At its peak, Plug Power (PLUG 2.84%) had a market capitalization exceeding $35 billion. Today, the pioneering hydrogen company is worth less than $3 billion. Meanwhile, its stock price is down 99.9% from its peak, currently trading at around $2 per share.
While Plug Power believes its best days still lie ahead, here's why the hydrogen stock might be yesterday's news.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The Plug Power of tomorrow
Plug Power is a firm believer that hydrogen is the future. That view is leading the company to invest heavily in building and operating a green hydrogen highway across North America and Europe. It built a state-of-the-art factory to produce electrolyzers and fuel cells. Additionally, it's building multiple green hydrogen production plants.
These investments position the company to capitalize on the expected growth in the hydrogen market. Forecasts project that the electrolyzer market will grow from around $3.8 billion last year to as much as $78 billion by 2030.
Plug Power expects to deliver rapidly rising revenue growth in the coming years. That puts the company on the pathway to profitability. Plug Power expects to exit next year producing positive earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). Meanwhile, it anticipates achieving positive operating income by the end of 2027 and reaching overall profitability as it exits 2028.
NASDAQ: PLUG
Key Data Points
Why Plug Power might still be yesterday's news
Plug Power's biggest issue over the years has been its inability to make money. For example, the company reported a net loss of $785.6 million through the first nine months of this year, on $484.7 million in revenue. That's causing it to burn through cash. Its net cash used in operating activities was $90 million in the third quarter.
As a result, the company has routinely had to raise outside capital from investors to fund its operations and growth, causing massive share dilution for existing investors. For example, it raised $370 million in October after existing investors exercised their stock warrants to purchase 185.4 million shares at $2 apiece. These share issuances have caused its outstanding shares to rocket a stunning 673% over the past decade.
On a more positive note, Plug Power estimates that it has raised enough cash this year to fully fund its current business plan. However, it has already done considerable damage to the stock. Plug Power has issued so many new shares over the years that it will be nearly impossible to dig out of the massive hole it has dug. While the share price could rise as Plug Power gradually reaches profitability in the coming years, there remains considerable risk that the company may need to raise additional capital in the future if the hydrogen market doesn't develop as quickly as anticipated.
Plug Power has too much to prove
Plug Power was once a promising company. However, years of losses have forced it to issue a boatload of stock to stay afloat, significantly diluting existing investors. While the company believes it's finally on track to reach profitability, it has had trouble living up to its promise in the past. I need to see some tangible progress before I'd consider buying Plug Power stock.
