2030 forecast
The long-term outlook for Netflix's stock price is largely bound to what shareholders think about the new WBD deal, as well as the implementation of assets from that deal. It's impossible to predict how that will go, but Netflix has done well at squeezing value out of its assets so far, which makes me think the long-term prospects for stock prices are solid.
That being said, CoinCodex has priced some pretty major drops between now and 2030, with a forecast average annualized price of $47.29 for that year. This site is often very conservative in long-term forecasts, so take that as you will.
Key drivers of Netflix stock performance
Netflix has long been a victim of valuations based more on its function as a technology company than that of a television subscription service. That way of thinking about the company has led to some pretty drastic highs and lows. However, with more competitors in the streaming service category, it should come to be seen more in line with its peers (now that it has them). Some key drivers of its stock value to consider:
- Netflix's Warner Brothers Discovery acquisition deal. Although it's not complete, it's presumed that the deal will go through eventually. The "will they, won't they" concern that's being kicked up by Paramount Skydance (PSKY -1.61%) could be pouring periodic ice buckets on the stock price, but should be temporary as the deal inches forward.
- Growth in ad-based revenue. At one point, all of Netflix's revenue came from subscriptions, which made for a very difficult business model to maintain. But as it has matured, it's gaining ground in the ad-based revenue business, and the sheer size of its audience makes advertising with Netflix pretty attractive. This is a plus to investors, since this creates more steady and ongoing revenue for Netflix than subscriptions alone.
- Industry consolidation. Again, the Warner Brothers deal is far from complete, but the fact that it exists signals a transition into some industry consolidation. This is not generally bad for stock prices, especially for the bigger companies involved. As the competition thins and streaming services drop out in favor of Netflix at some level, it has a lot more room to gain that market share.
