlook for dividend-paying giants like Coca-Cola (KO +1.82%) and high-growth tech leaders such as Microsoft (MSFT 1.21%).
- Divergent Rate Expectations: Despite Warsh’s public preference for cheaper capital, bond markets are currently pricing in elevated odds of a rate hike to combat energy-driven costs.
- A Fragile Equilibrium: The incoming Chair must navigate a "low-hire, low-fire" labor market, attempting to preserve employment stability without fueling the inflation currently hitting companies like Walmart (WMT +2.25%).
Wegovy High-Dose Data Challenges Lilly
11:20 am -- NVO -0.4%
Novo Nordisk (NVO +1.25%) released clinical data Tuesday showing its 7.2-milligram high-dose Wegovy enabled "early responders" to lose an average of 27.7% of their body weight over 72 weeks. This analysis, presented at the European Congress on Obesity, aims to neutralize the efficacy advantage held by Eli Lilly (LLY +2.37%) and its rival drug Zepbound. While the broader trial group averaged 21% weight loss, the performance of these rapid responders — about one in four patients — provides a potent marketing tool as Novo fights to win back market share. Three major U.S. pharmacy benefit managers have already added the higher dose to standard formularies, accelerating the rollout of this competitive extension.
- Competitive Parity: The data suggests Wegovy can finally match or exceed the 20% efficacy threshold that previously made Lilly the preferred choice for many prescribers.
- Variable Outcomes: Success remains non-linear; patients who failed to lose 15% within the first six months averaged a lower 15.4% total loss, highlighting the "early responder" delta.
Hims Takes the Pain, Builds the Moat
11:15 am -- HIMS -12.4%
By Sanmeet Deo
Team Rule Breakers
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS 14.10%) just delivered its worst GAAP quarter since going public, and the market is punishing it accordingly -- shares are down roughly 12% today. Revenue grew just 4% year-over-year to $608 million, a brutal deceleration from 111% growth a year ago, while a net loss of $92 million erased all the hard-won profitability the company had built. The immediate pain comes from Q2 EBITDA guidance actually lower than what was just reported, with gross margins guided to compress further still. Investors who chased the stock up 50% in the prior month are getting a cold shower instead.
The so-what is that almost all of this damage was deliberate. Hims walked away from its compounded semaglutide business overnight and relaunched with branded Wegovy and Zepbound. Within six weeks, 125,000+ shipments were fulfilled and the company is tracking to add over 100,000 new weight-loss subscribers per month, demand the CFO said exceeded even the Super Bowl campaigns. Full-year revenue guidance was raised to $2.8–$3.0 billion, and the CFO stated branded and compounded unit economics are "roughly comparable" on a dollar basis, meaning this is a timing problem, not permanent margin destruction.
Amazon Starts 30-Minute Drops
10:15 am -- AMZN -1.5%
Amazon (AMZN 1.19%) is launching "Amazon Now," a service delivering packages in 30 minutes or less across dozens of U.S. cities. Utilizing a network of micro-fulfillment "dark stores" and Flex drivers, the retail giant aims to reach tens of millions of customers by year-end. This aggressive move directly challenges gig-economy rivals like DoorDash (DASH 1.35%) and Uber (UBER +0.51%) by offering 24/7 access to everything from electronics to groceries. CEO Andy Jassy maintains that ultra-fast speeds drive higher conversion and customer retention, effectively turning logistics into a competitive weapon against brick-and-mortar leader Walmart (WMT +2.25%).
- Dark Store Strategy: By shifting inventory to 5,000-square-foot urban hubs rather than highway warehouses, Amazon minimizes the "last mile" to minutes rather than hours.
- Fee Structure Shifts: Prime members will pay a $3.99 premium for the lightning-speed service, creating a high-margin revenue stream that offsets the increased cost of rapid, on-demand logistics.
NASDAQ: AMZN
Key Data Points
Hims & Hers Stock Plummets on Widening Loss
10:10 am -- HIMS -9.9%
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS 14.10%) shares tanked by up to 15% Tuesday as the telehealth firm’s first-quarter net loss nearly doubled to $92 million. While revenue nudged up 4% to $608 million, investors were spooked by a significant drop in adjusted EBITDA and a lowered outlook. The company is navigating a painful transition after settling with Novo Nordisk (NVO +1.25%) to stop selling cheap, compounded versions of weight-loss drugs like Wegovy. Under the new pact, Hims will sell branded GLP-1s but must cease the "mass compounding" that previously fueled its margins. With revenue per subscriber slipping to $80, the firm faces a steep uphill climb to prove its business model works without patented shortcuts.
- Shortage Loophole Closes: Hims previously exploited a regulatory loophole allowing non-patent holders to sell drugs during shortages, but the resolution of GLP-1 supply issues has rendered this strategy obsolete.
- Safety First, Profits Second: Novo Nordisk’s legal pressure forced Hims to pull its $49 "copycat" pills, a move that clarifies the company's regulatory risk but leaves a $350 million EBITDA goal looking increasingly ambitious.
Opening Bell
9:35 am -- MU -4.5%, AMD -1.3%, QCOM -5.7%
The S&P 500 pulled back from record highs Tuesday after April’s Consumer Price Index hit 3.8%, its highest annual level since 2023. This hotter-than-expected data, driven by West Texas Intermediate futures surging past $100, sparked a sell-off in high-flying tech names. Micron Technology (MU 3.75%) reversed its recent 37% weekly surge with a 4% drop, dragging peers Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 2.27%) and Qualcomm (QCOM 11.61%) lower. With President Trump declaring the U.S.-Iran ceasefire on "massive life support," investors are bracing for a persistent energy-driven inflation story that could dominate the remainder of the year.
- Geopolitical Premium Returns: Crude prices are pricing in a collapse of diplomatic talks after Tehran demanded full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and billions in war reparations.
- Structural Inflation Risks: Analysts warn that two consecutive readings above 3% suggest price pressures are becoming entrenched, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive rates longer than anticipated.
Market indexes
Zebra Technologies Rides Automation Tailwinds
9:10 am -- ZBRA +13.5% in pre-market trading
By Jason Moser
Team Rule Breakers
Zebra Technologies (ZBRA +11.46%) reported encouraging first-quarter results with a 14.3% increase in net sales and non-GAAP earnings of $4.75 up better than 18%. The company demonstrated robust demand across both its Connected Frontline and Asset Visibility & Automation segments with segment sales up 21% and 7% respectively and there's no doubt the market is pleased with the fact that leadership raised guidance across the board. Zebra continues to benefit from tailwinds in e-commerce, automation, and physical AI, and we don't see those trends slowing down anytime soon.
GameStop's $56B eBay Bid 'Lacks Credibility'
8:30 am -- EBAY -0.95%, GME -2.37% in pre-market trading
eBay (EBAY +2.13%) has officially rejected a $56 billion unsolicited takeover bid from GameStop (GME 3.45%), dismissing the proposal as "neither credible nor attractive." The eBay board cited deep concerns over a massive funding gap and the high debt load required for the $125-per-share cash-and-stock deal. Despite CEO Ryan Cohen's $20 billion financing commitment from TD Bank (TD +0.63%) and a plan to use retail stores as fulfillment hubs, eBay leadership expressed full confidence in its current turnaround strategy under Jamie Iannone. The rejection follows a combative week of social media antics from Cohen, who even saw his personal eBay account suspended during the pursuit.
- Financing Under Fire: Critics note that GameStop's $10 billion market cap makes acquiring a $48 billion giant nearly impossible without extreme equity dilution or "distressed-level" leverage.
- The Synergistic Stretch: While Cohen eyes live commerce and local authentication hubs, eBay's board countered that its focus on luxury goods and trading cards is already delivering superior shareholder returns.
NASDAQ: EBAY
Key Data Points
This Morning's Breakfast News
7:30 am -- ONON +5.49% in pre-market trading
On Holding (ONON 0.40%) rose over 5% ahead of the opening bell after results showed record net sales and profitability, driven by a 44.4% revenue growth in the APAC region versus the previous year, as well as lifting its full-year profit outlook.
- "Q1 was an outstanding start to the year and another strong proof point of our premium strategy in action": Casper Coppetti, founder and co-CEO, noted the push to being a premium brand, with the Stock Advisor recommendation by Team Rule Breakers projecting an impressive 64.5% gross profit margin by year end.
- "The business is doing fine": In late March, TMF chief investment officer Andy Cross explained, "even though they continue to put up some good numbers, they have some of the bigger headwinds from spending and tariffs and margins," but flagged the business had been "a long-term performer."
ICYMI: Monday's Scoreboard
6:45 am -- WSM +0.46% in pre-market trading
Williams-Sonoma (WSM 0.40%) was the subject of the latest Scoreboard video.
Sony's $4B Acquisition Signals Music IP Shift
6:00 am -- SONY +3.15%, BX -0.16% in pre-market trading
Sony Group (SONY +4.09%) has struck a massive $4 billion deal to acquire Recognition Music Group's catalog from Blackstone (BX +1.12%), securing the rights to over 45,000 iconic tracks. The acquisition, made through a joint venture with Singapore's GIC, includes legendary hits such as Leonard Cohen's "Hallelujah" and Journey's "Don't Stop Believin'," cementing Sony's position as a dominant force in the music intellectual property market. This exit follows Blackstone's 2024 takeover of Hipgnosis Songs Fund and marks a high-water point for music rights as an institutional asset class. As streaming continues to favor "legacy" catalogs with enduring replay value, Sony's aggressive deal-making highlights a strategic pivot toward owning evergreen content that provides stable, long-term cash flows.
- Institutionalizing the Hits: This transaction validates music rights as a mainstream financial asset, offering Sony a high-margin revenue stream that remains resilient regardless of broader economic cycles.
- Streaming's Golden Oldies: With mature demographics driving consumption on major platforms, owning timeless classics allows Sony to capture a disproportionate share of global streaming royalties compared to riskier new releases.
NYSE: SONY
Key Data Points
Markel's Buyback Enough Without Spinoff
5:15 am -- MKL +0.18% in pre-market trading
By Buck Hartzell
Jana Partners has asked Markel's (MKL 0.19%) Board to spin off their Ventures businesses and do a tender offer for $2 billion worth of shares. Jana first voiced this back in 2024. While I agree that Markel is undervalued, Jana's requests are pure financial engineering. The reasons for Markel's underperformance are largely gone now (reinsurance, Poor Catco acquisition, and underinvestment in technology). Markel reduced their shares by about 10% over the past 5 years. The pace of repurchases will likely pick-up from here. That's enough for me but activists aren't often in it for the long haul.
NYSE: MKL
Key Data Points
Microsoft Caps OpenAI Payments Through 2030
5:00 am -- MSFT -0.41% in pre-market trading
The Information reports Microsoft (MSFT 1.21%) and OpenAI have agreed to cap revenue-sharing payments at $38 billion as details emerge of the renegotiated contract from last month, allowing OpenAI to have a stronger pitch to take on new investors.
- Revenue-sharing will continue through to 2030: Even though the contract obligates payments for the coming years, the cap makes OpenAI more attractive when considering an IPO later this year, as it puts the company more in control of its finances.
- "It has worked out well because we took the risk": Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said he was proud of the early investment in the business, with the initial $13 billion stake estimated to be worth $92 billion.
NASDAQ: MSFT
Key Data Points
Beazer Board Faces $25.75 Dream Finders Bid
4:30 am -- DFH -2.20%, BZH -2.53% in pre-market trading
By Buck Hartzell
Dream Finders Homes (DFH 13.37%) went public with their offer to purchase Beazer Homes (BZH 7.27%) for $25.75 per share in cash. This was a 40% premium to Beazer's current share price. Dream Finder's Founder and CEO Patrick Zalupski called out Beazer's suboptimal capital allocation strategy and lack of scale as solid reasons for the deal. DFH has proven to be a good home for the businesses they acquire. Dream Finders' asset light business model is built for the real estate cycles. The pressure is now on Beazer's board to respond to this very solid offer.
NYSE: DFH
Key Data Points
Before the Opening Bell
4:00 am
Stock futures are edging lower as Wall Street braces for April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, set against the backdrop of crumbling peace hopes in the Middle East. President Trump recently declared the U.S.-Iran ceasefire on "massive life support" after rejecting Tehran's latest proposal, a move that threatens to keep energy-driven inflation sticky. Economists expect headline CPI to land at 3.7%, a figure that will weigh heavily on the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. Despite the geopolitical friction, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs Monday, buoyed by semiconductor strength and optimism surrounding the President's high-stakes state visit to China today. Trump is joined by a powerhouse delegation, including Tesla (TSLA 2.60%) CEO Elon Musk and Apple (AAPL +0.73%) chief Tim Cook, to negotiate new trade and AI frameworks.
- The China "Mega-Mission": The presence of executives from BlackRock (BLK +1.09%) and Goldman Sachs (GS +0.22%) suggests the trip aims to reopen Chinese capital markets and secure high-performance computing supply chains amid ongoing U.S. technology restrictions.
- Stagflationary Shadows: While the labor market added a surprising 115,000 jobs in April, a 3.7% inflation print would likely force the Fed to maintain a "higher-for-longer" stance, delaying any potential rate cuts.
