What happened
Up 20% on Friday, down 40% on Monday -- if you're a momentum kind of investor, trading on volatility, you've got to love Intelsat (I +0.00%) stock, which is producing big opportunities to profit on both the up- and downsides daily. Today's gains look to be on the upside, with Intelsat stock bouncing up a good 16.3% as of 11 a.m. EST.
You can thank investment banker Raymond James for this.
Image source: Getty Images.
So what
Impossible as it may seem to predict whether any given day will be incredibly good or disastrously bad for Intelsat, this morning Raymond James made the argument that, with Intelsat stock off about 75% over the past 10 days, a lot of risk has been squeezed out of the stock, leaving more room for upside than downside.
As the analyst explained: The initial plan in Congress was to permit an auction (either public or private) of C-band wireless spectrum by Intelsat and its fellow satcom companies, with the companies handing over 25% of the proceeds to the U.S. Treasury. More recent developments in the U.S. Senate now lean toward a public auction (which could take longer to complete) -- and a 50% handover of net proceeds to the government.
Now what
Inasmuch as past auctions, however, averaged "gov't stakes of ~20-40%," Raymond James is betting that "that is a more likely final outcome." And if this proves to be the case, the sell-off in Intelsat stock may be overdone, because once the dust settles, Intelsat should come out of this process with more money than investors are giving it credit for currently.
Accordingly, Raymond James is upgrading Intelsat stock to outperform with a $12 price target -- and investors are taking their cue from that upgrade, and buying Intelsat stock again.
