Force Protection (NASDAQ:FRPT) reported second-quarter earnings yesterday evening, and I won't sugarcoat this, folks -- the news wasn't good.
Sales for the quarter dropped 5% in comparison to last year's Q2 after netting out revenues "passed through" to General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) last year. The drop was a steeper 45% when not netting out "pass-through" sales, although the revenue from "pass-through" sales resulted in zero gross margin, so maybe the 5% drop is the fairest comparison.
Either way you look at it, though, profits fared worse, falling more than 90% to just a penny a share. Naturally, investors are taking out their wrath on the stock this morning, with shares down nearly 15% as of this writing. Given the magnitude of the miss, and the huge discount to where these shares were trading as recently as yesterday, it behooves a Fool to ask two questions:
Is this company doomed?
Short answer: No.
Now, I understand that there are plenty of reasons to argue the "yes" side of the proposition. Force practically invented the concept of the MRAP in 2006 -- but before it could capitalize on the concept, Navistar (NYSE:NAV), BAE Systems, and General Dynamics beat it up, stole its lunch money ... and its MRAP contracts.
A couple years later, Force proffered its Cheetah lite MRAP to become the Army's 21st Century Humvee -- and was laughed out of the competition. Again, all the above-named players got a piece of the pie (and Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) as well). Fast-forward one more year, and we saw Force give its Cheetah a (proverbial) tire rotation and a new paint job before offering it in the M-ATV competition -- which Force once again promptly lost, this time to Oshkosh (NYSE:OSK). And yet, I'm still bullish on the stock.
I'll bite. Why?
I know, it doesn't make a lot of sense. This company is far from a dominant force in the defense sector. It's outgunned and outclassed in contending with the industry's heavyweights. Yet somehow, some way, this company manages to live and fight another day -- every single time.
Despite losing practically every contest it's ever entered, Force still managed to book $372 million in sales so far this year, and generate $13 million in free cash flow. Last month, Force landed a $56 million contract to upgrade its Cougar fleet, then nabbed a $53 million deal to build Buffalo MRAPs for the Army a week later. Somehow, the revenues just keep rolling in.
Foolish takeaway
Don't ask me how Force does it. They just do. Like the armored vehicles it builds, this company seems unkillable. But at a price-to-sales ratio of 0.3 (cheaper than former FCS contractor Boeing (NYSE:BA) about the same valuation as Textron (NYSE:TXT), but without all the debt), the price is to die for.
Victory through superior defense investing:
