When most people think of Adobe
Wall Street Wisdom:
- General consensus. Of the 21 analysts tracking Adobe, a full dozen rate the stock a buy. Eight more give it a hold rating, and only one says the stock is a sell.
- Revenues. Analysts expect the company to report a 38% rise in quarterly revenue tomorrow, to $650.3 million. Much of this growth, one would think, derives from Adobe's acquisition of Macromedia, which was completed in December 2005.
- Earnings. Per-share profits, however, are expected to rise by only 7%, to $0.29 per share.
Margin watch:
Fools drool over Adobe's margins. With a gross margin consistently in the 90s, operating margins in the mid-30s (and improving), and net margins in the upper 20s (also improving, and breaking the 30% barrier on a rolling basis just last quarter), this company is practically printing money.
Margins % |
9/04 |
12/04 |
3/05 |
6/05 |
9/05 |
12/05 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross |
93.7 |
93.7 |
93.8 |
94 |
94.1 |
94.3 |
Op. |
35.1 |
35.5 |
34.9 |
35.5 |
36.2 |
37 |
Net |
26.3 |
27 |
27.9 |
28.8 |
29.7 |
30.7 |
Foolish lookout:
Or at least it was, until this quarter. There are several things you need to keep in mind if you're to make sense of tomorrow's numbers -- and the market's reaction thereto -- and all of them are related to the Macromedia acquisition:
- First, profits. The $0.29 that analysts are looking for is a "non-GAAP" number, excluding certain costs, chief among which will be costs and non-cash charges related to buying Macromedia. Under generally accepted accounting principles, Adobe itself expects to earn only $0.13 to $0.16 per share.
- Likewise with margins. Non-GAAP, Adobe's looking to post a 35% or 36% operating margin. Under GAAP, the operating margin should fall below 20%.
- Adobe's per-share earnings will decline substantially as a result of share dilution. Shares outstanding are expected to rise from about 486 million last year, to about 618 million tomorrow.
Competitors:
Adobe runs with the big dogs. Its chief competitors are Apple
Fool contributorRich Smithhas no interest, short or long, in any company named above.