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Peet's Serves a Tepid Cup

By Alyce Lomax – Updated Apr 5, 2017 at 8:25PM

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Enjoy the coffee, not the stock.

Many caffeinated coffee stocks have had a hard time lately, and third-quarter results from Peet's Coffee & Tea (NASDAQ:PEET) didn't give investors much reason to pour themselves a generous cup of the company's shares.

Granted, net income did increase by 9.9% to $2 million, or $0.15 per share. Net revenue increased 12.5% to $68.5 million. Peet's reaffirmed its guidance for this year, calling for $0.77 per share to $0.82 per share in earnings, and said that in 2009, earnings will increase 20% to 25%. In the current climate, these aren't exactly terrible tidings.

Still, this quarter is a far cry from Peet's second-quarter results, when it reported a 66.7% increase in net income; the stock surged on those results. Of course, let's face another fact: Peet's is arguably a premium-priced stock compared to rivals and to many stocks overall, trading at 28 times its trailing earnings. When you can purchase stock of high-quality companies like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) or Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) for far cheaper multiples (price-to-earnings ratios of 20 and 18, respectively), why choose a stock like Peet's, particularly since it faces plenty of competition along with a slow consumer environment?

Rival Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) may have recently reported its first-ever quarterly loss, but it's fallen to bargain territory, trading at just 17 times earnings, far lower than its historical P/E and that of Peet's and other rivals. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ:GMCR), while successful, is perhaps super-premium in the space, given its P/E of 37 (even with the stock's recent drop). And of course, coffee laggard Caribou (NASDAQ:CBOU) has been struggling to be profitable at all, so I continue to believe investors shouldn't even think about that one; it's no time for dicey turnaround plays.

Last but not least, competition should intensify for the fewer dollars consumers are willing to spend. As much as many folks are very down on Starbucks, I think it's a major mistake to underestimate its chances at a comeback.

Last quarter, I admitted Peet's has got some nice attributes, such as ample room for growth; and of course, that quarter was impressive. However, I also cautioned that it would probably be better for investors to wait for cheaper levels to pour themselves some Peet's shares. Peet's is better on a watch list than in a portfolio.  

Related Foolishness:

Starbucks, Netflix, and Apple are Motley Fool Stock Advisor picks. Starbucks is a Motley Fool Inside Value pick. The Fool owns shares of Starbucks. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days.

Alyce Lomax owns shares of Starbucks. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Stocks Mentioned

Netflix, Inc. Stock Quote
Netflix, Inc.
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Starbucks Corporation Stock Quote
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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Stock Quote
Keurig Green Mountain, Inc.
GMCR.DL

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