Lucid Group (LCID 2.51%) shareholders have had a rough ride recently. Shares fell so low earlier this year that the company executed a 1-for-10 reverse stock split in August -- only to see the shares fall even further in the months since.
Part of the problem is an ongoing backlash against electric vehicles and EV stocks. That isn't a surprise after years of hype. But part of the problem has been Lucid's execution -- while its EV technology is arguably the best in the business, sales have been stalled.
That's finally changing, and it might be a good reason to buy the stock now.
The biggest reason to buy Lucid stock now
Here it is: Sales are growing.
For its first few years of existence, Lucid had just one model: the Air luxury sedan. On balance, the Air is a solid product. While it has had some quality issues, the Air's range and performance are benchmarks for higher-end EVs around the world.
That said, sales of the Air haven't exactly taken the industry by storm -- not least because demand for sedans (versus SUVs) has declined in recent years.
Lucid spent much of 2025 ramping up production of its electric Gravity luxury SUV. Image source: Lucid Group.
That's why Lucid has added a second model, a big SUV called Gravity. Launched at the end of 2024, Lucid has been gradually ramping up production of the Gravity in 2025.
It now appears to be fully ramped: Lucid said last month that it expects to produce about 18,000 vehicles in 2025, with roughly half of that coming in the fourth quarter from its now-busy Gravity production line.
Eighteen thousand vehicles a year isn't enough for Lucid to break even, much less turn a profit. But given that it built only about 9,000 vehicles in 2024, it's a big step forward.
What will it take for Lucid to become profitable?
Lucid's current installed production capacity at its Scottsdale factory is about 90,000 vehicles per year. It can assemble another 5,000 or so per year at a small facility in Saudi Arabia, but let's focus on that 90,000 figure for a moment.
Auto manufacturing is a game of scale. There aren't many industries where the phrase "economies of scale" is more important than in autos.
There's an old rule of thumb in the auto business: Auto factories break even when running at about 80% of capacity. That might not apply precisely to Lucid's Scottsdale plant, but it gives us a rough benchmark to think about: Eighty percent of 90,000 vehicles per year would be 72,000 vehicles per year.
Somewhere around there, Lucid is likely to become profitable.
Here in late 2025, Lucid is still a long way from profitability. But with Gravity production hitting its stride, and with a new smaller model due around the end of 2026, that breakeven number will get closer. The stock price should rise as it does.
