2026 forecast
Amazon expects to invest a staggering $220 billion in capex in 2026, up from $131.8 billion in 2025. Originally, it had forecast capex of $200 million but raised the estimate in the second quarter of 2026, citing rising memory chip costs. The company anticipates continuing to continue spending heavily on capex in 2027 as it seeks to capitalize on the massive opportunity to invest in AI.
This increased investment could help reaccelerate growth, especially for Amazon Web Services (AWS). Wall Street analysts estimate that the company could grow the revenue from this business alone by more than 30% over the next year. AWS revenue hit $42.2 billion in Q2 2026 -- a 37% year-over-year increase that marked its fastest growth pace in 18 quarters.
This growth reacceleration supports Wall Street's view that Amazon's shares could rise to $295 by the end of 2026. That’s more than a 30% gain from their late 2025 trading price ($225 per share). While I’m not quite as optimistic, I do think shares -- which were trading at $260 near the end of August 2026 -- are likely to remain above $250 through the end of the year as its growth rate reaccelerates.
2030 forecast
Amazon’s heavy capital investment cycle could continue for many years. According to McKinsey, companies will invest $5.2 trillion in AI data centers by 2030. They’ll spend another $1.5 trillion on data centers to support traditional AI workloads. As a leader in cloud computing, Amazon will likely need to spend heavily to keep up with the competition in the coming years.
This investment spending should drive robust revenue growth for Amazon. According to an estimate from Oppenheimer, each incremental gigawatt of capacity that Amazon adds to its platform generates $3 billion in annual revenue. It’s currently on pace to double its capacity through 2027.
AWS is only one of the company’s growth drivers. Amazon is also investing heavily to expand its e-commerce platform and advertising capabilities. It could conceivably grow its revenue at a double-digit annual rate over the next five years, and potentially produce even higher earnings growth. That could drive total returns well above 10% annually through 2030. I believe the share price could surpass $400 by 2030.
