Currently, only two public companies have a market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion: Apple and Microsoft. But the global economy will continue to grow in the coming years, and more companies are sure to reach that threshold in time. Here are two growth stocks that could join the $2 trillion club by 2033.
NASDAQ: AMZN
Key Data Points
Amazon: The most likely candidate
Amazon (AMZN +0.34%) currently has a market cap of $1 trillion. That figure would need to grow at 7.2% annually over the next 10 years to reach $2 trillion by 2033, which is certainly doable. Amazon has positioned itself as a key player in e-commerce, cloud computing, and digital advertising, three markets forecasted to grow at a double-digit pace through the end of the decade.
Bears may point to Amazon's weak financial performance last year. Indeed, revenue rose 9% to $514 billion and cash from operations ticked up a mere 1% to $46.8 billion. But those results say more about the economic climate than Amazon. High inflation simultaneously brought about a deceleration in consumer spending and an acceleration in operating expenses, putting pressure on the top and bottom lines. But economic headwinds will fade eventually, and Amazon will still have a strong presence in three growing industries.
Brand Finance ranked Amazon as the most valuable brand in the world in 2023, a distinction that underscores the popularity of its marketplace among consumers. Indeed, Amazon accounted for 38% of online retail sales in North America and Western Europe last year, and it operates the most visited marketplace on the planet. That puts the company in a good spot. Global e-commerce sales are expected to grow at 14% annually through 2030.
Additionally, the popularity of the Amazon marketplace has allowed the company to build a booming advertising business. Last year, Amazon ranked as the fourth-largest ad tech vendor in the world, and the company is taking market share from industry leader Alphabet. The ad tech market is expected to grow at 14% annually through 2030, according to Grand View Research.
But Amazon also dominates the cloud computing industry. Amazon Web Services (AWS) accounted for 32% of cloud infrastructure and platform services (CIPS) spending in the fourth quarter, nine percentage points more than second-place Microsoft, and AWS is well positioned to maintain that lead. It consistently sets the pace for innovation in the industry, and IT consultant Gartner recently noted that AWS offers the "greatest breadth and depth of capabilities of any provider." That portends strong growth in the coming years. The cloud computing market is expected to grow at 14% annually through 2030, according to Grand View Research
Here's the upshot: Amazon stock trades at a very reasonable 2 times sales, well below its three-year average of 3.5 times sales. If the company merely matches the growth rate of the broader e-commerce, digital advertising, and cloud computing markets, revenue will climb at 14% annually through 2030. At that pace, Amazon could reach a $2 trillion market cap by the end of the decade (let alone 2033) without any change in its price-to-sales multiple. Given its cheap valuation and upside potential, investors should consider buying a few shares of this growth stock today.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
Nvidia: The long shot
Nvidia (NVDA +1.67%) currently has a market cap of $675 billion. That number would need to triple to reach $2 trillion, meaning shareholders would see annual returns of 11.5% over the next decade. That makes Nvidia a long shot compared to Amazon, but the growing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) software across industries should be a powerful tailwind for the chipmaker.
Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs) -- semiconductors built to process large amounts of data very quickly -- are the gold standard in rendering realistic video graphics and cinematic visual effects, and in accelerating complex data center workloads like AI and scientific computing. In fact, Nvidia holds 90% market share in workstation graphics and supercomputer accelerators, and it has regularly set records at the MLPerf benchmarks, an objective event that measures the performance of AI technologies.
Financially, Nvidia struggled last year. Revenue stayed flat at $27 billion and earnings based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) fell 55% to $1.74 per diluted share. But the future looks brighter for two reasons. First, the inflationary headwinds that curbed demand for gaming and data center chips will eventually fade. Second, Nvidia announced a new subscription product, DGX Cloud, that will not only produce more stable revenue than cyclical hardware sales, but will also extend Nvidia's ability to monetize AI.
DGX Cloud provides on-demand access to AI supercomputing hardware and software. It includes frameworks that help developers build AI applications for self-driving cars, autonomous robots, recommender systems, and video analytics. Those applications have utility across virtually every industry. DGX Cloud also includes pretrained models that allow developers to build generative AI applications for language, visual content, and biomolecular design. In short, DGX Cloud means Nvidia is equal parts chipmaker and software vendor, and the market for AI software is projected to grow at 42% annually to reach $14 trillion by 2030, according to Ark Invest.
Currently, shares trade at 25.5 times sales, a good deal higher than the three-year average of 20.8 times sales, but that valuation multiple could come down quickly as the economy improves and Nvidia cloud services gain traction. Indeed, if Nvidia can grow revenue at 17% annually over the next decade, its market cap could rise to $2 trillion and its valuation could fall to a more reasonable 15 times sales. That prediction seems plausible given that the chipmaker grew revenue at 23% annually over the last five years, and the market for AI software is expected to grow like wildfire in the coming years.
