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Why inContact, Inc. Stock Fell 28% Friday

By Anders Bylund – Aug 7, 2015 at 5:28PM

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This could very well be a temporary drop based on nothing worse than lumpy quarter-to-quarter order flows.

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of inContact (NASDAQ: SAAS) lost 28% of their value on Friday. The company, which provides call center and network connectivity services from an Internet-based platform, reported second-quarter results on Thursday night that weren't at all to the liking of investors and analysts.

So what: InContact saw second-quarter sales rising 29% year over year to $53.1 million, topping analyst estimates by $1.9 million. However, the company also reported an adjusted net loss of $0.12 per share, down from $0.07 profit per share in the year-ago quarter and below the analyst consensus for a $0.11 loss per share. This was inContact's first earnings miss since the fourth quarter of 2013, but the company has fallen short of the Street's revenue projections on several occasion in that span.

Now what: Order bookings increased a modest 3% from year-ago levels. The large gap between inContact's sales growth and order bookings underscores the uneven nature of this micro-cap's operations. It only takes a couple of missing orders or unexpected wins to change one quarter's results dramatically, and it's hard to hold a small company like this to strict guidance figures or third-party estimates.

For that reason, it may be useful to look at the company's sales trends in a longer perspective, such as a five-year chart of trailing-12-month sales:

SAAS Chart

SAAS data by YCharts

I included share price movements in the same chart to illustrate how long-term sales growth tends to match up with share gains for this company. In this case, inContact simply met Wall Street's revenue targets, but proceeded to raise full-year sales guidance. The new target range sits just above current analyst projections.

Management sounded confident that these new targets will be met -- some of the expected deals have already closed and are only waiting for a final invoice. "The Q3 sales pipeline is strong with several major deals already closed, and we continue to have a lead advantage against competitors," said inContact CEO Paul Jarman in a prepared press statement.

From that perspective, the stock seems spring-loaded for a strong bounce when those pre-signed sales and other business drivers materialize. This could be a great buy-in opportunity, as long as you're comfortable owning an unpredictable stock tied to rising but lumpy business results.

Anders Bylund has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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