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Fashion statements. It isn't easy to make one, and fickle consumers move quickly from one fad to another. Even the hottest blasts from the past are laid to rest after a short comeback. And making a successful comeback isn't easy -- in fact, it's nearly impossible.
Move over, Gap; your time is up
But someone apparently needs to relay that message to Gap
Joining the likes of leg warmers, shoulder pads, and bellbottoms, however, the “Gap look” days have expired. Trendier rivals like The Buckle
Don't fall into the value gap
Arguably, from a quantitative perspective, Gap's clean balance sheet and forward P/E multiple less than 12, makes it a compelling value play if the brand could eventually be revitalized. The problem is, I'm not convinced a rejuvenation of Gap is even possible.
For starters, the company's leaders lack a strong understanding of the fashion world. Its CEO of five years, Paul Pressler (who had no previous retail experience), was fired last year after proving that fixing Gap wasn't his forte. Glen Murphy, who stepped in to fill the role, also has no experience selling clothes. How an ailing retailer believes it can turn itself around with leaders that have no fashion savvy is beyond me.
Of course, this problem might just explain why Gap lacks focus on knowing its target customer. Management doesn't seem to know who its audience is, let alone know how to please it. These days, specialty retailers like Zumiez
This point has been evident more than ever this year at the company's Old Navy stores. The concept, which has actually grown larger than Gap's flagship brand, has seen its same store sales drop jaw-dropping amounts the past several months. In March and May of this year, comps plummeted 27% and 25% respectively as customers complained the stores neglected its core shopper by transitioning its focus on more youthful style.
Patience is a virtue, but for only so long
Gap isn't going anywhere. It's one of the largest specialty retailers as its market cap trounces any of its nearest competitors and it isn't going to disappear anytime soon. But that's just it: The company really isn't going anywhere. The business has proven stagnant over the last several years, with management failing at every attempt to stimulate sales. I see little upside potential for the stock and think betting on its ability to make its way back into the closets of trendsetters is a big gamble.
While it's easy to get sidetracked by its healthy financials and cheap stock price, analyzing the company from a qualitative view makes Gap seem wildly unattractive. Gap's heyday years are over and investors' capital that is tied up in this never-ending turnaround project will be much better served looking elsewhere -- the slumped market has left loads of retailers selling at some of the best values we've seen in decades. American Eagle
The CAPS community looks like it concurs, as Gap is rated just one star out of five, while American Eagle still soars at four stars. What do you think? If you're tossing Gap out of your closet, come on over to CAPS and rate this stock to "underperform."
