On this week's Rule Breaker Investing podcast, Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner, with some assistance from Matt Argersinger of Million Dollar Portfolio, reviews the performance of a set of his stock picks made up of companies most folks won't have heard of.
Under the philosophy "invest in what you know," they wouldn't make the average list. But there can be diamonds in the rough, and when he did his one-year check-in last November, all were outperforming the broader market. And today? Well, listen in and find out. After that, David and Matt enjoy another round of the Market Cap Game Show, and you can play along.
A full transcript follows the video.
This video was recorded on Nov. 8, 2017.
David Gardner: Welcome back to Rule Breaker Investing. I'm David Gardner. A delight to have you with me this week.
What an October it was. I was looking back on the roster that we brought to you through Rule Breaker Investing. We had Peak author Anders Ericsson. We had "Nine Foolish Truths I Hold to Be Self-Evident." Kind of a restatement of "Nine Foolish Investing Principles." Then we went Blockchain and Bitcoin with Aaron Bush, we had your Mailbag, and then last week the inimitable Roy Spence. So a tough act to follow, Matt Argersinger...
Matt Argersinger: Oh, my gosh!
Gardner: ... my guest this particular week.
Argersinger: What a setup!
Gardner: It is. My effort here, Matt, is to set you up for success as I did last time. Because last time, as inveterate listeners will know [this is three months ago], we played a game. It was the Market Cap Game Show. We started a new game show on the show. And that's what we're going to play again this week because I had a lot of fun. Did you have fun, Matt?
Argersinger: Oh, it was a blast.
Gardner: Awesome. So that's how we're setting ourselves up for success post Roy Spence, hoping not to disappoint the fans.
There are actually two components to this podcast, though. The first is I want to do a brief review of stocks that I picked [one of those five-stock samplers] two years ago this week. We're going to lead off with just a look back at what's happened to those five stocks and then we're going to go into the Market Cap Game Show. And if you're new to the podcast, we'll explain the ground rules when we get there.
But first, it was the November 11, 2015 Rule Breaker Investing podcast. It was entitled "Five Lesser-Known Rule Breakers." The five companies, in alphabetical order, were Middleby (NASDAQ:MIDD), MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), NetSuite, NuVasive (NASDAQ:NUVA), and Trex (NYSE:TREX).
And I said at the time two years ago that one of the key components of this group of stocks are probably if you're mentioning them to a friend at a cocktail party they don't know what this company is. These are five lesser-known Rule Breakers. Smaller companies. I reviewed this one year ago, so if you want to go back and listen a year ago, you'll hear me [happily] saying I'm not this good because all five, after one year, were beating the market.
Now, again, two years ago on this podcast I said, "Here are five lesser-known Rule Breakers. Let's watch them over the next three years." So here we are, two years later, tapping back in. How have they done?
Well, we have some interesting changes from a year ago, Matt Argersinger. The first thing I want to mention is that the stock market is up 25% from two years ago, so every one of these stocks was competing against that plus 25 bogey, and again, a year ago all five were beating that bogey. And, in fact, NetSuite was in the process of being bought out by Oracle. But things and times have changed, and to foreshadow a little bit, as it turns out three of these companies are now losing to the market. Two are beating them. Here we go.
Middleby -- the commercial oven company and, increasingly, a dominant player, as well, in consumer kitchens -- is up 7% from two years ago versus the market plus 25, so Middleby is now down 18% to the market.
MicroStrategy, which has been the dog, is down 23% from where it was two years ago. Again, vs. the market plus 25 is a minus 48. So right now we're at minus 56 after those two stocks.
NetSuite. As I mentioned, NetSuite was purchased by Larry Ellison's Oracle and NetSuite, a year ago, was up 6% when the market was up 5%, so we'll give it a plus 1%. But that's still not very good. We're still minus 55.
I regret to inform you that NuVasive has also since declined against the market. NuVasive is up 10% from where it was a year ago, but that's still a minus 15 for NuVasive.
So it all comes down to rolling the dice on the last one in alphabetical order, Trex. Before we roll the dice, right now we're sitting at a minus 70. On average the stock market is up around 20% to 25%. These stocks averaging typically being behind the market by about 15% to 20%, so all a little up.
But what's happened here with Trex has been remarkable. Over the last two years Trex is up, from two years ago this podcast, 165%. That puts it in a plus 140 against the market. And Matt, I believe that for each of these five-stock samplers, which I've done every 10 podcasts, or so [and this around No. 130], I believe I'm still undefeated in terms of beating the market every time, but this one has gotten perilously close.
Argersinger: That's such a remarkable lesson, though. I mean, the fact that you can be wrong over two years, four out of five, and one [stock] can make up all the difference and a lot more. So I think net-net you're up roughly 70%?
Gardner: That's right, Matt. The number is plus 140 minus 70 is 70. So on average, again, the market, when you include the NetSuite buyout [which was just a plus six versus plus five], the market average is a 21% gain for these five, and these stocks average about a 35% gain thanks to Trex...
Gardner: Which gives a plus 14. So we're down a little bit from where we were a year ago, but I said a year ago I'm not this good. Don't hammer me when I end up going over five for one of these because it's going to happen at some point. So two of these five stocks are beating the market. One of them is inconsequential, but the last one, Trex, has been a home run. [Trex] is the outdoor decking company. Is this a stock that you hold, Matt? That you followed?
Argersinger: I don't own it and I haven't followed it very closely. We built a deck on the back of one of my rental homes a couple of years ago using Trex, so it really has become, I think, the go-to industry standard for [water]-resistant wood decking. All the contractors seem to be using Trex nowadays, so I'm not surprised it's had such an amazing run.
Gardner: Still a very lesser-known Rule Breaker and unknown company, I think, in the grander scheme. But yes, you're right. Composite decking, whether we're talking about in the home or in industrial circumstances. For example, here in Alexandria, Virginia, out on the waterfront they have a lot of the Trex decking.
Argersinger: That's right.
Gardner: You're right. It's [water] resistant. It's big. So enough with the lookback, but it's fun to see those five lesser-known Rule Breakers having changed a lot in the last year. Of course, this game's not over, so we'll check in one year from now and see how it all came out. I hope for some comebacks from Middleby, NuVasive, and MicroStrategy. Anyway, thank you for humoring me, Matt Argersinger, and now let's play our game show.
Argersinger: All right.
Gardner: So now it's time for Volume II of the Market Cap Game Show. So one quarter ago, one earnings quarter ago, Matt, I had you on the show. You were the only one who raised his hand [admittedly it was a last-minute request of our investing group]. You raised your hand and said, "I will play the game, David," and the game, as you know, is we're guessing at market caps of companies. Now, Matt, can you briefly explain what market cap is? Break it down for a new listener?
Argersinger: Sure. A market cap is a measure of the size of a company. Specifically, it's the price of the stock times the number of shares outstanding for the company. Let's give an example. If you're looking at a $10 stock that has one million shares outstanding, then the market cap of that stock for that company is $10 million.
Gardner: Simple math.
Argersinger: Simple math.
Gardner: And that's a very small number. That's not the kind of number we would ever feature for a stock...
Gardner: That would be a penny stock, but you're absolutely right, Matt. And what you and I did last time is we reflected that this is a fun game to play; not only because it forces you to ask what the actual price tags are on all of these companies out there, but when you're dramatically off one direction or another, sometimes it can suggest maybe that's a stock you should take a hard look at.
Argersinger: I think I recall from last time that Etsy was one of the stocks. I think I threw out a number like $5 billion for the market, or $3 billion. And it was less than $1 billion or right around $1 billion for Etsy. I was surprised at how small the company was. Relative to what I think of its brand presence in the marketplace, it just seems a lot bigger than what the market cap was.
Gardner: You're right, so that can be a good learning, and we might have that experience this week. We'll see.
Argersinger: I'm pretty sure we will.
Gardner: Now part of the fun of the Market Cap Game Show is it's for you, dear listeners, everywhere. Globally, Rule Breakers all, you're playing along with us. And let's go ahead with the #IBeatMatt and #ILostToMatt which we used last time. We'll be scoring Matt on these 10 companies, but you're scoring yourself, as well, so let's see how you do and let's see how our in-house professional ringer, Matt Argersinger, does...
Argersinger: Oh, boy...
Gardner: ... on the 10 companies that I've hand selected. Now, these are each interesting companies to me. Matt has no idea what I'm about to say. I dropped him a note yesterday saying, "Hey, Matt. No fair memorizing market caps of the stocks that we know." Then I realized I shouldn't have said that because if Matt was literally memorizing the market caps of all these companies, that makes him a better analyst and advisor here at The Motley Fool.
Argersinger: It does, and it shows you how dedicated I would be to try to win this game.
Gardner: You're darn right! And, in fact, dear listener, whoever you are and wherever you are, if you're starting to memorize some of these market caps, and winning the game, great. I guess that's kind of the point. But it would be a lot to memorize across hundreds and hundreds of companies of interest. Last time, Matt, I think you got six or seven...
Argersinger: I think it was six.
Gardner: Six, OK.
Argersinger: I'm going to bet the under for this.
Gardner: To me, anybody who gets four-plus is pretty good at this game. I mentioned last time, and I'll say it again. I'm Alex Trebek. I'm not playing. I'm slightly, probably rooting against the players, as Alex Trebek does. I'm trying to stump him a little bit, but we're going to have fun with this. So 10 companies. I'm going to present these alphabetically. We'll have a little bit of chit-chat about each one.
The game, to be clear. Matt, and you at home, will be guessing the market cap of these companies. If you are within 20% either direction, too high or too low, we still count you. You are within the band of correctness. And I'll be providing the math as we go throughout. So without further ado, Matt Argersinger, are you ready to play the Market Cap Game Show?
Argersinger: I am ready, David G!
Gardner: All right. Company No. 1. Matt, have you been to the dentist recently?
Argersinger: I have, actually, been to the dentist recently.
Gardner: Do you make a point of trying to go once a year, or so? Cleanings a couple of times a year?
Argersinger: Twice a year. My wife always knows the schedule. She says, "We're going to the dentist this week." I go. Get my cleaning. Checkup.
Gardner: Excellent. Well, I know that beyond just your experience at the dentist that you're very familiar with this company because it's rooted in your own past. We're going to lead off with ticker symbol ALGN. That's Align Technology.
Now this company -- for those who've seen others, or maybe you've tried the technology yourself -- is the Invisalign product, which is basically a replacement for metallic braces. It's a see-through way to correct your teeth that is preferred often by not just adults, but probably kids, too, these days. It's a hot technology. A lot of dentists putting it in out there.
Matt, the reason I know you know something about this company, at least, is because you're the one who brought it to Motley Fool Rule Breakers. The date was June 25, 2014 back when you were still on our Rule Breakers team. An earlier version of Matt Argersinger. But Matt, the stock at the time was at $54. Today it tips the scales at $245 a share. So I and many other Rule Breakers members thank you for an awesome stock selection.
Now, I'm not saying that because you picked the stock and it's been a five-bagger that therefore you'll obviously know the market cap. I'm not trying to create any pressure on you. Matt Argersinger, what is the market cap, within 20% either way, of Align Technology?
Argersinger: Because I remember roughly the market cap at the time of the recommendation in Rule Breakers several years ago, I think it's around $20 billion today.
Gardner: Bam! That might have been a softball. I will point out to my listeners that I didn't select it because it was a softball first. It happens to be alphabetically the first of the 10, but I'm glad we led off with it, Matt, because it let me give you some props for a great stock pick. One that has been bought by many Motley Fool members across services. It's been picked up in other services.
But Matt, you were back in there. It was three-and-a-half years ago. The stock has been a five-bagger and yes, as I checked just before the podcast taping today, it was at $19.6 billion, so $20 billion would be a pretty good guess. Now players at home, if you guessed anywhere between $16 billion and $24 billion, give yourself a check mark. You're tied with Matt one for one.
For the next company, the ticker symbol is one of those few companies in the world that has a ticker symbol that spells the name of a color, and the ticker symbol we're talking about is BLUE. Now Bluebird Bio (NASDAQ:BLUE) is a biotechnology company. It's got a big partnership with Celgene [kind of a sugar daddy for it], but it is one of those chimeric antigen receptor T-cell companies that we love in Rule Breakers.
And I'm pretty sure you, at least, like it too, Matt, because one of the things you do at The Motley Fool is you head up our Odyssey 1 mission in Supernova, and I believe Bluebird Bio is in your portfolio.
Argersinger: That's right. A two-time recommendation brought to us by SarahGen, who's on our team.
Gardner: Yes, Sarah Goddard. This is a stock that we first picked in Rule Breakers in January of 2015. It was about $95 then. And then I looked at it this summer, and I was like, "I think CAR-T technology sounds so promising." Immunotherapy. Some people know the story of President Jimmy Carter whose life was saved by this. Taking your blood out of your own body, correcting it, and then putting it back in and attacking, using your own immune system, the cancer that you have is very promising.
In fact, that's not the only CAR-T company we're going to be covering on the Market Cap Game Show this week, but as I mentioned, it was looking promising this June, so I rerecommended it at $109. I'm very happy to see it at about $146 today, so it's been a star performer, Bluebird Bio. Matt Argersinger, what is the market cap of BLUE?
Argersinger: This is going to be tough. For some reason the number $9 billion keeps hitting my head, but I think I might be underestimating the size of Bluebird Bio.
Gardner: And I'm sorry to say you're wrong on both counts.
Argersinger: Oh, gosh. Wow!
Gardner: Now you weren't far off. You were outside our 20% band, but you actually went too high. This company has a market cap of $7 billion. So if you at home guessed anywhere between $5.5 billion and $8 billion at the high end, give yourself a check mark on BLUE. Matt, not far off. I know Sarah has been instrumental in suggesting more biotech and calling this out, actually, as the year of biotech. She dropped me a note last fall and said, "I think biotech is going to be big in 2017," so props to Sarah.
Argersinger: And it certainly has been.
Gardner: The next company dominated advertising in the recent World Series of baseball here in the United States of America. The ticker symbol is CWH. Matt, have you spent much time in an RV over the course of your lifetime thus far?
Argersinger: I haven't. I haven't. But I've watched a TV show that has some kind of connection to this great company
Gardner: Yes, so I think you're going to recognize [it]. This is Camping World Holdings (NYSE:CWH). CWH is the ticker symbol. Why don't you describe a little bit of the television show that you've appreciated?
Argersinger: Sure. My wife and I are huge fans of a show called The Profit, which is a show on. The host of that show is Marcus Lemonis, who also happens to be the CEO of Camping World Holdings. The show is really interesting. It's essentially Marcus going around the country meeting with entrepreneurs or small businesses, making investments, and trying to help them turn around their businesses. It's a great show.
Gardner: A great show. And what have you learned about Marcus? What are one or two traits that you've taken away that you admire about him?
Argersinger: First of all, a solid business mind. He can just pull numbers [from] his head. But what I love about him is he's really interested in cultures and people, and so most of his time is spent on, "Hey, I like this person. This company. This group of people. How can I make them work better together and how can I help them achieve their dreams and their objectives?"
Gardner: And I've not seen The Profit on CNBC. Matt, when does it air if somebody's listening and says, "Hey! I'd love to see that show!"
Argersinger: It's one of those CNBC Primetime reality shows. I think it's like at seven or eight o'clock at night during the week, if it's in season.
Gardner: Check your local listings.
Gardner: Awesome. So Camping World Holdings, which I would say is the branded, dominant RV company at this point in time, is a Rule Breaker. We picked it last December. Matt, what is the market cap of Camping World Holdings?
Argersinger: I want to say it's $4.5 billion.
Gardner: And you got as close to missing it as you possibly could... and still make it. That was a good guess, Matt. It's at $3.7 billion today... so on the low end. Players at home: If you were at $3 billion or higher, you're good. You needed to be somewhere between $3 billion and $4.5 billion [Matt's guess of $4.5 billion], because that's where Camping World Holdings and Marcus Lemonis are today. Is this one of the stocks that you follow? I can't remember if this is in Odyssey 1.
Argersinger: No, we don't follow it yet in Supernova, but it's one that I've taken a look at. I thought the market cap was somewhere right below $5 billion, so I was a little too high, but glad I got the upper end.
Gardner: You sure did. Nice job. It's a really interesting company. It seemed like on Fox (NASDAQ:FOXA) (NASDAQ:FOX) every single time they opened back up coming back from the ads, you'd see Camping World right there as their dominant advertiser throughout the World Series, which I thought was kind of interesting for a smaller-cap company.
Argersinger: And I've heard there's been at least anecdotal evidence that RVs are making a comeback. Maybe that's because you have more efficient vehicles. Lower gas prices. I don't know. But there's also something about millennials being interested in RVs vs. other generations?
Argersinger: So who knows?
Gardner: I'm on the road again.
Argersinger: Maybe some tailwinds.
Gardner: Company No. 4. This is a company that everybody knows. Now whether everybody knows the market cap or not we're about to find out, but this is a company that everybody knows. The ticker symbol is DIS. Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS). It's been in the news recently. There's been some controversy about Disney.
I was reading the LA Times. Disney reacting negatively to a story that the Times had done about its relationship with the City of Anaheim and barring some of the LA Times journalists from a Disney showing. Something like that. And then some other film reviewer saying, "Well, I'm not going to go to the Disney showing or give the initial review until the movie is out," so we're seeing a little bit of that.
Gardner: But more recently [and this is really hot off the press within the last 24 hours], 21st Century Fox mentioning it may sell its film division [a lot of itself] to Disney, holding onto, of course, Fox, the television station, because Disney couldn't own two networks. That would be illegal. It couldn't have ABC and Fox and, of course, its sports.
A really dynamic company. Star Wars coming out later this year. A lot of people have been to Disney at least once before as kids.
Argersinger: Yes. I'll have to say I am excited about a potential Twenty-First Century Fox- Disney tie-up for really one reason. It's selfish. It's because I'm a huge X-Men fan, and Fox owns the long-term rights to X-Men, having acquired them from Marvel 15 or maybe 20 years ago.
Gardner: Ah, yes.
Argersinger: And I just [think] Fox has done a terrible job with the X-Men. If they came under Disney's house, along with the other Marvel superheroes, I think it would be much better.
Gardner: Have you watched any of the new show, The Gifted, on Fox, which is a Marvel X-Men show?
Argersinger: I haven't, because I just think it's going to be bad. I expect it to be bad coming from Fox.
Gardner: All right. Matt Argersinger [and everyone else], what is the market cap of Disney?
Argersinger: I think I'm going to nail this one. I think it's $160 billion or roughly.
Gardner: That was pretty darn well nailed. I mean, it fluctuates every day, so I had it as $157 billion coming to this podcast rounded to $160. You blew this one away, Matt. In fact, anybody who was anywhere within $126 billion to $188 billion, give yourself a check mark for stock No. 4. That's Disney. [Disney] has been, by the way, a 52-bagger for us in Motley Fool Stock Advisor since it was initially picked as Marvel [speaking of Marvel], back in June of 2002. 15 years ago to a 52-bagger. It's been an awesome company.
Gardner: One of the funny things about Disney, as you know in Stock Advisor, Matt, is that we've never actually picked Disney as a stock, but it's represented six times on our scorecards because four of those were Marvel picks and two were Pixar picks. Disney bought them both out, so now we have a lot of Disney.
And people wonder, "How did you get such a low-cost basis in Disney? It's not even possible to have bought Disney as a 52-bagger 15 years ago?" And the answer is if you buy a small company that Disney takes a liking to, takes a shine to, pays a premium and buys them out, you might actually have a low-cost basis in Disney. Longtime Marvel or Pixar fans recognize that. Good job, Matt.
So as we move to stock No. 5, Matt, three for four. Batting 750. Very impressive. Intimidating if I'm trying to play against you at home.
The next company is another universally known and, I would say, mostly universally loved name. A company that some people think Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) has within its sights. Matt, do you typically order a lot of stuff from Amazon or other e-commerce sites?
Argersinger: Weekly, from Amazon. And now that my wife and I are ordering groceries from Amazon, it has become much more frequent.
Gardner: And let me ask you about that. How's that going?
Argersinger: It's fantastic! We've been ordering Amazon Fresh for roughly six months, but since Whole Foods has been integrated, the amount of inventory grocery-wise that you can buy from Amazon has tripled, it feels like. We're essentially getting 95% of our groceries, now, through Amazon.
Gardner: That's tremendous. Now does a FedEx (NYSE:FDX) truck ever come out in front of the Argersinger abode and drop stuff off?
Argersinger: All the time.
Gardner: All the time. So Federal Express, the brainchild of CEO and longtime chairman Fred Smith of FedEx. This company is a ubiquitously known global name for... I won't say guaranteed, but confidently, most-of-the-time, on-time deliveries of lots of stuff to lots of people everywhere. FedEx. We know it. We love it.
Now some people think they're in trouble, because Amazon has drones. Amazon has new distribution. It can use some of the Whole Foods network to get stuff to people. And some people wonder whether Fred Smith's brainchild is going to get dinged. This is a stock we've held in Stock Advisor for a long time. Two positions. One initially in 2003. That's been a four-bagger, which has been good, but a few years later I picked it again in 2006 and that's doubled, but the market has more than doubled over the last 11 years, so that's been behind the market.
It's a great company. I'm very grateful for FedEx, but it's an interesting stock going forward. Did you see Fred's comments, recently, about how much he thinks e-commerce will become of the overall commerce pie globally?
Argersinger: No, I didn't.
Gardner: I'm probably misquoting him, but he said something to the effect of, "E-commerce will probably never be more than about 40%." And globally it's only 8%, now, so there's still huge growth expected, but it feels like there will always be room, I think, for FedEx. I don't think it's going to get run out of business anytime soon. Matt, what is the market cap of FedEx?
Argersinger: I think I might risk going high on this one, but I'm going to say $120 billion.
Gardner: Matt, you've had your first dramatic miss.
Argersinger: Ooh! Uh-oh.
Gardner: But that's part of what makes this fun. If you got three out of four every time, and it was always close when you missed [because it was close when you missed earlier], it wouldn't be any fun. FedEx's market cap is $59 billion.
Argersinger: Oh, my gosh!
Gardner: So it's about half of what you thought it was, which to me suggests that maybe you want to take a hard look at FedEx stock.
Argersinger: It seems that way. Maybe is that big. I don't know. But it just seems that as one of the main package delivery companies in the world it should be bigger.
Gardner: So playing at home, if you were anywhere between $47 billion and $71 billion, give yourself a golden point. Al right, company No. 6. Matt, have you ever had robot surgery of any kind? Anything even close to it?
Argersinger: Well, I did get surgery last year.
Gardner: Yes, you did.
Argersinger: I had neck surgery and I honestly don't know if there was any robotics involved. But there were great surgeons, involved. They were really helpful and the surgery was successful.
Gardner: Matt, I'll say it's clearly been successful and I'm really happy. I remember seeing a picture of you. This was not a typical surgery in that it wasn't in your hometown or anything.
Argersinger: No, my wife and I were actually in Berlin, Germany of all places. I was there working for The Fool with our Germany team. I had had back pain throughout the summer and the fall, and it was so bad at one point [this was late October of last year] that I wasn't sure what was wrong. I got an MRI and it turned out I had a completely prolapsed disc, which is a slipped disc in my lower neck, which was causing terrible pain. At the time I thought, "Well, I guess I'll have to fly home to the States," because the recommendation was that I had to get surgery to fix this. That I might have long-term nerve damage. The doctors were insistent that I get surgery right away. I said, "No, wait, I'm in Germany." And they said, "No, you have to. You can't fly home. It's too risky." So within 48 hours of the MRI I had surgery. I got an artificial disk. It's a titanium disk that's down my lower neck, but it's been great. I have full flexibility. No more pain. No back problems.
Gardner: Outstanding. Nobody wants pain for any of their friends, but to think that it all happened in Germany... I know you speak some German and you've been helping out Fool Deutschland, but I'm so glad to hear how well treated you were, there. And you didn't need the da Vinci Surgical robot for that particular surgery.
Argersinger: I did not.
Gardner: But it is the dominant robotic surgery platform of our time. It comes from ticker symbol ISRG. The company is Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG). This has been one of our best long-standing performers in Motley Fool Rule Breakers. If you're a Rule Breaker... And darn it, if you're not already subscribed to Motley Fool Rule Breakers, come on home! Find us at Podcasts.Fool.com and you can see an ad for joining Motley Fool Rule Breakers.
I know a lot of us are Rule Breakers members listening and therefore you know, if you are a longtime member, this has been the third-best stock yet picked in the service. It's been a 26-bagger since first being picked about 12 years ago in Motley Fool Rule Breakers. Matt, what is the market cap of Intuitive Surgical?
Argersinger: I went way high with FedEx. I have a feeling I'm going to go low here. I'm going to say $40 billion.
Gardner: That is a winner!
Argersinger: All right!
Gardner: Well done. $44 billion is the correct answer, so players at home, anywhere from $35 billion to $53 billion, if that was your guess; give yourself a check mark.
You know, Matt, it's funny to think about Intuitive Surgical. Again, the third-best performer. Do you know what either of the top two stocks in Rule Breakers is?
Argersinger: I can definitely name one of them, and that's Baidu.
Gardner: Yes, that is the No. 1 performer. You're right. It's up 29x, so Intuitive could catch it. We'll see. The other one is also a Chinese company and it's NetEase.
Argersinger: Yes, and now that you say it, I know it. It's just extraordinary. And not knowing many Rule Breakers, that's certainly one a lot of people don't know.
Gardner: I agree. That company is actually up almost identically to Intuitive Surgical. Just before taping this podcast it was 2% behind as a 26-bagger. But one of the things I love about that -- I like to point this out and I've done this before on the podcast -- is our two best performers in Motley Fool Rule Breakers history are both Chinese companies and this is over a decade or so. How often have I heard people say, "I would never buy a Chinese stock. I don't trust the financials. I don't know about the government." Those kinds of things.
And yes, succeeding in investing usually involves taking some risk, and we probably did take some more risk than normal in order to buy into those Chinese companies. But look how wonderful it is that those two companies are atop the RB standings, our Chinese friends. Now, that said, Intuitive Surgical is nipping at the heels, and Matt, you did a nice job guessing company number six.
The next company, company No. 7. The ticker symbol is JUNO. Matt, earlier I mentioned that we were going to be covering chimeric antigen receptor T-cell companies, and here's a second one of them. The reason why I wanted to highlight Juno Therapeutics (NASDAQ:JUNO), in addition to just the technology and its link with Bluebird Bio, is also that happens to be the No. 1 performing stock in the Supernova Universe over the last three months.
This is something that Supernova members will know. We track the performance of all 220 or so companies that Motley Fool Supernova focuses on, and we like to look sometimes [and ask], "What have you done for me lately?" I call it radiance. How brightly has the stock shined over the preceding 90 days?
It's sometimes a little bit of a momentum investor's statistic. That's not our key focus, of course, but I think it's fun to see what is performing well, and Juno Therapeutics is up 89% over the last three months... So it's smoking hot. Matt Argersinger, what is the market cap of Juno Therapeutics?
Argersinger: I went way high on BLUE. I'm probably going to go low on this, but I'm going to say $5 billion for JUNO.
Gardner: It's so close, Matt. You were so close to getting the correct answer. The band was $5.1 billion to $7.7 billion because the actual market cap of JUNO is $6.4 billion. So I think you were awfully close, but we have to play by the rules.
Argersinger: I'm out. I didn't get it.
Gardner: We need to be fair to our players at home. So if you were within $5.1 billion to $7.7 billion, you got it. Juno Therapeutics is a company that in the third quarter alone, just reported, spent $140 million in R&D. In just R&D. Yes, it's one of those money-losing biotechs, but the good news is they have just over $1 billion in cash.
And then one of the key measures we like to look at for money losers, especially biotech companies, is how much are they burning per quarter. And the most recent cash burn for the quarter was $54 million. So if you do the math, there, and multiply that by four, that comes out to about $200 million they're burning through in a year. They've got $1 billion in cash, some great partnerships, and lots of promise. So maybe that, in part, explains why Juno is up 89% in the last three months. So nice try, Matt. I wish I could give you that one. I really do!
Argersinger: I just came up short.
Gardner: But I can't. All right, Matt. I have you with four right, three wrong. Let's go to company No. 8. This one hurts. It hurts today, very specifically. Again, we're taping on Tuesday, November 7 in the afternoon. It's one of our biggest holdings in Motley Fool Stock Advisor. It's one of my personal biggest holdings.
The stock is down around 12% after earnings that were outstanding reported yesterday at Monday's close, but guidance that was a little disappointing, although this company has many times before done a little bit of sandbagging with the guidance that it gives.
The ticker symbol is PCLN. This is Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN), the dominant global travel company. A company that has great presence both in Europe and in Asia, as well. Certainly as its original website, thinking back to those William Shatner ads. William Shatner singing. Priceline of yore.
The company today, as we tape, is down $236 a share just in one day, but given that the stock is now down to $1,665, that's not so bad. Not as bad as it sounds. We have very few companies that lose $236 a share in any day in any of our portfolios; but that's what Priceline is doing today after earnings. Matt, what is Priceline's market cap?
Argersinger: I'm going to get this wrong. I'm going to say $85 billion.
Gardner: Bam! You nailed it again. Well done, sir.
Argersinger: And is that taking in today's loss?
Gardner: Yes, it is. That was a little bit of a trick question. I thought Matt might well know the company's market cap. This is one of our bigger, better-known holdings; but, since it's been dramatically repriced in the last day or so, I thought I might stump you, but I didn't stump you. The correct answer was $82 billion, so Matt's $85 billion is easily within the band of $56 billion on the low side and $98 billion on the high side. So players at home, Rule Breakers all, if you've guessed anywhere from $56 billion to $98 billion you got that one right as did Matt.
All right, we're running out of time fast, so we've got to accelerate here, Matt. We're down to our final two. You're five out of eight, so far. Last time you were six out of 10, so it will be interesting to see where we go here for these last two.
Argersinger: If I could match six, I'd be pretty happy.
Gardner: You already passed our par. I think par for the course for the game is four out of 10, so you've already passed that. Let's see how good a golfer you'll be.
Company No. 9. Now Matt, I didn't know you back in college. I believe you went to Brandeis?
Argersinger: That's right.
Gardner: Could you just share briefly an experience or two of Brandeis? When you tell people that you went to Brandeis, what do you say about the school and people?
Argersinger: I think everyone naturally thinks, because it is a Jewish university, that I must be Jewish. Actually, I'm not. I was one of the small number of students that went to Brandeis that wasn't Jewish.
Gardner: I did not know that about the university.
Argersinger: But having that experience was really fascinating. To be in a school where the majority was Jewish, and to learn the traditions and gain friends coming from a different religion than my own was great.
Gardner: That's wonderful. And it is in your home state of Massachusetts.
Argersinger: That's right.
Gardner: Where is Brandeis in Massachusetts?
Argersinger: It's in a town called Waltham. There's actually several...
Gardner: Outlying Boston suburbs.
Argersinger: Right. And it's a kind of biotech hub. It's become a biotech hub since I left. It's about 15 miles outside of Boston.
Gardner: Now back when you were at Brandeis, I'm presuming there wasn't a lot of online learning possibilities.
Argersinger: Not in my era, no.
Gardner: I'm 51. I know you're significantly younger than I am, but I'm pretty sure companies weren't bringing in video cameras taping professors and trying to enable distance learning. People paying full tuition out of state, out of country sometimes to attend a college class.
Argersinger: Nothing like that.
Gardner: So the next company, company No. 9. The ticker symbol is TWOU. 2U (NASDAQ:TWOU). This is a company for profit, that partners with fine universities. Brandeis might well be one of them. It's an increasing number today. Cal Berkeley. I see UNC Business School. I see Georgetown University and others. And 2U partners with them to bring them students that they would never otherwise have had, because they're students who aren't living on campus. They're distance learning. They're paying full tuition, and 2U's main aim is to give you the best experience you can.
Their tag line is something like, "No one sits in the back row." You should feel like in you're in the front row as you pay tuition through 2U to attend and get a degree from one of these acclaimed universities. That's the business model for 2U. It's a local company in the greater D.C. area. The CEO is Chip Paucek. A really nice guy. A great background. He's been to The Fool, before, and spoken to us. I like Chip a lot. Matt, what's the company's market cap?
Argersinger: A complete shot in the dark because I've never looked at 2U. It sounds really interesting.
Gardner: I think you should, by the way.
Argersinger: I think I should. I'm going to say $4 billion.
Gardner: Well, give yourself a gold star, Matt, because you just hit your six from last time.
Argersinger: All right!
Gardner: You got this one right. Company No. 9 -- the correct answer was $3.3 billion, so if you were anywhere from $2.6 billion to $4.0 billion, you got this one right. This is a really interesting company, because they have one of those winning models, which is hard to do in for-profit education.
And the stock I first picked it in July of 2016, so two summers ago. It was at $35.25. And then three months later in October of last year, I was thinking, "I like this company just as much as I did three months ago. It hasn't moved." So I recommended it again, and now I'm happy to say from $35 it's gone to $63, so both of those positions up 75% or so in the last year and a half. Still a small company that many people haven't heard of.
Argersinger: That's very interesting.
Gardner: One thing they do is they partner with universities for like 10-year partnerships, so they really can grow and build together. Then universities get free tuition they never would have gotten otherwise and cut a healthy slab of that back to 2U. That's the business model. It seems to be working.
Let's close it all out, here, with company No. 10. Matt, a lot of furniture around the house?
Argersinger: Oh, yeah. Too much, sometimes.
Gardner: Too much. Where would you typically have gotten those? Are those antiques? Are those hand-me-downs? Do you guys go to Ikea and just get all the new stuff?
Argersinger: We've definitely gone to Ikea. We actually have some outlet stores that we've gone to where you get some second-hand stuff here and there and fill it out. Fill the house out.
Gardner: Have you ever ordered any of that furniture online? Via e-commerce with, let's say, a FedEx delivery?
Argersinger: I have not, but we're certainly considering it now that we know what's out there.
Gardner: So the ticker symbol for this company. It's one of the 26 or fewer companies in the world that has a single letter ticker symbol. It's W and this is, of course, Wayfair (NYSE:W). Wayfair the online, e-commerce portal for people ordering furniture. Of course, a competitor to Amazon, but seemingly competing fairly successfully, here, and still at an early stage. Matt, and everyone at home, what is the market cap of Wayfair?
Argersinger: I'm going to go with $7 billion.
Gardner: Well, let's lock you in at 6 out of 10...
Argersinger: Oh! All right. All right.
Gardner: ... once again, this quarter, Matt, because you got close but unfortunately not close enough. The market cap for Wayfair is $5.3 billion so on the low end $4.2 billion. On the high end $6.4 billion. Anything from $4.2 billion to $6.4 billion give yourself at home a check mark. You got this one right. Matt, it's been a really interesting company. We picked it in August of 2015 at $43. It's gone to $60, which is great. It feels great. That's a 41% gain, but the market over the same period is up 40%, so it's really only 1% ahead of the market. Would you consider using Wayfair? Have you ever tapped into the site?
Argersinger: I've definitely looked at the site. My wife loves the site. I think we've come close a couple of times to clicking "Buy" on there and we, for whatever reason, haven't. But I certainly think there's a market for what Wayfair has to offer as people get comfortable buying furniture online. I think a lot of people just aren't comfortable there.
Gardner: All right. Props to Matt Argersinger for joining me once again for this quarter's Market Cap Game Show, Volume II. Matt, you did a great job. Six out of 10 again. Par is four out of 10. Everyone listening at home; you beat Matt if you got seven or more. You lost to Matt if you got five or fewer. #IBeatMatt. #ILostToMatt. It's fun to see that out on Twitter. Matt, thanks a lot and I hope you have a wonderful holiday season.
Argersinger: Thanks, David! You, too.
Gardner: All right. You can check out past episodes of Rule Breakers and all of the Motley Fool's podcasts at our Podcast Center. Just go to Podcasts.Fool.com, and while you're there you can check out our flagship service, Motley Fool Stock Advisor from which many of the companies we've talked about today are drawn.
Now a new issue of Stock Advisor comes out the third Friday of the month. It has two new stock recommendations from me and my brother Tom Gardner. It also comes out with our lists of Best Buys Now; companies that we cover in Stock Advisor that we like for new money right now for the next three-plus years forward. You can check it out by going to the Podcast Center. Scroll to the bottom of the page. That's Podcasts.Fool.com.
Or check out RuleBreakers.com; again, where many of our companies were drawn from today that Matt did such a good job guessing at. To learn more about that service that focuses on disruptive growth companies, just check out RuleBreakers.com to find out more about companies like Tesla, Wayfair, and MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI).
And finally, we'd love it if you'd leave us a review. What do you think of Rule Breaker Investing? Whether you're on iTunes, Spotify, or whatever your portal of choice, leave us a review. Throw me some stars. Let us know how we're doing in this podcast.
Thank you to my producer, Rick Engdahl, as always. We look forward to joining with you next week with something entirely new and Foolish. Fool on!
As always, people on this program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. Learn more about Rule Breaker Investing at RBI.Fool.com.
John Mackey, CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. David Gardner owns shares of Amazon, Baidu, FedEx, Intuitive Surgical, MercadoLibre, Middleby, NetEase, NuVasive, Priceline Group, Tesla, and Walt Disney. Matthew Argersinger owns shares of Amazon, Baidu, MercadoLibre, Tesla, and Walt Disney and has the following options: short December 2017 $900 puts on Amazon and short December 2017 $250 puts on MercadoLibre. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Align Technology, Amazon, Baidu, Bluebird Bio, Celgene, Intuitive Surgical, MercadoLibre, Middleby, NetEase, Priceline Group, Tesla, Trex, Walt Disney, and Wayfair. The Motley Fool owns shares of Oracle. The Motley Fool recommends 2U, Camping World Holdings, Etsy, FedEx, Juno Therapeutics, MicroStrategy, and NuVasive. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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