Shares of restaurant company Wingstop (WING 3.86%) dropped 21.2% in February, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. On Feb. 19, the company reported its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, capping off its 21st consecutive year of same-store sales growth, which is a spectacular achievement. It expects to report its 22nd consecutive year of gains in 2025.
However, Wingstop's accomplishment is clouded by a clear deceleration trend in its growth rate. In 2023, the company's same-store sales in the U.S. were up by 18%. This was followed by an additional 20% gain in 2024. But in 2025, management only expects to grow same-store sales at a low to mid-single-digit rate.
NASDAQ: WING
Key Data Points
Wingstop is on pace for a major accomplishment. But the sharp drop in the growth rate concerns investors. For context, Wingstop stock is routinely one of the most expensive restaurant stocks around -- it still trades at a pricey valuation of over 60 times earnings, even after dropping 21% in February. Unfortunately for shareholders, lofty valuations often contract when growth slows.
Wingstop's bigger picture looks better
It's important to inject some more data into the Wingstop narrative. It's true that the stock dropped due to the slower predicted growth rate in 2025. But the company's growing its top line in more than one way. Same-store sales growth is one metric, but the brand is also opening new locations at a stunning pace.
In 2024, Wingstop opened a record 349 net new locations. For 2025, it expects to open around 360 to 380 new restaurants. To be clear, almost all of its 2,563 locations are owned by third-party franchisees, and they'll be doing the majority of the new openings. But these franchisees love the opportunity and are clamoring to open as many as possible as quickly as possible.
In fact, Wingstop ended 2024 with a pipeline of over 2,000 new locations that its franchisees would like to open in coming years. That's the biggest the "backlog" has ever been. It's also a good sign, since the company aims to have 10,000 Wingstop locations someday.
Is Wingstop stock a buy?
Wingstop stock is a classic dilemma for investors. On one hand, management has lofty long-term financial goals, and it's consistently one of the best-run restaurant companies. On the other hand, the stock almost never looks like a good bargain.
It's down 46% from its all-time high as of this writing. This is already the third-largest pullback for Wingstop stock since it went public nearly 10 years ago. At a minimum, I believe that this should land the stock on investors' watch lists.
Wingstop stock still might not look like a bargain, but valuing high-growth companies is intrinsically tricky. For investors who intend to hold for the next decade or so, now may be a good time to start building a position in Wingstop. The business remains rock solid, management has ambitious long-term goals, and the stock rarely dips this much.
