Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Tempur Sealy (NYSE:TPX) are trading roughly 10% lower as of 3:30 p.m. today, despite the bedding company beating Wall Street's expectations with its fourth-quarter earnings report, as a result of weak guidance for its 2015 fiscal year.
So what: Tempur Sealy earned $745.5 million in fourth-quarter revenue, topping Wall Street's expectations for $741.5 million on the top line. The company's adjusted earnings of $0.86 per share also topped Wall Street's EPS consensus of $0.84. However, Tempur Sealy now expects to earn anywhere from $2.70 to $3.10 in adjusted EPS on sales of $3.05 billion to $3.15 billion for its 2015 fiscal year. Both guidance ranges fall well below what analysts had expected, as the consensus was for $3.17 billion in full-year sales and $3.34 in adjusted EPS.
Now what: Tempur Sealy's bottom-line guidance works out to growth in the range of 2% to 17% over 2014's $2.65 in full-year adjusted EPS. That's a rather wide range of possible outcomes, and it appears that Tempur Sealy expects to lose $0.27 in EPS to unfavorable currency exchange rates. Without that impact, the midpoint of Tempur Sealy's EPS guidance would be $3.17, which would have worked out to a 20% year-over-year growth rate on the bottom-line.
As it stands, the actual midpoint of $2.90 per share works out to an adjusted P/E ratio of 18.4 after today's drop. Tempur Sealy's price-to-free-cash-flow ratio now stands at 17 after today's drop. Both of these metrics are now retracing levels last seen in early 2013. With modest growth on the horizon, it might be worth adding this stock to your watch list as a potential rebound candidate for 2015 now that it's crashed to a 10% loss for the year to date.