The value of gold has increased faster than both stocks and bonds since the start of 2024 as growing uncertainty has led investors to seek safe havens. Despite the strong performance of the asset, many still feel it could be a great investment today, considering the world's political environment looks just as shaky as ever. But if you ask Warren Buffett if you should invest in gold, the answer is a clear and resounding "No."
Analysts at J.P. Morgan disagree. Despite gold climbing about 60% in the last 18 months, they see the precious metal rising another 25% in value through the end of 2026, reaching $4,250 per ounce. But over the long run, there are some very good reasons why the asset will likely underperform stocks.
Gold Price in US Dollars data by YCharts
Here's what Buffett thinks about gold, and how long-term investors can easily outperform it.
Should you buy gold? Buffett is clear.
The investment case for gold is that it's a hedge against inflation. If the dollar declines in value (as it has in recent months) the value of gold will increase relative to the dollar. That's because gold is rare. While gold mining companies are constantly digging it out of the ground, the process isn't cheap or easy.
Buffett suggests there are much better ways to maintain the value of your dollars. "Gold would be way down on my list as a store of value," he told investors at Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A -0.70%) (BRK.B -0.48%) 2005 annual shareholder meeting. "I would much prefer owning a hundred acres of land here in Nebraska, or an apartment house, or an index fund."
Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway's longtime vice chairman and Buffett's friend, was much more blunt. "Gold is a dumb investment," he told the audience.
Both of their points were that there are better opportunities, specifically assets that they would call "productive." That is, they have some level of utility beyond looking shiny, being highly conductive, and never corroding (which can be great for jewelry and electronics, but not much else).
Image source: The Motley Fool.
An ounce of gold will still be an ounce of gold in 100 years. An acre of farmland will still be an acre of land in 100 years. The difference, Buffett says, is that you got to use the land to grow crops and generate income during those 100 years while your ounce of gold probably just sat in a safe somewhere.
A good business, like a farm, can protect against inflation because the value of what it produces won't change substantially. As such, in times of inflation, the price of its produce will increase, and the value of the asset will increase as well. Better yet, if you take the income from the asset and reinvest it in expanding (buying more farmland, adding another apartment, finding a new business to start or invest in), you can grow your wealth dramatically.
Berkshire Hathaway itself may be the ultimate example. When Buffett took over Berkshire Hathaway in 1965, gold was worth about $35 per ounce. It's increased nearly 100-fold in the 60 years since. Berkshire Hathaway, on the other hand, is up about 58,664-fold.
What should you buy instead of gold?
Buffett's advice for average investors is straightforward and simple. The best investment for the average individual is an index fund like the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO -0.26%).
While Buffett points out examples like farmland or apartments, those investments require management to be truly productive. He personally prefers to invest in individual companies. But those require attention as well, even if every publicly traded company has a board of directors and management in place already.
If you want returns better than the market average, you'll have to do a lot of work. Even then, the best and brightest minds on Wall Street still struggle most of the time.
So, for most people, a passive investment style where you simply buy and hold an index fund works best. A person who consistently adds money saved from their earnings to an index fund portfolio that produces average returns can end up with a level of wealth that's well above average.
There's no need to diversify with other asset classes for long-term investors who can weather the ups and downs of the stock market. Even if you agree with J.P. Morgan's analysts that gold will continue to run higher through the end of next year, it's highly unlikely an unproductive asset outperforms a portfolio of productive assets over the long run. Those looking to tame the volatility of stocks may do better with government bonds. Buffett certainly thinks it's a better place to park cash than gold while he looks for Berkshire's next big stock purchase.
