Apple introduced the first iPhone at the Macworld Conference in 2007. Former CEO Steve Jobs explained the product as a combination of an iPod Touch, mobile phone, and internet communications device. "iPhone is a revolutionary and magical product that is literally five years ahead of any other mobile phone," he said.
While not the first smartphone, the iPhone redefined the product category and quickly became the industry standard with its touchscreen interface, virtual keyboard, and ability to serve multiple use cases (i.e., music player, web browser, phone) with a single device. But it stands to reason the smartphone will eventually be replaced by another revolutionary technology.
Meta Platforms (META -1.21%) CEO Mark Zuckerberg thinks smart glasses will gradually replace smartphones in the next decade. His company is already the market leader with its Ray-Ban Meta AI glasses, but Zuckerberg believes augmented reality displays will make the technology truly transformative.
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Meta Platforms is the smart glasses leader, and it's Orion augmented reality glasses could be the next big thing
Meta Platforms leads the nascent smart glasses market, which tripled in size last year and is forecast to grow faster than 60% annually through 2029, per Counterpoint Research. Meta holds more than 60% market share with its Ray-Ban smart glasses, which let users listen to music, take photos and video, and query its artificial intelligence assistant Meta AI. But the company has grander aspirations.
Meta last year unveiled Orion, its first smart glasses with true augmented reality (AR). The glasses will feature a large holographic display that blends the physical and digital worlds by overlaying the field of view with content like video and applications. The Orion AR glasses will be controlled with eye movements and an EMG (electromyography) wristband that turns electrical signals into digital commands, letting users swipe, click, and scroll through content.
Imagine you're watching Netflix, but rather than streaming the content on a television screen, the glasses will overlay the physical world with a holographic display. What happens when you get a text message? The smart glasses could show a second holographic window that lets you reply. Now let's say you see someone wearing a stylish outfit in that Netflix show. You could ask the AI assistant for details about the brand and price. Meta hopes to achieve all that and more with Orion.
I'm not convinced smart glasses will ever completely replace smartphones, but I do think they will reduce their importance in much the same way smartphones reduced our reliance on computers. If smart glasses do indeed become the next big consumer electronics product, Meta could be the Apple of the next decade because of its market leadership. But there are other reasons to own the stock today.
Meta Platforms is outpacing the broader ad tech industry, and AI is strengthening its business
Meta Platforms reported strong second-quarter financial results that beat estimates on the top and bottom lines. Revenue increased 22% to $47.5 billion, operating margin expanded 5 percentage points, and GAAP net income increased 38% to $7.14 per diluted share.
Investors have good reason to think Meta can keep its momentum. It is the second largest ad tech company worldwide because of its popular social media properties, and ad tech sales are forecast to grow at 14% annually through 2030, according to Grand View Research. But Meta's advertising revenue could grow more quickly because of its investments in artificial intelligence.
CEO Mark Zuckerberg on latest earnings call said, "AI is significantly improving our ability to show people content that they're going to find interesting and useful." Better algorithms led to a 5% increase in time spent on Facebook and a 6% increase in time spent on Instagram. More brands are also using Meta's AI creative tools, which increased ad conversions 3% on Facebook and 5% on Instagram.
In addition, Meta in June announced channel subscriptions and advertising in WhatsApp, the fourth most popular social media network by monthly active users. Plans to monetize the application create a new revenue stream Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak thinks could reach $3 billion to $6 billion by 2027.
Meta Platforms generated monster returns over the past three years, but the stock still trades at a reasonable price
Wall Street expects Meta Platforms' earnings to grow at 17% annually over the next three years. That makes the current valuation of 29 times earnings look quite reasonable, especially because the company beat the consensus earnings estimate by an average of 16% in the last six quarters.
Here's the bottom line: Meta Platforms stock generated a monster 338% return over the last three years because of booming ad sales, and investments in AI should further strength that portion of its business. But Meta is also the leader in the nascent smart glasses market, which could become another substantial source of revenue. Patient investors should feel comfortable buying a small position today.
