What: Shares of Tuesday Morning Corporation (NASDAQ:TUES) rose as much as 11% early Tuesday, then settled to trade up around 9.5% as of 1 p.m. after an encouraging analyst upgrade.
So what: Keep in mind Tuesday Morning Corp. stock plummeted 36% last Friday, after the discount retailer revealed weaker-than-expected fiscal-fourth-quarter 2015 results. Quarterly revenue climbed 0.2% year over year to $213 million, which translated to a loss of $0.10 per diluted share. Analysts, on average, were anticipating a loss of only $0.02 per share.
But according to Stifel analyst Taylor LaBarr today, Tuesday Morning's subsequent 36% drop was likely an overreaction to what the market views as a "broken turnaround story," and insisted the company's turnaround appears to remain intact for investors with a long-term time frame. With the caveat that fiscal 2016 should be a "peak investment year" for the company with free cash flow starting in fiscal 2017, LaBarr upgraded Tuesday Morning stock from "hold" to "buy" and assigned a per-share price target of $9.
Now what: While I'll admit Tuesday Morning's massive drop last week was almost certainly overblown, I also can't blame investors for their pessimism given the combination of Tuesday Morning's ongoing losses and recent management turnover. Remember, the company only just appointed a new chief operating officer in April, and announced the resignation of its chief financial officer -- who is pursuing "other professional opportunities" -- less than two months ago. Until Tuesday morning shows a more tangible demonstration of its ability to maintain consistent profits over the long term, I'm content watching its progress from the sidelines for now.