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More Market Love for ADM

By Stephen D. Simpson, Simpson, – Updated Nov 15, 2016 at 6:33PM

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At this price, Archer Daniels Midland had better be the Exxon of ethanol.

If any company were primed to be the ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) of ethanol, it would have to be Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE:ADM). And at today's prices, if it doesn't reach that lofty goal, there might be some disappointed speculators.

Results were certainly better at this large agricultural processor -- and ironically enough, ethanol had little to do with it. Sales climbed 8% overall, but segment operating profits were up 46% on pronounced strength in the oilseeds processing business.

Speaking of those segments, the oilseeds business saw operating profits nearly triple on what the company modestly called "improved global conditions." It looks as though global demand for biodiesel might start pushing up the price of seed oils (not unlike what has happened to the price of sugar as countries like Brazil turn more sugarcane into ethanol instead of sugar).

On the corn side, overall operating profit was up 23%, but the sweeteners and starch business (up 42%) drove the bus, not the bioproducts side (up 8%). Like fellow sweetener oligopolists Corn Products (NYSE:CPO), Cargill, and Tate & Lyle (NASDAQ:TATYY.PK), ADM is benefiting from the high price of sugar and pricing leverage in the market. And while ethanol sales volumes were down, a supply issue (a drawdown of stocks), not a demand issue, caused the drop.

I'll say this much for ADM and its ethanol future: It's got a lot of production that isn't yet under contract, and prices are firm -- and likely to stay so, if the government doesn't alter the subsidies or import tariffs. What's more, the company's new CEO is a veteran of Chevron's (NYSE:CVX) downstream business. That's a highly relevant skillset, if the production of biodiesel and ethanol is to become a bigger part of ADM's future.

I've been skeptical on ADM shares as an investment, and I've taken a beating for it -- thankfully, more in my ego than my wallet. I'm willing to admit that even if a chunk of the share appreciation is due to ethanol hoopla (as opposed to solid improvements in sweeteners and oilseeds), "up" is still up. I'm not sure that today's levels spell long-term value, but I've been so wrong so long that I'm not about to put my money where my mouth is, either short or long, on these shares.

Fuel up with further Foolishness:

Fool contributor Stephen Simpson has no financial interest in any stocks mentioned (that means he's neither long nor short the shares).

None

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Stocks Mentioned

Chevron Corporation Stock Quote
Chevron Corporation
CVX
$144.77 (-6.53%) $-10.12
Exxon Mobil Corporation Stock Quote
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM
$85.75 (-5.32%) $-4.82
Ingredion Incorporated Stock Quote
Ingredion Incorporated
INGR
$80.10 (-2.54%) $-2.09
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Stock Quote
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
ADM
$81.65 (-5.13%) $-4.42

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

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