When a company decides to split its stock, it doesn't change any of the underlying fundamentals or value of the business. Nonetheless, it usually follows significant share-price appreciation, and it signals confidence from management that the future will see the stock continue to rise. As such, many investors flock to stocks when they announce forward stock splits as well as shortly after the splits occur.
This suggests investors may do well to take a look at companies that have the potential to be stock-split candidates. These companies still have plenty of upside left and a stock split could attract a lot more investor attention. Getting in before the stock split could work out nicely, even for long-term investors who are less concerned about timing a stock purchase. Even if these stocks never split their shares again, Wall Street still sees good upside for each.
Both Microsoft (MSFT +2.11%) and ASML Holdings (ASML +2.88%) have seen their share prices soar more than 600% over the past eight years. That's the kind of price appreciation that often leads to stock splits, especially since neither stock was starting from a small base. Meanwhile, the average analyst on Wall Street still sees significant upside for both.
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1. Microsoft: Up 622% from October 2016
Microsoft made an early bet on generative artificial intelligence (AI) leader OpenAI and sizably increased that bet in early 2023 with an extra $10 billion investment. As a result, Microsoft's Azure cloud computing platform has become the first stop for developers looking to build on top of large language models like GPT-4o. Not only that, but Microsoft's integrated generative AI capabilities across its various software platforms, including Github, Dynamics 365, Office 365, and the Power platform.
Its efforts have driven incredible results. Azure revenue climbed 30% in the fourth quarter. What's more, management expects Azure results to accelerate in the second half of fiscal 2025 as its massive investments in new data center capacity come online.
NASDAQ: MSFT
Key Data Points
Microsoft is also seeing strong uptake on its Copilot software, an AI-powered assistant that can help workers accomplish tasks more efficiently and effectively. Copilot customers for Microsoft 365 grew more than 60% sequentially in the fourth quarter. With over 400 million Office 365 users, Microsoft has a long runway for continued growth. Not to mention, the number of users continues to grow, as Microsoft dominates the workplace productivity software space.
The average price target among Wall Street analysts is $496, which implies about 19% upside for the tech giant's stock. At its current price, shares trade around 32 times forward earnings estimates. Considering the growth drivers pushing Microsoft's operating results and its competitive position, that high multiple is well worth paying for investors looking at growth stocks. Even at its massive size, Microsoft is growing quickly.
While shares have backed off of their all-time high price, they still trade well above $400. A split at this price is a reasonable maneuver for the third-highest-priced Dow component.
2. ASML Holdings: Up 694% from October 2016
ASML has also been a beneficiary of the booming demand for artificial intelligence. Its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines are essential hardware for printing the most advanced semiconductors in the market. ASML is the only company supplying those machines.
As companies like Microsoft and other hyper scalers build out massive data centers full of silicon, ASML stands to see the benefits over the long run. It's important to note that chip manufacturers, known as foundries, can't just expand their operations overnight. There are long lead times for ASML's massive machines: Not only do they need to take delivery and install them, they also need the space in the first place.
As such, ASML's management has called 2024 a transition year. It expects flat revenue and gross margin contraction as it ramps up production of its newest machinery for delivery in 2025. But 2025 should be a big year for the company. It expects 30 billion to 40 billion euros ($33.2 billion to $44.2 billion) in revenue, an increase of 27% from 2023 at its midpoint.
NASDAQ: ASML
Key Data Points
In the long term, ASML should see strong growth from unit sales and even better growth from ongoing servicing of its existing install base. In 2022, management forecast 44 billion euros to 60 billion euros ($48.1 billion to $65.6 billion) by 2030 with gross margin expanding to as much as 60% from about 51.5% today. Considering those forecasts preceded the boom in demand for AI chips, investors should expect revenue closer to the high end of that forecast.
The average price target among Wall Street analysts is $1,127, which implies about 33% upside for the stock. With shares trading at about 26 times 2025 earnings estimates, the shares look inexpensive relative to their earnings growth over the next few years. With strong forthcoming sales and expanding margins, analysts expect earnings growth above 20% for the next five years. That makes the stock extremely attractive at this price.
ASML shares are well off their all-time high, but shares trade around $850 each. That's plenty high enough to justify a stock split, but as shares climb above $1,000 and remain there, it could push the company to split its stock and bring the price back down to the triple-digit territory.
