In the comics, Iron Man, Thor, and The Hulk were always the mightiest among Earth's Mightiest Heroes. Turns out that's also true at theaters. With a $75.2 million overseas open, Captain America: The Winter Soldier box office is (so far) the worst of Marvel's Phase 2 peers:
International opening |
$198.4 million |
$109.4 million |
$75.2 million |
No. of territories |
42 |
36 |
32 |
Opening date |
April 24, 2013 |
Oct. 30, 2013 |
March 26, 2014 |
Yet that's not as bad as it sounds for Marvel or Walt Disney (DIS -0.32%) investors. Why? Iron Man 3 opened in late April-early May 2013 while Thor: The Dark World opened Halloween weekend. Both are notoriously strong seasons for action adventure films.
But don't take my word for it. Here's a closer look at April versus May and November, according to data supplied by Box Office Mojo:
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April 3-year average gross = $640.03 million
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May 3-year average gross = $1,278.53 million
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November 3-year average gross = $1,346.60 million
To be fair, these figures are for domestic rather foreign box office performance. And yet the broader point is that April is traditionally a tough month for big-ticket action flicks. Recent history says the Captain America: The Winter Soldier box office should find it difficult to produce half the haul of Iron Man 3 or even get within spitting distance of Thor: The Dark World.
As it stands now, Cap's latest adventure is already tracking to earn 38% of what the Iron Man threequel did and 69% of The Dark World's haul while opening in fewer territories. In each case, current figures say Disney investors can expect theatergoers to spend at least $440 million worldwide at the Captain America: The Winter Soldier box office -- with upside to $600 million or more if the movie earns a coveted 'A' CinemaScore.
Do you agree? Are you planning on seeing the movie when it opens in U.S. theaters this weekend? Please make your prediction for the Captain America: The Winter Soldier box office in the comments below, and also let us know if you would buy, sell, or short Disney stock at current prices.