It was a bad week for investors. The "three stocks to avoid" in my column last week that I thought were going to lose to the market -- Stitch Fix, Lennar, and Coinbase Gloal (COIN -9.09%) -- fell 11%, rose 2%, and sank 16%, respectively, averaging out to a 8.3% decline.
The S&P 500 experienced a relatively kinder 4.6% move lower, so I was correct. I have been right in 31 of the past 49 weeks, or 63% of the time.
Now let's look at the week ahead. I see Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL 2.84%), Rite Aid (RAD -27.27%), and Lennar (LEN -2.36%) as stocks you might want to consider steering clear of this week. Let's go over my near-term concerns with all three investments.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store
One of the companies reporting fresh financials this week is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. The chain of restaurants with attached retro gift shops will serve up its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Tuesday morning. And the report won't be pretty.
Analysts see a reasonable 7% year-over-year revenue increase, but earnings per share is expected to plummet 38%. Rising food and labor costs are hurting, but it also doesn't help that many of Cracker Barrel's 660 restaurants are located in rural locations along major highways. They're at the mercy of vacationing drivers over the summer, and with rising gas prices and a wobbly economy, we're likely to see fewer road trips.
It gets worse. Analysts have overestimated Cracker Barrel's bottom-line results every quarter over the past year. If the trend continues, we're talking about an earnings drop of more than 38%.
2. Rite Aid
Drugstore operators have historically been all-weather investments. You still need to fill your prescriptions in good times and bad. The stores are always nearby and have generous operating hours for other essentials. Rite Aid, unfortunately, has been a laggard in its field. It has posted single-digit revenue growth or worse in 12 of the past 13 fiscal years, and the top line declined in five of those years. It has posted annual losses for four consecutive fiscal years, and analysts see the red ink flowing through at least the next three years.
We also need to talk about Rite Aid's debt. Despite its market cap of less than $400 million, it packs an enterprise value of $6.5 billion because it has more than $6 billion in long-term debt. With borrowing costs on the rise, it will be even harder for Rite Aid to claw its way out of its heavily leveraged situation.
Rite Aid reports its fiscal second-quarter results on Thursday morning. Wall Street's holding out for another decline in revenue and widening deficit. The near-term outlook is gloomy, and there's nothing that can be prescribed to remedy the financial malady.
3. Lennar
The Florida-based homebuilder was the one stock I picked last week that moved higher. It posted mixed earnings results last week, as revenue fell shy of expectations, but it held up better than analysts were targeting on the bottom line.
The next few quarters could be rough. Lennar warned last week that cancellations are above historical averages, and with home prices starting to drop, that's not a surprise. Mortgage rates have surged in recent months, and that's creating a glut of supply as potential homeowners have less financing power than before. Lennar has flexibility in that it can offer its customers financing options, but the real problem here is that home prices in general are cooling down and actually dropping in many markets.
It's going to be a bumpy road for some of these investments. If you're looking for safe stocks, you aren't likely to find them in Cracker Barrel, Rite Aid, and Lennar this week.
